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What is the impact of Sino-US tariffs on ordinary investors?

Edit: Po Niu Source: Jane Seven Readings Date: 2018-12-04

Summary:

The earlier tensions directly affected the stock markets of China and the United States. This peace talks at least conveys the signal that the trade war will not be further upgraded.

Today, the stock has risen. I believe that many of the small partners who invested in the stock market have long anticipated. After all, this weekend, your friends should see news like "significant good".

It is said that at the G20 summit just passed, the top leaders of China and the United States finally decided to suspend the previous trade friction after talks.

I believe that everyone's previous US tariffs, from 10% to 25% sharp rise is still fresh in memory. The Chinese goods involved reached 200 billion US dollars, not a small number.

But this time, at such a world-influenced summit, the top leaders of the two countries exchanged face-to-face and decided to suspend this tariff resolution, which is naturally good news.

So, what did the leaders of the two countries talk about? Will this wave of growth continue?

Today we will come and talk briefly.

Let’s first take a look at what the Chinese and American leaders have discussed. Summarize the following four points:

 1) agree to suspend the increase of customs duties,This means that the current tariff level will be maintained for the time being.

Previously, the United States claimed that tariffs would increase by 15%. The same domestic goods would be more expensive to export to the United States, and China’s trade advantage to the United States would be greatly impaired. It is no wonder that A shares have fallen sharply.

Now through the talks, the decision to increase tariffs has temporarily slowed down, at least in the short term.

2) China needs to import a certain amount of agricultural products, energy, industry and other products from the United States.Imports of crops, including soybeans, will be implemented immediately.

In other words, China needs to import some products from the United States to reduce the existing trade surplus advantage. Simple understanding is that you originally imported a lot of goods from me and made me make money. Now I also import more of your goods, and everyone makes money together.

 3) agree to impose technology transfer, protection, and non-tariff trade barriers within the next 90 days.Consultations on a range of issues other than tariffs, such as the agricultural services industry. If the two parties cannot reach an agreement after 90 days, then the previous clause on the suspension of tax increase will immediately become invalid.

4) China will list fentanyl as a controlled drug.

Although some of the issues have yet to be further discussed, but the trade friction that has not affected the previous period, at least three months off, is also a relief for investors.

What impact does it have on the investment of ordinary people?

Among these articles, the most concerned about everyone should be the escalating Sino-US tariff issue.

After all, the earlier tensions directly affected the stock markets of China and the United States. This peace talks at least conveys the signal that the trade war will not be further upgraded.

1. Short-term positive for China, the United States and even the global stock market, but long-term depends on the domestic economic development.

why? We must know that the level of tariffs determines the cost of import and export, and high tariffs will inevitably increase China’s import burden.

The suspension of the tax increase is naturally a breathing space for the market.

However, because of the current content of the talks, the US’s action to increase tariffs is only “suspended” rather than “revoked”. Therefore, this can only be regarded as a short-term positive.

Long-term development depends on the outcome of subsequent negotiations. Of course, what's more important is that "the iron is still hard to be hard", and our big A shares will ultimately rely on our own economic development.

2. Perfect intellectual property system

In the next 90 days, China and the United States will re-negotiate on aspects including forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection, network intrusion and theft, and non-tariff barriers.

It is believed that after the peace talks between the two sides, it will also be of great significance to the improvement of China's current intellectual property rights and cyber security and other related systems.

After all, protecting intellectual property is good news for all content creators. Especially for new media entrepreneurs like me, I feel the same. From this perspective, we are also looking forward to the continuous improvement of domestic copyright and intellectual property rights. This is also good news for listed companies related to publishing and culture.

3. Short-term negative impact on some A-share agricultural and pharmaceutical companies

Among the ones involved, one is the agricultural sector and the other is the pharmaceutical sector.

For agriculture, because China promises to import agricultural products such as soybeans to the United States immediately, this will have an impact on domestic agricultural demand in the short term.

If you are a friend who invests in the agricultural sector, you may wish to take a closer look at the main business of the investment company, whether it will be affected by this import adjustment.

Another key word is fentanyl. This is an analgesic that is said to be 50 times more potent than morphine, but it has been used by many illegal elements for drug trafficking.

This term may be unfamiliar to most of us.

But it is said that only 30,000 Americans died of excessive intake of fentanyl last year, and the main source of this drug is China.

Therefore, as a drug that was strictly prohibited by the US, such drugs were specifically listed as controlled drugs in this meeting, which also affected the pharmaceutical stocks involved in the A-share market to some extent.

For example, listed companies such as Renfu Medicine, Enhua Pharmaceutical, Chenxin Pharmaceutical, Xianyi Pharmaceutical, Hengrui Pharmaceutical, etc., have business related to fentanyl, and Renfu Medicine is at the forefront of fentanyl market share. the company.

Although the impact may be limited, but there are small partners in the relevant sectors, you can also pay attention.

After interpreting the content of the negotiations between the two sides, it is estimated that what you are most concerned about is that this is a "great profit". What should I do?

1. Don't worry, don't blindly bottom out

First of all, although this is a good thing, if you prepare a lot of "bottom-hunting" now, it is quite risky.

On the one hand, the outcome of the negotiations after the next 90 days is still uncertain; on the other hand, in fact, this positive factor has already landed, the stock market has also risen, and the subsequent impact will only become smaller and smaller.

2. May wish to take out part of the funds and participate in the stock market by means of fund investment.

Of course, the confidence of A shares before did receive the impact of trade friction. The hearts that everyone has hung before can also be put on hold for a while.

The confidence of investment is still a very important factor. In addition, the current overall valuation of A shares is relatively low, and there are many "cabbage stocks". In the long run, the growth opportunities in the future stock market are still quite large.

But it is not easy for ordinary people to choose stocks. In that case, it is a good time to participate in the stock market by means of fund investment.

Be patient with now, have more confidence in the future, everyone will share it together ^^

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