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The property market turning point, really come! Beishang Guangshen Hangxia Tianjin is falling

Time: 2018-09-19         Source: Property market reference         Author: Chao brother

The inflection point of the structural adjustment of the property market may have come!

01

Many people may still stay in the statistics of last week's statistical bureau showing that only one city in Xiamen fell.

Yesterday the Bureau of Statistics suddenly stated:

Zero tolerance for statistical fraud. In the future, the National Bureau of Statistics will adhere to the absence of restricted zones, full coverage, zero tolerance, adhere to heavy containment, strong high pressure, long shocks, further increase the intensity of statistical law enforcement inspections, and resolutely find together, investigate and deal with, and increase exposure.

This intriguing statement is actually telling me that the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics will be good, don't take it seriously.

What about the real market?

The real market is that as of the end of August 2018, there have been 807 land auctions in the country, with a cumulative construction area of ​​79.54 million square meters, 7.3 times the amount of the same period last year.

The real market is that there are price reductions in the new housing market in many first-tier and hot-spot cities. Major real estate developers such as Evergrande, Country Garden and Vanke are stepping up shipments; the second-hand houses that best reflect the real market are in Xiamen and Hangzhou. Representatives from Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen also experienced price declines or sluggish transactions.

The real market is that Poly, Vanke, Wanda, Longhu, Times and other housing enterprises have re-established their names this year. From the name of the company, they have launched “going to real estate”. The number of the brothers of this year has a special analysis, which can be viewed here.

In terms of policy, the scope of the lock building has been further expanded.

The strength is increasing compared to the previous one.

Since the beginning of this year, the policy of currency shed reform has been tightened, because of the city's policy; on July 31, the central government set a "resolutely curb housing price rise"; on August 7, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development called for speeding up the formulation of housing development plans and cities that have weak regulation of the property market. Responsibility; On August 17, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development met with the main responsible persons of the five city governments, including Haikou, and demanded that the market order be rectified and severely cracked down on speculation and curb housing prices.

In a market with such a strong policy and so weak liquidity, more is priceless and market-oriented, and more is market differentiation.

02

China's property market is now showing a relatively obvious differentiation phenomenon.

On the one hand, the third- and fourth-tier cities have reached the tail period of destocking, and the developer's desire to take the land under the control is very weak, and the inventory is not smashed, resulting in the current housing prices in many third- and fourth-tier cities, such as Yichang, Yangzhou, Fuyang, Hohhot, Wumuluqi and other cities.

This kind of fiery heat will gradually be resolved in the next replenishment stock, and Hohhot has announced that it will stop stocking. This article has also repeatedly reminded that for the support of non-rigid demand, the city's property market, which is only supported by currency sheds, needs special attention.

On the other hand, under the super-strong policy control of hotspot cities, house prices began to adjust.

According to data from the Leyou Home Market Research Center, the average transaction price of second-hand residential houses in Guangzhou in August was 24,280 yuan / square meter, down 6.2% from the previous month.

A 21st century economic report reporter found that the Guangzhou property market has recently seen significant price cuts, especially in the areas of Nansha, Luogang and Panyu, which have a large volume of goods.

Chain home data showed that the average price of second-hand housing in Beijing fell slightly by 0.01% in August.

Shanghai has seen a double drop in volume and price. According to the data of Shanghai Zhongyuan Research Institute, Shanghai's second-hand residential transaction volume in August was 12,985 sets, down 3.32% from the previous month. The average transaction price was 38,052 yuan/square meter, down 2.13% from the previous month.

From the average transaction price of 38,052 yuan / square meter, the current volume of Shanghai's main transaction should be in the outer ring and the suburbs. It can also be seen that the weakest resistance is far from the central area.

Shenzhen, where second-hand housing has been strong, has also seen price declines. According to data from the Shenzhen Soil and Resources Commission, the average transaction price of second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen in August was 55,011 yuan / square meter, down 1.95% from the previous month.

In the hot second-tier cities, the transaction price of most second-hand houses fell. According to the Shell Research Institute, Xiamen, Qingdao, Wuhan, Tianjin, Hefei, Hangzhou, and Chengdu fell 8.2%, 4.5%, 4.2%, 1.5%, 1.4%, 0.93%, and 0.74%, respectively.

03

From the performance of second-hand housing prices in cities such as Beishang, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou, the turning point of this round of property market regulation may have arrived. Next, prices in some cities will undergo structural adjustments.

According to the data, in addition to the large decline in Xiamen, Wuhan and Tianjin, other cities are not painful, compared with the monthly increase in the previous round of bull market, it is simply a small witch.

Still, don't think that the prices of these first- and second-tier cities will plummet and fall to your psychological expectations. This is almost impossible.

There are many factors that hinder the housing price drop in hot cities, the most important of which are:

1. The property market is still the mainstay of the Chinese economy. Although the government intends to adjust itself, this process needs to be gradual. The collapse in house prices will cause the collapse of the entire financial system, which is the result that the government does not want to see. This is the most critical.

2. The structural adjustment of housing prices in hot cities that are emerging is the result of strong policy pressures. Under strong pressure, the demand can only be temporarily curbed, and the suppression of demand does not mean that it does not exist.

3. The current land finance system and urbanization process have determined the situation in which China's central cities are prone to rise and fall, and also determine the price of central cities. Even if there are adjustments, they will rise sooner or later.

Therefore, if you put the adjustment into the long line, it is almost negligible.

Looking at the world, whether it is London, New York or Hong Kong, even the best city prices have risen and fallen, but the overall upward trend of good cities has never changed.

For example, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, the most memorable one was the 1998 plunge. At that time, under the impact of the Asian financial crisis and Tung Chee-hwa's "Eight Five-Year Plan", the entire Hong Kong property market experienced a six-year bear market, a cumulative loss of 62.2%.

But after seeing it more than 20 years later, it is almost negligible to put this bear market into the development of the property market since the reunification in 1997.

The above picture shows the house price index since Hong Kong since 1997. The green line is the performance of residential prices. It can be seen that the price has been declining from 1998 to 2003, but after 2003, house prices have risen again. In 2011, the average price of Hong Kong caught up with the level before the plunging, not only rose back to the six-year decline, but also hit new highs.

As can be seen from the trend of the line, in the past 20 years, despite the short-term adjustment in the middle, the upward trend has not changed. Not only Hong Kong, but also other big cities in the world.

China's mainland's north to Guangzhou and Shenzhen and Hangzhou, Wuhan, Qingdao, Xiamen, Chengdu, Tianjin and other strong second-tier cities will also be this trend.

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