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The property market is flooding? A series of signals indicate that major economic policies are undergoing major adjustments.

Time: 2018-09-18         Source: Leverage game         Author: Zhang silver silver

The expected release of water in the real estate sector does not seem to be complete; the net issuance of local bonds related to infrastructure has risen significantly.

When the monthly currency and credit data are released. The growth rate of social welfare has indeed begun to rise, but the currency data is not without concern. The three economists of CICC Yi Yi, Chang Hui Li and Liang Hong believe that.

On September 12, the central bank released data showing that in August, the scale of social financing increased by 1.52 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations. In this regard, the leveraged game also believes that the information transmitted by the August money and credit data is mixed.

On the one hand, after the adjustment, the social welfare ratio continued to maintain above 12% annual growth rate, and stabilized year-on-year, indicating that financial conditions began to stabilize.

At the same time, new RMB loans of 1.28 trillion yuan in the month were less than market expectations, but bill financing grew rapidly.

Not only that, the fiscal policy is still neutral, and it has a certain suppression of aggregate demand.

The point is, what does the above mean, how to influence the prospects of the property market, and where will the future monetary policy go?

Bank lending is still tight

In general, after a small rebound in July, the M2 year-on-year growth rate in August fell again.

According to preliminary statistics, the increase in social financing in August was 1.52 trillion yuan, 37.6 billion yuan less than the same period of the previous year. Among them, the data of M2 and new loans are lower than market expectations.

According to the data of the central bank on September 12, at the end of August, China's M2 balance was 178.87 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year. The growth rate was 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous year and 0.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year.

M1 year-on-year growth rate continued to fall from 5.1% in July to 3.9%.

It is not bad that CICC's research notes that after seasonal adjustment, the growth rate of M2 month (non-annualized) in August was flat at 0.9%.

In addition, RMB loans increased by 1.28 trillion yuan in the month, an increase of 183.4 billion yuan year-on-year. However, the leveraged game noted that the increase in August was mainly due to bill financing, indicating that actual credit demand is not as strong as imagined.

Reporters from the 21st Century Business Herald found that since April this year, bill financing began to grow rapidly. The scale of bill financing in April-August was 2.3 billion, 144.7 billion, 294.7 billion, 238.8 billion, and 409.9 billion.

After all, apart from local platforms and large state-owned enterprises, housing enterprises and private enterprises are not willing to lend, and there are both factors of bank credit willingness and constraints.

If you are cautious about making a corporate loan, you can use a bill. First of all, off-balance sheet business does not need to provide provisions; companies are also willing to invoice because the market discount rate is low. At present, the average interest rate of loans is slightly over 5%, while the discount rate of bills is around 4%. The head of a branch of the Central China Branch told the media.

Local debt growth is obvious

Throughout August, the leveraged game noted that the net debt of corporate bonds rose significantly to 337.6 billion yuan, much higher than the 113.7 billion yuan in the same period. In addition, the net issuance of local bonds increased significantly, reaching 765.5 billion yuan.

Last year was 419 billion yuan

The cost of issuing bonds was low, and the bank’s overnight repo rate fell to around 1.4%. Obviously, infrastructure construction will continue to improve.

Not too friendly to real estate developers, but also to make up for debts

For real estate companies, credit is controlled on the bright side, but some will still flow in.

Secondly, in August, the scale of domestic debt issued by China's housing enterprises reached 49.6 billion yuan, a high point in September 2016, accounting for about 14.7% of new bond financing in August, which is also the highest point in the past years.

As mentioned above, the cost of capital is not high. Domestic debt is a choice, at least cheaper than foreign debt issuance.

However, the overall financial supervision is still severe, and the second fiscal is still tight. M1 year-on-year and month-on-month growth rate declined in an all-round way. Enterprises and localities are somewhat tight, including the slowdown in sales of some housing companies, and the pressure on capital and debt may be a problem.

New mortgage loans began to fall back

The household loan data that most of your friends are most concerned about is actually a problem. In August, the medium and long-term loans for the new households were 441.5 billion yuan, down from 447 billion yuan in August last year. The main reason is mortgage loans.

The regulation is very strict first, and some places are still overweight, and the sales data is obviously in the fallback cycle. Naturally, mortgages are unlikely to rise.

Second, the mindset began to change. Whether it is just a need or an investment purchase, whether it is first-hand or second-hand, especially the hedging, value-added consideration, some are hesitant or not qualified.

There is not much space in the theory of large-scale water discharge.

From the international situation, the emerging countries, including most Asian countries, have weak currencies, both Turkish Lira and the Fed’s “double tightening”, as well as China’s (stable) leverage.

When Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell met with colleagues from all over the world in Jackson Hole, investors’ attention was focused on how much he planned to implement the “double tightening” policy.

The Fed officials’ signal is clearer and will raise interest rates at least five times in the next 15 months. In addition, the Fed’s sale of assets since the introduction of the quantitative easing (QE) policy in 2009 has continued to reduce the still inflated balance sheet.

Do you say that our monetary policy can completely deviate from the general trend?

The recent property price stability of the property market is large

In addition to the above-mentioned monetary environment, in the past year or so, under the strict requirements of the central government, the supply and transactions of homesteads have increased in most places.

The call for regulation and long-term mechanism has never stopped.

In summary, in September or 2018, there will be some efforts in monetary policy, but it will not be a big drain. The internal and external environment of the property market has a stable foundation in the near future.

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