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In the fourth quarter of 2018, the property market may enter the "early winter", and it will be even worse in 2019.

Time: 2018-09-18         Source: Real Estate President         Author: Pan Yongtang

This year's strongest typhoon "Mangosteen" hit southern China, and it was really scary!

At the moment, the property market is also panicked.

To some extent, the property market is not far from winter.

Come out and mix, always have to return

Good market, cover up many problems inside the housing company!

When I was in a bad day, I felt sorry for yesterday’s impulse!

Because of the impulse of the land king or the second king in 2017, these land were severely regulated and limited in 2018. Only the sun was used. What is more important is that the interest is not paid every day. What is even more uncomfortable is the large amount of money of the enterprise. Go inside.

The more terrible situation is that the 2018 is the "chill" of the property market since then, and it is getting colder!

Let me tell you a joke. In 2018, the year with 8 is not a good year, 8 although it is a homophonic sound. But 8, it seems not a good number for the economic year, the Asian financial crisis of 1998, the subprime mortgage economic crisis of 2008, and now 2018 is also a cold anomaly. Professor Wei Jie said that 2018, 2019 and 2020 will be the toughest three years of the Chinese economy. Not only the entire economic situation, but real estate is even more so.

2017 is the year of the property market differentiation

2018 is the year of adjustment of the property market

2019 or the winter of the property market

Do you still remember? As early as last year, Vanke predicted that the property market in 2018 is a small year, and Chen Jinsong said that 2018 is a small year, and now more than half of it in 2018, especially after the 731 Politburo meeting clearly curbed the rise in housing prices, the property market chill, come instantly Attack.

It is changing very quickly, especially after the 731 regulation meeting.

The 731 meeting can be described as a finale.

2017 is still in full swing. In the first half of 2018, some cities were crazy. For example, developers in the central and western cities went crazy. However, after the 731 meeting in the second half of 2018 and the strict control of the 3rd and 4th sheds, the weather vane of the property market changed rapidly and globally.

1, the developer concessions, the property market sales no longer "optimistic"!

First of all, from the analysis of the current property market signs, the "price reduction discount" of housing enterprises is a strange signal.

In the past, China's property market had a 930 policy, that is, a fierce regulation policy on the day before the National Day, and a large-scale housing enterprise with “information super-spiritual” often took the lead in price reductions in the first and second weeks before the policy. Shipped.

This year, this housing company started the national price reduction (and national marketing) in advance in early September, and its national real estate is 8.9 percent, with a minimum of 7.4 percent. This is more than the 8.8 percent discount in February this year. It is said that the effect is not bad. In just 2 weeks, the price reduction promotion sold more than 20 billion.

In addition, Country Garden also ushered in the sales end of August data to 33 billion or so, and for the three- and four-line market that he has been good at for many years, Country Garden is also suddenly serious, calm, and cautious at the moment, investing in land is a strict word .

At the same time, the property market in recent months, the area around the Beijing decline, Shanghai is also a price cut, Shanghai also appears to buy a house to send BMW and other promotional discounts, many of the top 50 housing companies, it is said that not in the promotion, is to develop a moderate promotion or even the first price cuts On the way to running the policy first.

From the analysis of the sales data inside the developer, many housing companies and the author said that the sales indicators showed a trend of colder and worsening property market. In terms of the “big data” monitoring indicators of the developer project sales, the indicators for evaluating the hot and cold of the property market are very pessimistic. For example, the electricity consumption in the thousand yuan has dropped significantly, the call attendance rate has dropped, and the transaction rate has decreased. At the same time, some housing enterprises Many people who emphasize self-sales have also begun to introduce channel companies for sales, and have given more than 2% of commissions for transactions.

2, the mentality has changed: consumer attitude wait and see, developers invest cautiously, waiting for the fourth quarter of 2018 and future lows

From the psychological analysis of buyers and sellers, the biggest change in the property market is the 731 meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee. The meeting specifically emphasizes that real estate does not allow prices to rise, and the rapid changes in the national property market on the 1234th line are “reversing” or even “rapidly turning”.

The logic is like this.

First, consumers began to wait and see and delay their home purchases. They took a reassurance on the expectations of housing prices. Since the central regulations of housing prices are not allowed to rise, then I don’t have to worry about buying a house. The wait-and-see attitude has become the main theme of the Chinese property market.

Second, from the perspective of the developer port, the original lack of money in 2018, plus the government land transfer price is still not willing to significantly relax, these are external factors, 731 not allowed to rise in the price of the "rigid" high-voltage line, all development When the ROE and IRR are measured, the expected price increase is much higher. Many optimistic developers used to predict 10%, 15% or higher. But now, all sales expectations are being eaten by a painful reassurance. However, I can't afford it.

Therefore, in terms of the developer port, the calculation of land acquisition is tight and investment is reduced.

Of course, there is no bad industry, only poor companies, even if the property market is getting colder now, such as land prices falling, excellent homes are still hoarding funds, preparing to suck in the lower lows of the property market, or buying a batch of houses to go bankrupt. Enterprise asset package.

At present, the author has heard more than 10 real estate enterprises prepare for the 4th quarter of 2018 and even the first half of 2019 to acquire the “removal of students” or “real estate changers”.

3, the hero slowly abdicated: the two-year line of the two-year inflation cycle is basically over, the third and fourth line faces an adjustment period.

The author presume that the contribution of the third and fourth lines to the annual sales of real estate will be reduced after the end of 2018 to 2019.

In 2017, the main battlefield of the property market in 2018 is still the third and fourth line.

After 2019 and 2020, the main battlefield of the property market is expected to be strong second-line, second-line, ordinary second-line and strong three-fourth.

In 2017, sales in the third- and fourth-tier cities were half of China's property market. In 2017, 60% of the 13.7 trillion sales came from the third and fourth lines, and the third and fourth lines also helped some outbreaks of dark horses. Xiangsheng, Zhongliang, and of course the giant Country Garden also benefited from the 3rd and 4th lines, but how do you view the 3rd and 4th lines? Need to dialect to see.

First, don't do the three or four lines, don't sink, you can't do it on a large scale.

Because the first- and second-line purchase limit has spillover effects to the third and fourth lines, the second, third and fourth lines are also strong and weak, and the strong three or four lines still have space. Therefore, in the past, the firm and the first-line layout of the company, Longhu, Xuhui, Vanke have quickly sank three or four lines in the past two years, this is correct.

Second, the order of cutting the leek in the third and fourth line: the first wave is just needed, and the second wave is improved.

Indeed, the first wave of cutting the leek in the past three or four lines is just a need, and now it has just been N for many years, it should also usher in a wave of improvement in demand, this is a time bonus. For example, Country Garden's 3rd and 4th lines have gone from the past suburban market to the improvement demand of small and medium-sized buildings in the city center. For example, the unique upgrade strategy of Xiangsheng's 3rd and 4th lines is to put the second-tier city quality down to the 3rd and 4th lines and let the 3rd and 4th lines The quality of living in the line city enjoys the same treatment as the first and second lines, and the effect on decontamination and premium is very obvious.

Third, we must clearly understand that the third and fourth line is a short-term strategy, not a long-term strategy.

Developers must not be in love, not large-scale, but suitable for round-the-country warfare, that is, housing enterprises around the core of the second-tier cities around the high-quality three or four lines of round tillage, opportunistic harvesters, this is feasible. Therefore, in this regard, many housing companies have proposed a 1+X layout strategy, that is, a second-line deep-plowing, and then speculatively cutting the leek in X cities around the strong third line around the second line. That is, the typical perimeter is rounded.

Therefore, the 3rd and 4th lines are still a short-term strategy, suitable for the two wave of strategic windows in 2016 and 2017. After the harvest in the first two years and even the first half of 2018, the second half of 2018 will start in 2019, and Lao Pan expects three. The four lines will usher in an "adjustment cycle." Because of the 2, 3 years of improved harvesting and shed reforms from 2016 to 2018, and financial de-leveraging, it will also enter the bottleneck and adjustment period. For example, Wang Zhongliang, the king of the 3rd and 4th lines, has gradually returned to the second line in 2018.

4, cash flow is a shell enterprise killer: slow return, financing difficulties, returning debt peak

From 2018 onwards, it will enter the debt repayment period. In 2019 and 2020, China's major housing companies will have a concentrated debt repayment period, and the scale and magnitude will far exceed 2018. According to statistics, from the second half of 2018 to 2021, the concentration of interest-bearing liabilities of housing enterprises has reached a peak of 2.9 trillion, 6.1 trillion, 5.9 trillion and 3.4 trillion, respectively. The total size of the maturity in 2022 and beyond is 0.9. Trillion. Obviously, it will enter its peak in 2019.

Why is the second half of 2018, 2019, and 2020 the peak period of debt repayment? The core is because land prices have soared in the last round of real estate climax (2015 to 2017), and housing companies have rushed to land, financing and issuing bonds. The amount of land increased by 50% year-on-year. Considering that among all financing channels, the largest banks and non-bank financial institutions have short loan terms, the average duration of development loans and M&A loans is 3 years, and the average term of entrusted loans and trust financing is less than 2 years; the largest proportion of credit bonds Corporate bonds were issued in 2015-2016, with a general term of 3-5 years, and also entered the centralized redemption period from the second half of 2018; the stock of overseas debts also intensively expired in 2018-2022.

Therefore, in the next two or three years, the mortgage debt pressure of housing enterprises will also rise in the rocket.

At the same time, the third bad thing that the disaster is not alone is that the sales side of the housing enterprise has encountered more stringent “restriction, price limit and limit signing” in the history, which directly leads to slow cash flow back to the housing enterprises and less return.

That is to say, from the second half of 2018 to 2019, the housing enterprises will be in the embarrassing situation of “repaying debts frequently, financing less, and paying less”, that is, a super “lack of money” that “can't make ends meet, cash is king”!

For example, Poly executives said in the 2018 mid-term report that first-tier cities have high cost and high pressure, and there is a certain risk. The company has consciously avoided; in the second half of the year, it strives to sell heavily, and takes some cash in hand to take the land counter-cyclically.

At the same time, we also saw Huaxia Happiness and Pazhou Real Estate actively seeking Ping An Real Estate to acquire shares, introducing financial institutions for equity financing, on the one hand to reduce the debt ratio, and on the other hand, because of financial stocks, they will get better endorsements, but also respond to the future of the property market. A strategic move.

5, the land market has been cold first: the land market is a barometer of the property market

The land market is a barometer of the property market and one of the leading indicators.

The national land flow in 2018, which is difficult to see in the past few years.

According to statistics from Centaline Property, in the first seven months of 2018, the number of land auctions in the country was as high as 796, including 13 in the first-tier cities, 154 in the second-tier cities, and 629 in the third- and fourth-tier cities. The highest number of land flow shots.

On the one hand, it reflects the smart real estate enterprises. In 2018, it no longer has a feverish mind. Instead of blindly taking the land, it is replaced by a calm, reasonable account, abandonment and giving up. Many non-premium plots and lacks in 2018. Land supported by value and difficult to settle will continue to be photographed. On the other hand, the flow of shots also reflects that developers really have no money.

In many cities, the land price has dropped to 20% or even 30%, but there are not many developers who have paid the deposit, and many of them have already been the reserve price and zero premium.

6, 2018, 2019, the property market entered the peak of layoffs

Lao Pan expects that the property market will enter the peak of layoffs in 2018 and 2019. The layoffs are no longer a case, but a common phenomenon.

In the second half of 2018, many housing companies have already passed the winter ahead, or said they are safe. For example, Sun Hongbin said that this year, safety will be put in the first place, investment standards will be raised, and care will be taken for land purchase. Similar to Country Garden and China Shipping executives, it is also proposed that the growth rate of enterprises should not be too fast... To some extent, reduce expenses, speed up payment, strengthen management, and strengthen the market. Some layoffs have become the typical choice for housing enterprises in the second half of 2018.

On the one hand, the housing enterprises cautiously take the land on the investment side and reduce the land acquisition. On the other hand, the sales terminal quickly repays the money, and the cash is the king. At the same time, in the 2018 year of the housing enterprise, the first half of the year is still “recruiting the horse”, but in the second half of the year In a row of layoffs. That is, at the end of August and the beginning of September, many housing companies such as Taihe, Huaxia Happiness, and Greenland were sent out for layoffs, while Vanke and Country Garden passed the "control".

Layoffs are necessary. Developers actually have logic behind them.

In the author's view, the first is that in cash, the developers are reducing their capital expenditures, not only taking prudent investment, but also laying off employees is a means. Second, this round of three-four-four adjustment also brings about the adjustment of the urban structure of housing enterprises, and structural layoffs are also inevitable. Third, from the colder of the property market, the management and talent quality requirements are higher. Therefore, the housing enterprises will carry out certain organizational slimming, and the structural layoffs based on these two years are also one.

For example, in the past 2016 and 2017, when the market was in good shape, the number of newcomers was very high. The rapid expansion also brought a lot of new people to “check” or the company’s lack of adaptability, and ultimately to newcomers, especially In the past one year, the employees who started to work have started to lose weight and lay off employees.

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