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"Golden September and Silver 10" is no longer, the property market enters the down channel!

Time: 2018-09-13         Source: Zimu Chat Room         Author: Sub-wood

1

"Golden September and Silver 10" has always been the saying in the property market, and its status is not worse than the "Xiaoyangchun" from March to May.

In September and October of each year, real estate sales are exceptionally good in any month of the same year.

The reason is the industry law.

Entering September is equivalent to entering the fourth quarter. Developers are under pressure from the end of the year and the annual sales target, which will increase the listing and promote sales. Because the market is in the cold winter season in November, for the real estate sales, whether you can bring home with money at the end of the year depends on these two months of activity.

The second is the weather.

Into the nine autumn cool, suitable for going out to see the house, and like the hot season in July and August, even if the hot market, like Chongqing Mountain City, this place is also a torture. Over time, it has become a habit of people buying houses.

But after careful observation over the past few years, you will find that under the control of the regulatory policy, "Golden September, Silver 10" has begun to be forced to fail.

The first is 2016. In this year, Jin Jiu Yin 10 suffered a “policy robbery”.

On September 30th, 2016, Beijing launched the “Beijing Eight Articles”, and then the 19 cities in the country followed the regulation and control. The media called it the most stringent regulation tide in history (it seems to be nothing more than scratching it now), but this robbery did not dilute the nationals. The enthusiasm for buying a house, Jin Jiuyin 10 successfully escaped in the face of the policy.

The time span is 2017. This time, Jin Jiu Yin Shi is not so lucky. The policy has not given him the opportunity to rob, and it will disappear directly.

On the 6th of the "11" holiday, the hot 30 city network signing averaged about 80% year-on-year, and was rated as the worst gold week in history by the media. The number of contracted cities in the first-tier cities is extremely bleak. As for other hot cities, the decline is generally above 40%. "Golden Nine" ended in gloom, and "Silver Ten" went smoothly.

At that time, the front page of the major media of the major media during the National Day had only eight characters, "Happy National Day, frozen property market"! The property market ushered in a brief winter.

The reason is that before the Jin Jiuyin ten, the property market encountered a policy of "rental interest rate eight consecutive kills", the cost of buying houses soared successfully to contain the demand side.

In 2017, Jin Jiu Yin 10 was the most difficult stage for Beijing real estate agents. Instead of making money to go home for the New Year, it also faced the result of being laid off. Nearly half of Beijing's million brokers did not survive the long winter.

But in fact, Dagu water is not being blocked. In the same way, in the property market, if the regulatory policies are suppressed and do not increase the demand for supply and resolving, it will inevitably be counterproductive.

In March 2018, the property market entered Xiaoyang Spring. The market demand, which has been under strong pressure for half a year, began to retaliate, and the turnover of second- and third-tier cities, especially in the central cities, soared. The property market was in full swing and house prices were smashed.

At this time, it just hit the price limit order of the property market. It can be said that humanity encountered the "falling pie in the sky". The vigorous tens of thousands of people rushed to the house and began to take turns in various strange forms. Men, women and children were able to hook up. Waiting for actors.

Then, in 2016 and 2017, what will happen to the 2018 Golden Nine Silver 10th Conference? This may be the most concerned issue in the current stage of buying a house. In fact, this year's Golden Nine Silver 10 is not only the concept of traditional meaning, it is also the most real turning point in this round of housing price cycle.

2

Let's look at the policy first.

In 2016, the property market in China was regulated more than 50 times. In 2017, nearly 110 cities were regulated 250 times.

In August of 2018 alone, 45 cities issued more than 55 real estate control policies, and the intensity of the history was refreshed. The cumulative number of adjustments during the year was 315 times.

Of course, this round of house price cycle is the longest time in China's real estate history, so it is not surprising that the regulatory policies are overweighted and the number of times is constantly refreshed.

In fact, the most important thing is the fundamental change in the form of regulation and control.

On August 17, the above talked about the main responsible persons of the five cities of Haikou, Sanya, Yantai, Yichang and Yangzhou. The interview emphasized that the comprehensive use of the economy, the law and the necessary administrative means to regulate housing demand, promote the balance between supply and demand, and effectively increase housing. And the effective use of land, serious clean-up and investigation of the problems of squatting and squatting, and vigorously rectifying the market order.

According to the sales price index of 70 new and medium-sized cities in the large and medium-sized cities announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, the prices of the above-mentioned five-city new houses rose by 2.3%, 3.7%, 2.9%, 2.9%, and 2.8% respectively in July, ranking the top 70 cities.

Local regulators have not slackened. On August 16th, the Housing and Construction Department of Hubei Province and the relevant departments interviewed 10 cities including Wuhan, Huangshi and Shiyan, and asked the municipal governments to take the responsibility of maintaining the land price, stabilizing prices and stabilizing expectations, and formulating the real estate market regulation plan. .

The "accountability interview" is the ultimate weapon for the regulation and control policy. Compared with the regulation and control in 2016, one is a big move, and the other is only a martial arts.

On this basis, the new martial arts study, which is studied above, that is, “data warning + interviewing volatility cities + excessive rise in accountability” will become the mainstream of regulation.

This combination of punches, even if you want to privately engage in small moves and want to play the game policy will not help.

Therefore, on August 24th, Hohhot issued a document in the third-tier city, “Definitely Determined”, and completely stopped the real estate inventory control measures, becoming the first city to announce farewell to inventory.

But is the stock of Hohhot going to finish? No, you can find out in the local area that the South Second Ring Road is a house under construction.

If the inventory is not finished, the house price will be broken by 10,000. It is strange to the 30,000 and 4,000 per capita wages and the sluggish industrial economy.

Of course, for this city, which is highly dependent on land finance, to announce the end of the shed reform currency in advance, it will also indicate that the house price will peak and the market will officially enter the downtrend channel.

Then the tone of the regulation determined in August has changed from the "local-led" in the past to "the local responsibility, and the above guidance." This kind of effort is undoubtedly a blow to the expectations of buyers. From August, the sales of real estate in the country can be see.

According to the shell data, only Chengdu's transactions in the 13 key cities in August increased slightly, and the volume of the remaining 12 cities fell in different degrees. Among them, the decline in the number of transactions in the 7 cities increased. (Key 13 cities: Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Nanjing, Wuhan, Qingdao, Jinan, Dalian, Changsha, Xi'an)

The rebound in Chengdu's turnover was a minor repair based on the sharp decline in transactions caused by the regulation in mid-May. The growth rate this month was significantly narrower than the previous month, and the transaction volume in recent March was low since 2017.

Among the cities that fell in the downturn, Shenzhen’s transactions, which were affected by the regulation at the end of July, ranked first in the cities with a decline of 41.1%. The absolute level is the lowest since 2017 (except the Spring Festival month). In late August, there were transactions in Shenzhen. A slight rebound, it is expected that the September transaction will be slightly improved on the basis of August.

Hangzhou ranked after the decline of 33.4% in Shenzhen, and the decline in Hangzhou transactions continued to expand in April. The turnover of Dalian and Jinan decreased by 29.8% and 28.8% respectively, and the transaction volume of the two cities has dropped for five consecutive months. Beijing's trading volume fell by 20.9% from the previous month, and the transaction was slightly better than the end of 2017. The decline in Shanghai's trading volume narrowed, and the chain was basically flat. The performance in the first eight months was slightly better than the same period last year.

In the new housing market real estate sales. In August, the growth rate of real estate sales area of ​​the top five real estate companies in the country fell from 13.1% to 3.5%, and the sales growth rate of the top 10 real estate companies nationwide fell from 35.3% to 2.9%. In August, the growth rate of real estate sales in the four major first-tier cities in the country rebounded, but the growth rate of real estate sales in 12 second-tier cities fell from 0 to -7.1%, and the growth rate of real estate sales in 16 third- and fourth-tier cities fell from -3.4% to -13.8%. This means that the growth rate of national real estate sales has dropped significantly.

There is a knowledge point here. Everyone needs to understand that the first- and second-tier property market mainly depends on the second-hand housing market. The third- and fourth-line property market mainly depends on the new housing market. This is due to the different locations in the market where new and second-hand housing in different cities are located.

From this point of view, the volume of all cities in the country, whether it is year-on-year or quarter-on-quarter (in July, the traditional meaning of July is also a high-temperature off-season), have entered the decline channel, then under the influence of volume, house prices are bound to be affected by Implicated.

From the owner's expectation, the average listing price of new listings in August 13 was flat or down. The average listing price of new listings in Hangzhou and Chengdu fell by 2.1% month-on-month, the largest decline. Among them, the average price of listing in Hangzhou has dropped significantly for the first time since 2017. The average price of new listed listings in Chengdu has been falling for the second consecutive month. After the regulation and overweight, the market expectation continues to loosen.

From the perspective of price adjustment, the proportion of price increases in the 13-city price adjustment has declined overall, with Hangzhou, Changsha and Xi'an dropping significantly, down by 18, 15 and 14 percentage points respectively. In the 13 cities, the price increase in the 10 city price adjustments fell for the third consecutive month, and the owners expected to continue to loosen.

Normally speaking, if the market is a speculative market, then house prices are relatively sensitive to changes in trading volume. If the market is just in need of market, house prices are relatively slow to change in trading volume.

To put it simply, the volume of transactions represents market liquidity. If liquidity accelerates, the price of vacant homeowners (investors) will be broken. Because the basis of the investment is to ensure its liquidity, no one wants the final house to be trapped in the hand.

Therefore, in the country's entry into the expected decline in housing prices, which city's housing prices fluctuate sharply indicates which city has the strongest speculative property, and those who just need to buy a house can make long-term observations on such cities, because their bottoming may be deeper. .

3

Let's look at interest rates again.

Interest rates are one of the most critical indicators of the property market. In the first half of the year, I predicted that the authorities will continue to strictly control the entry of money into real estate in accordance with the economic environment. The mortgage interest rate will rise in the second half of the year and will injure a large number of people who just need to buy homes.

According to reports, on August 23, Sichuan adjusted the second-home down payment ratio to 50%, and the second-home down payment in some parts of Chengdu was even adjusted to 70%. Previously, according to the data of Rong 360, among the 533 banks in the country in July, 146 raised the benchmark interest rate by 10%, 173 to 15%, 115 to 20%, 28 to 25%, and 25 to 30%. The family floats 30%-40%.

In August, the average interest rate of the first home loan in the country was 5.69%, which was equivalent to the benchmark interest rate of 1.161 times. It has been rising for 20 consecutive months since January 2017, and the first home loan interest rate in August last year was 5.12%, up 11.13%.

If the latest national first-home loan average interest rate of 5.69% loan 1 million yuan, 30 years of equal principal and interest repayment, the total interest paid is about 1,087,100 yuan, more than the previous year's accumulated more than 130,000 interest, 130,000 yuan for investment The guest may not be a big deal, but for the need, it is a lot of money.

However, at the historical level, the current 5.69% mortgage interest rate still belongs to the bottom rebound value, and the starting point of the house price rise in 2015 is a level. Therefore, the probability of future interest rates will rise, but the rate of increase will be slower and slower.

So in summary, in the case of regulatory policy overweight, rising interest rates and the market expectations caused by trading volume, the 2018 gold, nine silver and silver losses continue to fail, and its tragic situation is no more than 2017.

Finally, there are several suggestions for buyers at this stage.

1. For the immediate needs of first-tier cities that are concerned about the new housing market, there is no shortage of time to enter the National Day. Because of the current sluggish real estate industry, a large number of housing companies have even experienced layoffs. Therefore, in the National Day promotion stage, developers will have a high probability of “price-for-value” selling out. The just-needed attention to the second-hand housing market can wait for the silver ten to enter the market, and the bargaining space will be even larger.

2. Hot-spot second-tier cities will become the protagonist of this round of down cycle due to the excessive rise in house prices. Whether it is a potential or a city with no potential, it will be adjusted to varying degrees, which belongs to the latter. If you want to get on the bus, you must pay attention to the changes in the price of the core area. The decline will always be transmitted from the outside to the inside. If you are not in a hurry, you can observe the gold and nine silver ten backcourts, that is, the house prices before the year. It is a good time to shoot bamboo shoots.

3. The third- and fourth-line housing prices are low due to the low liquidity of the second-hand housing market, although the performance is not too obvious. It takes a period of time to adjust the price of the market without price. After the investors completely disappoint the expectations of the house price, they will gradually lower the house price. Pay more attention to the local currency shed reform indicators. Once it is over, there will be a number of listings to reduce sales. As for why, you should be able to guess.

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