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Iron-clad bubble: 94.28% of big city prices are still rising?

Time: 2018-09-12         Source: Rice Basket Investment         Author: pick up leaves

1

Iron-clad foam, flowing real estate creeps

This article is to analyze and analyze the recent situation of real estate.

Because, in recent months, the situation has changed a lot. However, the voice of real estate in public opinion has quietly disappeared a lot. It may be that the phrase of the 7.31 meeting "resolutely curb the rise in housing prices" has made many military leaders timid.

But the bigger reason is that recent trusts of various trusts and P2P companies have run, and the real economy has undergone a difficult adjustment structure under deleveraging. In addition, the stock market has fallen, the exchange rate has fallen, and the currency collapse has become a dazzling array of things. Eating melons and people is not enough to take care of real estate.

The downturns and collapses of the roads are not reflected in the booming industry that was a year ago.

At the beginning of the year, an article about the gold-collar salary cuts and layoffs was widely spread in the financial circle. Many financial system practitioners, especially the brokerage partners, have written messages saying that this year's business is indeed not good, many institutional businesses and innovations. Product business is almost stagnant, the stock market is sluggish, and developing customers is extremely difficult. The income is seriously shrunk. Not many employees with poor performance are afraid that if they fail to complete the performance appraisal, they will go straight to the market. There is no such thing as a heroic spirit in the first half of 2015.

Today, this wave has also begun to sweep the real estate industry.

According to Sina Finance, it was revealed that Zhang Yuliang, chairman of Greenland Group, recently issued instructions to the general manager of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shanghai, and Guangshen divisions, asking these places to complete the slimming and layoffs as soon as possible, and lay off 10%-30%.

Subsequently, the news of the layoffs of Taihe Group began to be fermented in the circle of friends of real estate people. It is said that the layoffs are as high as 30%. Some positions require examinations, exams fail, and are directly cut. Undergraduate non-985/211 colleges are also directly cut.

Taihe then clarified his position: This is not a layoff, this is a replacement. We are launching the “Thousand Talents Plan” for the introduction of top talents...

Everyone said: We all know...

Even in the local companies leading Vanke, the middle-level employees were also required to complete a post-offer and then go to work, and they would leave the post if they failed to compete. It was called the Vanke "sit up and sit down" clean-up campaign.

The layoffs of real estate have made many people feel that the real estate industry is in a dangerous period. In the face of high housing prices, many people are cold-eyed and shouted: Should this fall? !

However, the house price is like a bubble in the iron, and it is unmoved.

2

94.28%! House prices are still rising!

94.28%!

What does this number mean?

The National Bureau of Statistics publishes a monthly house price index for 70 mass cities in the country, with the ring index being the level of the city compared to last month's house price.

In July 2018, only three cities in 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country fell (Shanghai, Nanjing, Quanzhou), one city sideways (Tianjin), and the remaining 66 cities all rose, with the number of rising cities accounting for 94.28%!

I have compiled a summary of all the house prices that have been released by the Statistics Bureau this month, and have come up with a data set.

The author's friend, Junjie, stared at the watch for a long time, took a smoky smoke and said: You show me, how do I feel that the number of cities that fell after February is getting less and less?

I am right, Grandpa, the number of cities that have risen after February is getting more and more!

He shook his head and got up and went to the vegetable garden to grow vegetables.

In July, the nationwide regulation of the property market intensified the record of China's real estate history. In total, more than 60 cities issued more than 70 types of real estate control policies.

The cumulative number of controls from January to July reached 260 times, up 80% from the same period in January-July 2017.

In other words, an average of 1.4 regulatory policies are introduced every day!

However, such strict regulation still does not control the rise in housing prices nationwide.

The determination to "resolutely curb housing prices" has come.

No way, here the real estate industry layoffs, the stock market exchange currency bonds fell over there, only the price of this side of the scenery alone.

Others are not balanced!

3

Why is the iron foam so hard?

Euro D calls the bubble of real estate a bubble of iron. If it is far away, then this bubble is estimated to be an iron ball.

The people in the circle have reached a consensus: housing prices cannot rise or fall in the next year. It is related to national security. Therefore, the bubble is very hard.

Meng Xiaosu, the godfather of China's real estate, said in his speech a few days ago: "There is no bubble in China's property market. In the next 20 years, the overall upward trend of the property market will not change much."

Of course, we have written too many articles on the long-term shift of the real estate center of first- and second-tier cities. It is so much that we can merge books and publish books.

The godfather's point of view, I sum up, that is to say, China's real estate market is still a young market. Compared with Europe and the United States, there is still a long and long development space, and the market demand is still very large.

The future development path, whether from the spatial development of China's urbanization, or from the peasants' entry into the city, the second-child policy and the improvement of the family, will lead to the continuous strong demand of the real estate market.

This view has been repeated over and over again, but these logics have been personally spoken from Meng Xiaosu, who was the head of the national housing reform team, and the persuasive power will certainly be stronger.

Of course, we can't just make inferences based on some logic and authoritative personnel. We have to come up with some data from existing facts to argue.

Among them, a very important data is - land prices!

The relationship between bread price and flour price believes that you know better than me. The author has calculated the land price of the four key monitoring areas in China (the Bohai Rim region, the Yangtze River Delta region, the Pearl River Delta region and the central region).

The land prices in these four regions can basically reflect a trend level of the national land price. After drawing a picture, it looks like this:

Four lines, no one line has fallen back!

In other words: the land price has never fallen!

Especially in the Pearl River Delta, the slope of the rise after 2014 has become steep! Expensive!

Why can't land prices come down?

The road is not much to say, it is the local government land finance problem.

But today we have to consider a question from another perspective:

China's investment sector is switching between infrastructure investment, real estate investment and manufacturing investment. To be precise, it is switched in the first two blocks. In 2015-2017, real estate, then the next big infrastructure. no problem.

But the problem is: The country is going to have a big infrastructure now, and local debt cannot go up. Where does the money for big infrastructure come from?

This is a big and a big problem. Only by understanding this problem can a series of analysis be followed.

In the past, we had a point of view. The government has engaged in infrastructure construction. A considerable part of the money is generated from the real estate → land finance → then infrastructure.

If you are in debt, but if you engage in the previous path model, then the pressure of the final transfer will come to the residents and the enterprise.

Because the final product of this model is high land prices and high prices.

We want to understand one thing: how can the local government debt be controlled, or through the mode of capital innovation, or through other non-leverage methods, or non-local government leverage? Capital construction?

What do you propose?

The author's friend Gao chief said to me while looking at the salary bar: Why don't you think about the layoffs in these industries?

Oh! Suddenly realized!

4

Tax reform

The reason for layoffs is not only because of the industry downturn, but also because of the tax reform!

Start with the land transfer fee.

Obviously, the government has already expected the land flow.

On August 10th, the land market in Taiyuan engaged in a soil shoot, and it was necessary to take eight plots, a total of 13 billion. As a result, all the eight plots were taken. Originally, I wanted to sell a king, and I didn’t get a penny.

According to the data of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, there were 796 land auctions in the national real estate market in the first seven months of this year. In the first-tier cities, 13 land flows were recorded, setting a new high since 2012. In the second-tier cities, 154 land flows were recorded, up 200% year-on-year; in the third- and fourth-tier cities, land flows totaled 629.

Since the land is flowing, what about the gap?

All the companies know that after the merger of the national tax, the social security payment is collected by the tax bureau.

In the face of the powerful Golden Tax III, one person has a tax number. In the past, the tax evasion of small and medium-sized enterprises has basically blocked you. The calculation of new social security expenditures makes it easy to double the expenditure of the company. By the way, foreign social security is part of the tax.

This piece of income increase, estimated by Mao, can also be nearly trillion.

The cost of labor for enterprises is extremely high!

The gap in infrastructure construction can alleviate the problem. Then, the appropriate debt will be issued, and the land will be lowered appropriately. The infrastructure will soon come back in the fourth quarter.

But companies have to streamline their people. Because labor costs are rising too fast!

Therefore, all problems are actually solved.

5

Postscript

Finally, someone asked, what about the high price?

In fact, all of this feels unsolvable.

Because this problem is clearly solved but unresolved, there is no solution.

Expanding land supply and ensuring housing supply can effectively reduce the pressure on housing prices. Simple to say, who does it?

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