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The city can't hold on, and the winter is coming early!

Time: 2018-09-12         Source: Housing         Author: Kai Feng

The turn of the property market giants began with some minor details.

First, the national land flow, followed by the second-hand housing transactions fell, followed by the new house in disguised price cuts, and finally the property market expected a comprehensive reversal.

From Beijing to Shanghai, from Xiamen to Hangzhou, the property market has already staged this process.

Guangzhou, which is currently broadcasting this series.

1, new house: the price cut has just begun

In September, the heat in the south was not yet, and the Guangzhou property market was already cool.

The author has stepped on the market in several areas in Guangzhou for two weeks and found that the property market is changing.

Just this weekend, from the southernmost city of Nansha to the east of Luogang, from the westernmost Tsuen Wan to the core city of Tianhe, from the first-line developers to the second and third line of small developers, invariably staged a "discount tide."

In the downtown area, the opening price of a property in Tsuen Wan last month was still 45,000. This month, it suddenly launched dozens of units with an average price of 38,000. The first half of Tianhe’s real estate was 50,000 yuan. This month, we launched a price unit with an average price of 46,000. Although it is all north, it is not limited to the floor.

In Nansha and Luogang, there are many real estates, special rooms, special rooms for the general manager, special rooms for the president, special staff for internal employees, special groups for group purchases, and a wide range of special names for the partners. One wave has received a wave; under various names, There are also dazzling operations such as group purchase discounts, deposit deductions, down payment installments, and installment installments.

Many people are confused. The discount is the marketing gimmick, but the beginning of price cuts?

In the current market, the two are both. The central city has more discounted gimmicks, and attracts buyers in the name of special prices, but the special units are batched in batches, indicating that the prices are really loose.

Suburban housing prices have already fallen in real terms. A property in Nansha has dropped from 22,000 to 18,000, and a property in Luogang has also dropped from 23,000 to 19,000, with actual declines exceeding 10%.

Compared with the price loosening, the down payment period is more rampant. From the lowest 5% to the longest two years of payment, the down payment installment becomes standard for all developers.

At the end of last year, the Huaneng property market, which had a bleak transaction, used the down payment installment as a selling point, and finally could not stop the regulation of the huge wheel. In Guangzhou, due to the existence of price limit, the double contract became a hidden rule. After the superimposed decoration, the down payment cost was high, and the down payment was made in stages, which became the catcher of the developer to lock in sales and withdraw funds.

It can be said that compared with the enthusiasm of the first half of the year, the situation in the second half of the year was completely reversed.

On the one hand, developers are generally facing cash flow pressure. In the next year and a half, the country’s housing enterprises have 9 trillion debts due, and the new house price reduction wave has just begun.

On the other hand, the new house is different from the second-hand house. Once the price of the new house is lowered, the old owner is generally dissatisfied. Beijing Tongzhou has staged a wave of dramas for the owner to ask for a check-out due to the price cut. So this time, the developers are relatively cautious, will not directly cut prices, but to test the market by special room, group purchase price, down payment in stages.

All this is just the beginning.

2, second-hand housing: cooler than the new house

"Now the transaction is bleak, there are fewer and fewer people watching the market, and many agents are going to sell in new markets."

An intermediary in Guangzhou Tianhe bluntly said that since July, the second-hand housing has seen the volume and volume of transactions all the way down, the owners did not take the initiative to cut prices by 10%, basically no one even saw the house.

Indeed, the data also confirms this judgment.

According to data provided by Zhongyuan Real Estate, in August this year, the number of intermediaries in Guangzhou (excluding Nansha and Conghua) was 5,947, down 8.9% from the same period in July (6529). Among them, the transaction volume of Zengcheng and Huangpu fell by 21.3% and 19.7% respectively.

The transaction fell, the market wait-and-see mood was strong, and the owners had to actively lower the price.

At the end of August, the price of the second-hand housing market in Guangzhou was down by 66%, and the main reduction was between 1-5%.

As the property market funds are completely blocked, some investors are also facing huge cash flow pressure, and many people have begun to cut prices to sell houses.

In Guangzhou, the number of second-hand houses in the chain climbed from the lowest of 8,000 last year to 21,000 today. The volume of the disk is getting bigger and bigger, and the volume of transactions is getting smaller and smaller. The depression of the second-hand housing market is even worse than that of the first-hand housing market.

Second-hand housing can not be sold, some cities have created huge arbitrage space because of the price limit of the first-hand house, and the phenomenon of first-hand extrusion is relatively prominent.

In cities such as Guangzhou, it is the expected change of the entire market. In the turning point of the real estate change, “wait and see is the top”, it has become the consensus of all people.

The deal fell, the next step is the full loosening of prices.

3, land flow shooting: first-tier cities are no exception

"Where there is gold, now there are mines everywhere, we have not dared to take the land at a high price." A person from a large developer's strategic development department said.

Since the beginning of this year, the property market has faced unprecedented pressures, and the most restrictive channels such as bank loans and trust financing have been completely blocked. Coupled with the peak of the debt repayment of housing enterprises, cash flow is more important than everything else.

In this context, developers are more cautious about taking pictures, and land auctions are more common.

From January to July this year, the number of land auctions in the country was as high as 800, and the auction rate even exceeded that of the previous round of the property market depression in 2014. (See "800 Land Flows, 19 trillion Debt Toppings, Historical Scenes Are Recurring")

Time has entered August, and land low premium transactions have become the norm, and there are many first-tier cities.

On July 5th, the fifth phase of the Fenghuang Road, Huadu District, Guangzhou, was postponed for the fifth time and was still being auctioned. Until August 14th, the plot was only sold at the reserve price.

On August 13, Guangzhou sold 5 residential plots. Among them, one plot was sold at the reserve price. The premium of the two plots did not exceed 1%, and the remaining two plots were only about 10% premium.

On August 28th, the “Fire Zone” plot in the hot spring village of Hot Spring Town, Conghua District, Guangzhou, was still being auctioned again when it was close to half price. This is the 7th auction of the plot.

It should be noted that just two years ago, there were more than 60% of the land in Guangzhou, the premium rate exceeded 100%, and the current premium rate is only 3%.

At the same time, the land king a few years ago is now shivering in the cold wind, no one opened.

In November 2016, Guanggang Land in Guangzhou's Liwan District took the landlord. The floor price was as high as 41,000 yuan, and the price was higher than 60,000 yuan.

Today, two years later, after a round of skyrocketing, the average price of new homes in the surrounding areas was generally lower than 50,000 yuan, and the average price of the recently launched special offer was even reduced to 37,000 yuan.

At the end of March 2017, Guangzhou Haizhu Guangzhi Land Lot took a super land king with an average price of 55,400 yuan, refreshing the Guangzhou floor price record, but in the past year and a half, the plot has not yet started.

Today, the price of the surrounding new disk is still basically between 50,000 and 60,000 yuan.

Looking back, in 2013, Nanzhou Road, Haizhu District, Guangzhou, photographed the landlord with a floor price of 34,600 yuan. Later, the project was revised again and again. Five years later, it has not yet started. At that time, the average price of second-hand houses around the city was only 20,000 yuan. Even after this round of skyrocketing, the average price of second-hand housing is only 40,000 yuan. Now opening, I am afraid I will barely recover the cost.

The fate of the king is always similar.

The opening is bound to lose, not open, who can spend another three or five years?

4, the property market is difficult: different buying logic

The hardship of the property market is beyond your imagination.

The official ebb tide of the comprehensive freeze-free and shed-style monetization of the previous limited purchase and restriction measures;

After that, there is an administrative high pressure to resolutely curb rising housing prices and limit the flow of money into the property market;

Foreign trade disputes and the high hanging sword of the Fed’s interest rate hike;

There is a grim reality that residents have high leverage.

The expected change in the property market is not a sudden occurrence, but the result of the continuous superposition of straw.

During the frozen period of the property market, the logic of buying a house will change. Don't rush into it anymore, and the good time you have earned is over.

Next, the tide of price cuts in the property market will continue, and the closure of the intermediary stores will soon be coming. Many small real estate developers may not be able to survive this winter.

The property market is not a year and a half, and high-leverage investors must evaluate the cash flow. Just take the cash, watch more and move, and wait for the opportunity.

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