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Be careful! In these dozens of cities, the price increase signal is obvious!

Time: 2018-09-12         Source: Financial Outlook         Author: Chao brother

The two key factors determining the rise and fall of housing prices are: land prices and inventories. Land prices determine costs, and stocks determine supply and demand. Judging from the data released by the two recent indicators, the pressure on housing prices in various places is still relatively high.

01

Look at the land price first.

Some people may refute the slump of two land prices in Nanjing on September 7, but this is only a case, and the rise in land prices is still the mainstream trend.

The latest data from the Ministry of Land Resources shows:

In the second quarter of 2018, 98 of the country's major monitored cities saw a rise in residential land prices, an increase of 2 from the previous quarter. Among them, 33 cities narrowed their gains, down 17 from the previous quarter. There were 26 cities with a residential land price growth rate exceeding 3.0%, an increase of 4 from the previous quarter; and 3 cities with a decline in land prices, a decrease of 3 from the previous quarter.

Compared with the same period of last year, 101 cities with rising land prices increased by 3 compared with the previous quarter; 53 cities with a growth rate of over 7.0%, a decrease of 3 from the previous quarter, of which 40 cities have a land price growth rate of more than 10.0%. More than 20% of 7 cities including Xi'an, Yantai, Anyang, Zhongshan, Zhuzhou, Yueyang and Beihai; 3 cities with declining land prices, 3 fewer than the previous quarter

To sum up, it is a word that most urban land prices are still rising, and the number of rising cities is increasing.

In the subregion, the trend is the same.

Image source: rice basket investment

The above picture shows the trend of land price and sub-region. It can be seen that the three most economically active regions in China, the Bohai Sea, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, or the central region, which is in full swing, have never changed the land price trend.

Still, the price of flour does not fall, how does the price of bread drop?

Therefore, you will find that despite the increasing regulation of cities in this year, housing prices in most cities are still rising silently.

The number of second-hand housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities announced by the National Bureau of Statistics showed a decreasing trend month by month.

70 large and medium-sized cities have fallen in cities

Cartography: Financial Outlook

02

Look at the inventory side.

Whether it is the data published by the official or private institutions, one thing is said: the stock is in a hurry.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the end of July 2018, the area of ​​commercial housing for sale fell to 544.28 million square meters. Compared with the year-on-year inventory of 2015, the total inventory area was 718.53 million square meters, and the area for sale decreased by 174 million square meters.

The “100 City Residence Inventory Report” recently released by the Yiju Research Institute shows:

As of the end of July this year, the total inventory of new commercial residential buildings in 100 cities monitored decreased by 0.6% from the previous month, down 8.0% year-on-year, and the ratio of new commercial residential housing to 100 cities was 9.6. This inventory size is equivalent to the level of November 2011.

Specifically, the 10 counties and cities with the shortest inventory sales cycle are Huizhou, Zhangzhou, Hangzhou, Liuzhou, Yangzhou, Dalian, Jiashan (belonging to Jiaxing), Zhengzhou, Rizhao and Xuzhou, all of which are below the stock emergency line (6 months). .

In addition, the stocks of Hohhot, the capital of Inner Mongolia, Tangshan of Hebei, Dandong of Liaoning, Zhoushan of Zhejiang, Wenzhou, and Fuyang of Hubei are all less than 12 months old.

Especially need to say is Hohhot, in June 2014, Hohhot commercial housing destocking period of 47 months, higher than the current inventory digest cycle Longfang Xianghe County, but after three years to inventory, as of 2018 7 End-of-month stocks have fallen below the 12-month warning line for 10.5 months.

Not long ago, data released by the central bank's Hubei branch showed that there were 29 in the 79 cities and counties in Hubei with an average digestive cycle of less than 6 months.

The inventory of all the cities and counties in Hunan Province in March this year was mostly below the 12-month warning line. Individual counties and cities, such as the downtown area of ​​Changsha (ie, the city's six districts), were 2.8 months, Changsha County. For 2 months, Liuyang City was 1.9 months, and Ningxiang City was 4.7 months.

This shows that after three years of destocking, the effect is obvious, and now it is nearing the end. Next, on the one hand, it is necessary to increase the method of promoting destocking, such as currency shed reform.

The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has already stated that the national shed reform will be implemented by the city. For places with sufficient inventory, we can continue to promote currency shed reform measures to assist in destocking; for cities that are in a hurry, and where house prices are rising, the new sheds are used to change houses.

On the other hand, localities should increase land supply to quickly replenish stocks.

At present, in most regions, especially the central cities, in the context of new housing price limit and land price reduction, developers' desire to acquire land is weakening, and land flow is constantly being staged. Looking at the whole country, there have been 800 cases of land flow in the first eight months of this year.

This is the crux of the problem. In most places, stocks have been in a hurry, and because the price of new homes has not fallen, and the difficulty of financing has increased, developers have not wanted to take the land, and the stocks cannot be quickly filled.

The pressure on housing prices is quite high.

03

So, will house prices rise next?

of course not. In theory, inventory and land prices are the two most critical factors in determining the rise and fall of house prices. In the case of stocks rushing and land prices continue to rise, house prices will inevitably be pushed up.

The reality is that this upward pressure has not formed a torrent of momentum, but it has been blocked by a dam.

Today's real estate market is dominated by policies. Under the regulation mode of price limit, purchase restriction and credit limit, the liquidity of the market is completely restricted, and the rise and fall of house prices is not an easy task.

Even if it rises, no one tells you, because most of the current house price data has been modified. If you want to know the real market situation, you can only know if you go to the intermediary store and go to the market.

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