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The transaction continued to shrink! The price has dropped! The property market, gold, nine silver, ten yellow

Time: 2018-09-10         Source: Qi Junjie to see finance         Author: OF C

Every year from September to October, there will be a blowout in the property market, which will determine the price increase in this year. However, since the regulation, Jin Jiuyin has repeatedly suffered from hits. The data for the first half of this year shows that the accumulated transactions of the second-hand houses in the 10 major cities monitored have been 343,000 sets, down 20% year-on-year, the decline was narrowed by 2 percentage points from January to May. The top ten cities monitored by the report are: Beijing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Nanjing, Xiamen, Suzhou, Qingdao, Wuxi, and Jinhua, covering first- and second-tier hotspot cities.

From the data of shells and my love of my family, Beijing's second-hand housing network signed 15,000 sets in August, which was flat from the previous month. From June to August, it apparently entered the downward channel of trading volume. After a significant rebound in May, the Beijing market returned again. Cooling state, it is expected that the gold nine silver ten will definitely be cool.

In terms of price, the average price of second-hand housing in Beijing was 57,000 per square meter, down 3% from July and 6.5% from the same period of last year. From the data of wheat field intermediaries, the number of customers buying houses fell by 2%, but new houses were added. The source quantity has increased by 6%. In the bargaining between buyers and sellers, the final price reduction of housing has reached 92%. It can be seen that the current purchasers have gradually occupied a certain advantage in the purchase of houses, so the future price decline should be a trend.

In fact, Beijing's house prices have fallen by about 15% from the highest point in March-April 2017, but they are also 15%-20% off from the reasonable price in 2015.

In addition to Beijing, other major core cities are also generally the same. In August, Shanghai's second-hand residential transactions were about 13,500 units, down 3.4% from the previous month. Shanghai has also gradually reduced house prices and transaction volume since the beginning of the year of 2017, but the decline has not been Beijing. So obvious, probably about 10% lower than the highest point, and Hangzhou is still very hot in the first half of this year, and it is basically cold now. In 6-7-8 three months, the volume continued to decline, and in August it has fallen to 4,800 sets. Half of June.

Contrary to the volume, the number of second-hand houses in Hangzhou has been rising. At present, the number of listings has reached 51,255 sets. In half a year, the number of listings has doubled. Therefore, there are more and more supply in Hangzhou, less and less demand, and the bargaining space for future buyers is also increasing.

As for Shenzhen, the number of second-hand residential transactions in Shenzhen was 6,874, an increase of 2.4% from the first 30 days of July. However, affected by the new policy of regulation, the average price of second-hand housing fell for the first time in nearly seven months. However, the most impressive thing about everyone is the price of new homes in Shenzhen. He continued to make the same performance. The average price in August was 54089 yuan per square meter, a sharp drop of 53 yuan from the previous month. Shenzhen played very well, and now the new house is falling every month. But they all only lost tens of dollars. But when people rose in the past few years, they have risen thousands of times.

In Xi'an property market, it seems that there has been a reversal. The owners have been selling more and more houses, and all sellers have taken the initiative to cut prices. The price reduction space is 5-10%. The more urgent the sale, the fewer people buy the house. Many intermediaries have not opened orders for more than 2 months. In the fan base of the intellectual planet Qi Junjie, someone sent a screenshot of chatting with the intermediary, claiming that the price reduction of 100,000 is not easy to sell.

Compared with the active state of Xi'an, the property market in Xi'an has now fallen by half. However, after the 624 New Deal, after the full two full five changed to full two full three, the number of listings has increased significantly, but Xi'an really has to cool down, the most fierce in the first half of this year is him.

In addition, Xiamen housing prices began to cool last month, some people said that the collapse, but the last investigation is not that, but with a price reduction of 10,000 yuan per square meter, probably about 20%, Qingdao is the same The price has dropped by about 10%. In Chengdu, he is the property market that was promoted by monetization. Nowadays, this demon wind has stopped. Since Chengdu has been in stock for less than six months, it has been requested by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development to stop monetizing resettlement. The increase will be cool immediately. And basically it is very difficult to sell. As for some third- and fourth-tier cities, these cities are not 100% because of demand, but because of the housing prices pushed up by monetization.

Now the task of going to stock is basically completed, and the monetization resettlement has also been corrected. Before grabbing the house, it is estimated that no more can be found. In the third- and fourth-tier cities, every household is a multi-family, and you can't rent it, let alone go out.

On the whole, after three years of tossing, the property market has finally recovered its complete calm. In fact, the author always said that if the shed is not a monetary resettlement, the property market should be able to control at this time last year. Living.

At least the third- and fourth-tier cities should not rise, and the core cities in the second line can at least increase by about 20%. In addition, the monetization of this thing is really bad, and it has disrupted the deployment of the entire regulation. Let the house live without being fired for an empty talk. This responsibility does not know who to bear, and the person who made this idea is really too bad.

Now that the correction is wrong, the worst thing is that the people who grabbed the house in the past two years, the liquidity is rapidly shrinking, the house is now unable to generate income through rent, because the rental return has no high time deposits, the opportunity cost is negative, then you have to To make money in the house, you must find a more stupid fool to take over. But the problem is that there are not many fools now, and there are fewer fools with money. If the house you invested in can't sell, then sorry, you are the stupid fool.

So in that case, the house used to be a good asset. The rent return can cover the loan interest 10 years ago. At that time, you should buy more houses, because the real house price is actually the down payment. After that, you can rent the loan completely, but now it is different. The house has become a negative asset and your cash flow is constantly flowing out. Money is moving away from you. So he already has the basic characteristics of debt.

Most people can't figure out the assets and liabilities, thinking that they can be sold at high prices. This is not the case. You can read this book, "Money, Seven Steps to Create Lifelong Income." To make money, you must first engage in Know what assets are, what are liabilities, and let the money flow to you constantly, instead of throwing your money out. Why is the speculation not good, the investment has failed, and why is it still very poor in the end of life? To put it bluntly, it is simply that the assets and liabilities are unclear, and it is an asset, but it is holding a pile of debts.

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