The vast majority of the possibility of making money is an opportunity given by the times, and the impact of differences in individual abilities is not obvious. Therefore, it is more important than the individual's diligent efforts to learn to identify different cycle characteristics, select a career that meets the characteristics of the cycle, and grasp the opportunities that the cycle gives you.
Recently, Wu Xiaoling, the former deputy governor of the central bank and dean of the Wudaokou Finance College of Tsinghua University, made a speech on the graduation ceremony of the 2018 graduation of Wudaokou Finance College, which was widely circulated on the Internet.
Wu Xiaoling said:There are not many days of carnival in the bubble, and the preparation for the retreat of the tide is the reality that every country and everybody must face.
Corresponding to Wu Xiaoling's reminder: In 2018, the property market is in the strictest regulation, the shed reform and monetization began to brake, the trade war officially opened, the stock market fell back to 2691 points from 3587 points, and many banks' bad debt rates all the way. Soaring, the bond market entered the peak period of default, and the private financial platform exploded in 115 days in 40 days...
This scene can not help but remind people of the "cycle king", the original prediction of Zhou Jintao, the chief economist of China Construction Investment.
"For the future, I would like to remind everyone that 2018 to 2019 is the worst year for the Kangbo cycle, the worst phase of the 60 years, so we must control the risks of 2018 and 2019."
"After 2018, I can understand the meaning of my speech."
In 2007, Zhou Jintao successfully predicted the subprime mortgage crisis and became famous.
In 2015, it successfully predicted the fluctuation of global asset prices. At that time, the bullish Chinese stock market ushered in a big plunge and entered the big bear market.
In November 2015, it was predicted that the Chinese economy would bottom out in the first quarter of 2016, and the GDP growth rate hit a low of 6.7% in the first quarter of 2016.
In the same year, it is predicted that commodity prices will rebound at an annual level. As a result, under the supply-side reform, large-scale counter-attacks of commodities have appeared for one year.
It is precisely because of these come true predictions that many labels have been posted on him, such as "Nicholas Jintao", "Cycle of the Cycle" and so on.
Some people say that he is "opening the open air, the talent of Tianzhu". Some people say that his Kangbo predicted the opportunity of a person's life. Some people say that he is an alternative to the financial circle. He never likes tobacco and alcohol, but only likes to play ancient Chinese.
However, Zhou Jintao, who was a good old man, failed to escape the fate and died of illness on December 27, 2016.
Zhou Jintao said before his death,It is necessary to prepare for the psychological expectation of significantly reducing the return on assets, and at the same time be prepared to cope with the possibility of a liquidity crisis in 2017 to 2019.
"For individuals, this year next year (2017-2018) will sell investment real estate and new three board equity, buy gold, take two years off, exercise, come back in 2019, this is the future life plan for everyone."
"In the future investment, everyone must pay attention, making money is not important, the first goal is to preserve value, and the second is liquidity.. "
Today, the last speech Zhou Jintao left to the world is just right for reviewing this year's market turmoil.
The theme of this speech is: "Life is a Kangbo."
According to Zhou Jintao's explanation, a Kangbo cycle is 60 years, a person's natural life is 60 years, and ancient China also talked about sixty.
Kang Bo is the abbreviation of the Kondratiev cycle, which was proposed by the Russian economist Kondratiev in 1926, a 50-60 year economic cycle.
Kangbo is divided into four phases, namely, recovery, prosperity, recession and depression.
Between 1975 and 1982 was the last phase of Kangbo's depression, so this time Kangbo's recovery phase began in 1982.
The US information technology bubble from 1991 to 1994 was a sign of Kangbo’s prosperity. After the US bubble burst, the economy grew for another seven or eight years.
A shock in the Kangbo recession in 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis, a second shock in the second quarter of 2015, after the second quarter, the stock market plummeted and the yuan depreciated.
From 2004 to 2015, it was a recession, so before 2008 was the golden stage of this time.
2015 is an important turning point in the global economy and asset prices. In the past six years, one indicator of investment is the central bank. If you keep releasing water, you will have money to catch.
2015 is the global mid-cycle high, and the world has entered the depression phase of Compo. At this time, everyone will find that they are not making money at the beginning.
But what if the money in your hand needs to be preserved? So everyone started buying real estate in the core areas of the first-tier cities and engaging in emerging industries.
After the third quarter of 2017, asset prices will fall across the board, with a final low in 2019, and may be much lower than you think.
This stage is a currency elimination mechanism, and the price of assets will fall.
At this time, we can no longer judge the future investment according to the past thinking. We cannot think that the central bank has released water again, so there is an opportunity, which may not be the case.
One thing to be reminded,From 2018 to 2019, it is the worst year of the Kangbo cycle, the worst of the 60 years, so we must control the risks of 2018 and 2019.
We must no longer judge our future investment with our past thinking. We cannot think that the central bank has released water again, so there is an opportunity, which may not be the case.
At the same time, we must be prepared to cope with the possibility of a liquidity crisis in the future from 2017 to 2019.
Zhou Jintao’s research perspectives, summed up in vernacular, tell us:The vast majority of the possibility of making money is the opportunity given by the times, and the difference in individual ability is not obvious.
Therefore, it is more important than the individual's diligent efforts to learn to identify different cycle characteristics, select a career that meets the characteristics of the cycle, and grasp the opportunities that the cycle gives you.
"The biggest opportunity for life after 85 is coming soon." This is an important forecast left by Zhou Jintao in 2016.
"The opportunity that a person can get in his life is theoretically only three times. If every opportunity is not caught, you will definitely have no wealth for a lifetime. If you seize one of these opportunities, you will be at least a middle class. ."
These predictions are summarized by Zhou Jintao’s own famous saying:Life is rich, Kangbo.
Everyone's wealth accumulation must not be thought to be that they have more skills, and the accumulation of wealth is entirely derived from the opportunity given by the economic cycle.
As one elder said:The destiny of a person must of course rely on self-strengthening, but also on the history of history...
For example, before the current housing market skyrocketed, the typical Chinese rich man was the coal boss. Everyone felt that the coal boss had no ability, but why could he become a coal boss?
Because Tianshi gave them the opportunity, according to Kang Bo's law, it was a bull market for commodities at that time, so he gave the coal boss a chance to make a fortune.
At the same time, in the most difficult time of the Shenzhen property market in 2008, many real estate companies were even deceiving, even zero down payment, and the buyers were "robbed" on the car. Many real estate company employees have to save money to "support" the real estate that the company can't sell.
The guide said that there was a sales director of a real estate company. At that time, he was forced to buy more than a dozen houses in the Baoan Central District of Shenzhen.
Today, they will be grateful for the "unwillingness" at the time.
Before retiring at the age of 60, people participated in economic life for about 30 years. During these 30 years, Kang Bo gave only three chances of wealth and will not be transferred by subjective will.
For people over the age of 40, the first chance in life is in 2008. If you buy stocks and houses at that time, your life is very successful.
The second chance is in 2019, the last time around 2030, you can catch it once you can become a middle class.
The easiest thing is that people born after 1985 are now in their early 30s. If they are not talented or have a good family, then for many ordinary people, the first chance of life will appear in 2019.
Prior to this, it was a period of decline in assets, as long as possible to hold assets with good liquidity, rather than holding assets with poor liquidity, such as high-rise houses are assets with poor liquidity.
House prices will be a low point in 2019, and prices will fall back in 2017 and 2018.
The above is basically the main content of Zhou Jintao's last speech. Some opinions are indeed worthy of our reference, and some have also experienced deviations.
After all, Zhou Jintao’s starting point for research is “to study how the economy will operate, not how the economy should operate”.
In China, the system determines that something can be unreasonable. It is not right to predict whether it is right or not. You may wish to wait and see.
Finally, the dish guide ends with a sentence by Zhou Jintao:
"The wealth of life is not based on wages, but on your investment in asset prices."
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