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The biggest bonus in the 2018 property market is coming! Decide the fate of generations

Time: 2018-05-14         Source: Phoenix Real Estate Complex         Author: Phoenix Comprehensive Real Estate

Source: Liu Xiaobo, Nanfang, Dimeng

The planning plan for the “Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau Bay Area” is likely to be announced in the next two weeks.

This will be the biggest dividend for China's regional economic development in 2018, and its importance will exceed the construction of Hainan's “Free Trade Zone + Freeport”. The reason is very simple. The “Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau Bay Area” is too large, and the birth is world class.

The “world class” mentioned here refers not only to the total economic volume and population size, but also to the status of finance, shipping, trade, science and technology, and higher education in the global Bay Area. Since these data have been listed before, they will not be described here.

Hainan’s “Free Trade Zone + Freeport” experiment is very strong, but Hainan’s current economy is only equivalent to Dongguan. The total amount of funds it collects is only one-eighth of the Dawan District.

For Dawan District, ordinary people only care about three issues: first, who is the leader; second, where is the opportunity to buy a house; third, what is good for my city.

1 Who is the leader?

This topic is the most likely to cause controversy. In fact, how everyone thinks it is not important, and ultimately it depends on: First, how the official is expressed; Second, how the real situation.

The “Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau Bay Area” program is the result of the Quartet negotiations: the four parties: the Central Government, the Guangdong Province, Hong Kong and the Macao Special Administrative Region. The reason for the consultation is because of the existence of "one country, two systems" and "three customs zones." Therefore, the central government acts as a coordinator and the four parties negotiate.

Under the Quartet, three provincial regions: Hong Kong, Macau and Guangdong have their own needs. Therefore, Hong Kong, Macau and Guangzhou are very important. Then it was the turn of Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Dongguan, Foshan and so on. In other words, Shenzhen Zai Niu can not exceed Hong Kong, Macau and Guangzhou; Dongguan Foshan Zai Niu can not exceed Zhuhai. Zhuhai is small in size but high in generations. It is the SAR (holding the license plate of Guangdong C) and one of the three sub-centers of Guangdong Province (the other two are Zhanjiang and Shantou).

As for the actual center, of course, it is "Shenzhen". "Shenzhen + Hong Kong", the area is only 3,000 square kilometers, less than half of Guangzhou, accounting for 5% of the area of ​​the Dawan District, but gathered 65% of the funds. Hong Kong is one of the four major financial centers in the world. The stock market in Shenzhen is also active in the top ten in terms of activity and volume. Therefore, in the financial industry alone, Shenzhen and Hong Kong is already world class. As for container throughput, Shenzhen is the world's fourth and Hong Kong's fifth, adding up to the world's number one.

The world-class enterprises in the Dawan area are basically in two cities in Shenzhen and Hong Kong. In addition, Hong Kong is China's largest economic gateway to the world, with 55% of China's foreign investment and 65% of its external investment in China. This alone is enough to make Hong Kong proud of Shanghai.

Hong Kong is also an important diplomatic gateway for China. It has more embassies and consulates than Shanghai, more than twice as many as Guangzhou.

In addition, Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Dongguan-Guangzhou also formed the golden axis of Dawan District. The situation of the north light south and the west light east heavy in Dawan District is very obvious. If you simplify the big bay area into a capital letter "A", the bottom right corner is the brightest, and the right diagonal line is the most dynamic.

The following picture shows the comparison of major economic and social indicators in 11 cities in Dawan District. Hainan Province also participated in the comparison.

Comparison of main indicators of 2017 in Dawan District

Sort

city

Total amount of funds

(Trillion)

Local finance

(100 million)

Car ownership

(10,000 cars)

Primary school student

(10,000 people)

1

Hong Kong

9.93

4641

65

35

2

Shenzhen

6.97

3332

321

97

3

Guangzhou

5.14

1533

240

100

4

Foshan

1.40

661

228

54

5

Dongguan

1.25

592

263

77

6

Macao

0.80

921

12

3

7

Zhuhai

0.69

314

63

16

8

Huizhou

0.55

389

105

56

9

Zhongshan

0.54

313

89

30

10

Jiangmen

0.43

222

67

32

11

Zhaoqing

0.23

95

49

37

 

Hainan

1.00

674

110

81

Note: Hong Kong's statistics are as of May 2017, other cities as of the end of 2017. In terms of fiscal revenue, Hong Kong and Macao are full-scale (including land sales), and mainland cities are “general budgetary income (excluding land sales, minus the turnover). The above data are converted into RMB.

2 Where is the biggest opportunity for the property market?

Guangdong, especially in the Pearl River Delta region, is the largest melting pot of urbanization in China and the largest gathering of migrants. The official population announced by Guangdong is 113 million people, but according to projections, the actual living population in Guangdong is between 1.32 and 140 million, and it is highly concentrated in 9 cities in the Greater Bay Area.

Dawan District belongs to nine cities in Guangdong. It is divided into three groups by Guangdong officials: Guangfo Temple, Shenwanhui and Zhuzhong River. Among the three small circles, the best population growth is “Shen Guan Hui”. After 10 years of stretching, it is easy to see the number of "primary school students" in nine cities. On the surface, Guangzhou primary school students took the lead in breaking through 1 million in four first-tier cities, but in fact Guangzhou's growth rate is not fast, and its base has been very large.

From 2010 to 2016, the number of “primary school students” in all cities in Guangdong increased by 47% in Shenzhen, Huizhou by 33%, Dongguan by 34%, and Guangzhou, Foshan and Zhaoqing by 17%. , 17% and -3%. The increase in Zhuhai, Zhongshan and Jiangmen is 23%, 22% and 4%.

In other words: In the 9 cities of the Pearl River Delta, the sector with the slowest population growth is “Guangzhou Buddha”. This may surprise many people.

The biggest opportunity for the Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau Bay Area is brought by Shenzhen, not Hong Kong and Guangzhou. The reason is simple: Shenzhen is currently the largest population and capital growth center in the “Dawan District”, and because of the small size of Shenzhen, resources must overflow.

For Guangzhou, the area is very large, many areas have not yet developed, and there is not much energy to spill. In Hong Kong, because of the exchange rate and other reasons, the funds actually flow to Europe and the United States, and there are very few returns to the mainland. Look at the flow of money from the Li Ka-shing family and you will understand.

At the end of 2016, Shenzhen had introduced the “Shenzhen Housing Construction Plan (2016-2020)”, which is worth reading. In this document, Shenzhen is expected to have a total housing demand of about 1.8 million units during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period (2016-2020), of which about 708,000 sets of housing purchases and about 1.092 million sets of rental housing demand.

What is the housing supply in Shenzhen during the period? Speaking scary: only 650,000 sets! Among them, “Strive for the pre-sale and sale of 300,000 sets of new commercial housing; 350,000 sets of affordable housing and talent housing”.

1.8 million minus 650,000, and where is the 1.15 million house? Of course, you can only rely on the surrounding cities.

In this regard, the Shenzhen official has been outspoken and has repeatedly stated that it is necessary to cooperate with neighboring cities to solve this problem. Recently, it was reported that Shenzhen is still negotiating with Dongguan and Huizhou, and is following the "Shenzhen (Shanwei) Cooperation Zone" to build a development zone jointly built by the two places. Such development zones generally have matching housing. In addition, Shenzhen also hopes to build some residential areas that can accommodate Shenzhen residents along the subway line connecting Dongguan Huizhou. Of course, this involves many issues such as settlement, education and taxation, and needs to be negotiated.

The 1.15 million houses, each with 4 people, are nearly 5 million people. And this is only the "13th Five-Year Period".

In fact, in the past few years, Dongguan, Huizhou, and Zhongshan have a considerable proportion of houses, which were bought by Shenzhen people. According to statistics, in 2017, 58.6% of Huizhou's houses were bought by Shenzhen people, 57.3% of Dongguan houses were bought by Shenzhen people, and 51.4% of Zhongshan houses were bought by Shenzhen people.

Due to the lack of convenient “commuting methods”, most of the purchases in the Shenzhen area are investment-oriented. If the subways and bridges connecting the above cities in Shenzhen can be opened to traffic, these houses can really play a living function.

The following table lists the subway lines that Shenzhen and Dongguan and Huizhou are preparing to connect in the future. There are 10 lines connecting Dongguan and 3 lines connecting Huizhou (note, not yet determined). As for the "deep-middle passage" between Shenzhen and Zhongshan, it is expected to open to traffic in 2024. Although the "Shenzhen Subway" has not yet been planned, this concept has been paid attention by the top two places. The current mayor of Shenzhen was previously the secretary of the municipal party committee of Zhongshan.

Think about it, when 5 million Shenzhen people really live in Dongguan, Huizhou, Zhongshan, what kind of scene will this be? A truly, highly interactive urban agglomeration was born. The business opportunities brought about by it will be enormous.

Deep Guanhui track connection diagram

3 Who is most benefiting from Dawan District?

Dawan District is a win-win solution, and 11 cities can receive dividends. But by contrast, the dividends are big and small. The dividends received by Dongguan, Huizhou, Zhongshan and Guangzhou may be even larger.

Located on the golden axis of the “Dawan District”, Dongguan is the only city in China surrounded by “three first-tier cities” (Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Guangzhou), occupying the best of both worlds. In particular, the move of Huawei's terminal business headquarters has made Dongguan a production and R&D center for local Chinese smartphones (which will bring in the entire industry chain). What is even more frightening is that in the future, there will be 10 subways connecting Shenzhen to Shenzhen, which can continuously absorb resources from Shenzhen.

At least three subways in Huizhou will connect to Shenzhen. At present, the hot spot for the development of Shenzhen is still in the west, but after 5 years at the latest, Shenzhen must advance eastward. The second airport planned by Shenzhen is also close to Huizhou. The “Shenzhen Cooperation Zone” is also blooming behind Huizhou. As can be seen from the table above, Huizhou's local fiscal revenue has exceeded Zhuhai and Zhongshan, which are closely related to the spillover of Shenzhen resources.

The completion of the Shenzhen-Shenzhen Passage will allow the Cuiheng New District in Zhongshan to directly connect to the Baoan Central District and Qianhai in Shenzhen. By then, the advantage of Zhongshan is even more obvious than that of Huizhou. If the "Shenzhen-Zhongshan" cross-sea subway is really built, then Zhongshan will be even worse. In this sense, in the future, Zhongshan may surpass Zhuhai and become the boss of the west bank of the Pearl River Estuary.

Will the spillover of Shenzhen resources damage Shenzhen's competitiveness? Of course not, on the contrary, Shenzhen’s headquarters economy will be more developed. Shenzhen should be happy to see companies moving their production lines to neighboring cities, which is better than moving to the mainland. If you move to the mainland, the headquarters may also move.

There is also a very beneficial area in the Dawan District, which is Nansha in Guangzhou. Guangzhou has vigorously developed Nansha, which has transformed Guangzhou and Shenzhen from a “visual relationship” into a “neighbor relationship”. It also means that Guangdong's economic focus will further gather in the Pearl River Estuary. In recent years, the eastward trend of Guangzhou Nanxia, ​​Shenzhen Dongguan Xijin and Zhongshan Foshan Jiangmen has appeared at the same time, and the Pearl River Estuary has become insured. Guangzhou Nansha, which has the most land in the Pearl River Estuary and is centrally located, is clearly a big winner.

As for other cities in the region, the benefits of the “Great Bay Area” are also available.

4 How to develop in the future?

2017 is the first year of Dawan District of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao. The main task is to establish concepts, clear up issues, investigate appeals, build consensus and determine direction. Although the highlights of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau's Dawan District are frequent, they still compete with the three major international bays in terms of internationalization level, urban function, industrial structure, industrial division of labor, deep integration between regions, overall advantages, and quality of human settlements. Big gap.

In 2018, the Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau Dawan District entered the construction year. At present, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Dawan District has initially revealed the world's first-class super-large city clusters and the international free trade port. In the future, it will become a giant gateway hub for the construction of the “Belt and Road”, a world-class economic platform and an international science and technology innovation center. The radiation radius of the Dawan District Headquarters will be extended to areas along the Silk Road in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa. It will be integrated into the international route along the “Belt and Road” to introduce more national development functions, joint investment projects, upstream and downstream of large projects, and industrial clusters. Business opportunities, production subcontracting, and supervision have won business opportunities, boosting China's participation in international competition, and building a high-level international cooperation platform. The region's position and function in China's economic development and opening up will be further enhanced.

As the future, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Dawan District will become a kind of economy. From competition to synergy between cities, it will face more rational distribution of productivity space and reduce redundant construction. How to rationally divide the industrial chain and form complementary advantages; how to eliminate the difference between urban and rural areas Structure, how to retain talents in the era of high housing prices; how the business environment is more favorable and comprehensive, and become the world's most attractive economic circle, becoming the world's best business community.

In the future, the construction direction and major issues of Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and Dawan District mainly include: the comprehensive reform pilot zone of the country's comprehensive modernization, the “One Belt and One Road” giant portal hub and the world-class competitive platform within the “One Country”, and the joint construction of the International Science and Technology Innovation Center and The Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Science and Technology Corridor, the advanced manufacturing industry and the modern service industry are two-wheel drive, reconstructing the spatial order of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, and promoting the cross-border cross-city supply of public goods in Dawan District, and put forward four major construction priorities:

First, strengthen the construction of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Corridor, deepen and strengthen the advantageous industries, complement the short-term strategic modern industry, and form a “9+2” collaborative innovation system for the entire industry chain.

The second is to establish a systematic and hierarchical talent introduction mechanism and a talent training and scientific research system that is compatible with the construction of Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and Dawan District. Vigorously create a soft environment for nurturing talents and introducing talents.

Third, with the four core cities of Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macao as the support, the spatial layout of land, industrial chain, productivity and other factors will be optimized, and the other cities in Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and Dawan will be jointly promoted.

The fourth is to give full play to the three free trade zones of Nansha, Qianhai and Hengqin, create a free trade port of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, and promote the “introduction” of high-end resources through the construction of free trade zones and trade ports, and promote the “going out” of independent innovation achievements.

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