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The biggest bonus for the 2018 real estate market is coming! Determine the fate of generations

Time: 2018-05-14         Source: Phoenix Web Property         Author: Phoenix Comprehensive Real Estate

Source: Liu Xiaobo, South China Net, Dimeng

Plans for the "Hong Kong, Macau, and Greater Bay Area" are likely to be announced within the next two weeks.

This will be the biggest bonus for China's regional economic development in 2018, and its importance will exceed that of Hainan's "free trade zone + free port" construction. The reason is very simple: the size of the “Hong Kong, Guangdong, and Macao Bay Area” is too large, and one is a world-class one.

The “world class” mentioned here refers not only to the total economic output and population size, but also the position of finance, shipping, trade, technology, and higher education in the global bay area. Since these data have been listed before, we will not repeat them here.

Although Hainan's "free trade zone + free port" test is very strong, but the Hainan economy's current volume is only equivalent to Dongguan, and its total pool of funds is only one-eighth of the Greater Bay Area.

For the Great Bay Area, ordinary people only care about three issues: first, who is the leader; second, where is the opportunity to buy a house; and third, what good is the city where I live.

1 Who is the leader?

This topic is the most likely to cause controversy. In fact, everybody thinks it doesn’t matter. In the end, it still depends on: First, how does the official state? Second, how is the real situation?

The “Hong Kong, Guangdong, and Macao Bay Area” program is the result of a four-party consultation. The so-called Quartet: the Central Government, the Guangdong Province, Hong Kong and the Macao Special Administrative Region. The reason for negotiating is the existence of "one country, two systems" and "three customs areas." Therefore, the central government acts as a coordinator and negotiates with the four parties.

Under the four-party consultation, three provincial regions: Hong Kong, Macao and Guangdong Province all have their own needs. Therefore, Hong Kong, Macao and Guangzhou are very important. Then it was Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Dongguan, Foshan and so on. In other words, Shenzhen and then cattle can not exceed Hong Kong, Macao and Guangzhou; Dongguan, Foshan and then cattle, can not exceed Zhuhai. Zhuhai has a small body size but a high level of seniority. It is the Special Zone (holding a license plate for Guangdong C), and is one of the three sub-centers in Guangdong Province (the other two are Zhanjiang and Shantou).

As for the actual center, it is of course "Shenzhen-Hong Kong." "Shenzhen + Hong Kong" has an area of ​​only 3,000 square kilometers, which is less than half of Guangzhou, and accounts for 5% of the area of ​​the Great Bay, but it has gathered 65% of the funds. Hong Kong is one of the four major financial centers in the world. The Shenzhen stock market’s activity and trading volume can also be among the top ten in the world. Therefore, only the financial industry, "Shenzhen-Hong Kong," is already a world-class. As for container throughput, Shenzhen is the fourth in the world and Hong Kong is the fifth in the world, adding up to the world’s top.

The world-class enterprises in the Greater Bay Area are also basically two cities in Shenzhen and Hong Kong. In addition, Hong Kong is also the economic gateway city in which China has the largest number of contacts with the world. China's foreign investment is 55%, and its external investment in China is 65%. This alone is enough to make Hong Kong proud of Shanghai.

Hong Kong is also an important diplomatic gateway for China. It has more embassies and consulates than Shanghai, which is more than twice that of Guangzhou.

In addition, Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Dongguan-Guangzhou also formed the golden axis of the Great Bay Area. The situation of the North Light Nanking and West Lightning East Heavy in the Dawan District is very obvious. If the Greater Bay Area is reduced to a capital letter "A", the lower right corner is the brightest, and the right slash is the most dynamic.

The following figure shows the comparison of major economic and social indicators in 11 cities in the Dawan District. Hainan Province also participated in the comparison.

Comparison of Main Indicators of Cities in Dawan District in 2017

Sorting

city

Total funds

(trillion)

Local finance

(billion)

Car ownership

(10,000 vehicles)

Pupils

(ten thousand people)

1

Hong Kong

9.93

4641

65

35

2

Shenzhen

6.97

3332

321

97

3

Guangzhou

5.14

1533

240

100

4

Foshan

1.40

661

228

54

5

Dongguan

1.25

592

263

77

6

Macao

0.80

921

12

3

7

Zhuhai

0.69

314

63

16

8

Huizhou

0.55

389

105

56

9

Zhongshan

0.54

313

89

30

10

Jiangmen

0.43

222

67

32

11

Zhaoqing

0.23

95

49

37

 

Hainan

1.00

674

110

81

Note: Hong Kong statistics are as of May 2017, other cities as of the end of 2017. Fiscal revenue, Hong Kong, and Macao are all calibers (including land sales), and mainland cities are all “general budgetary revenues (excluding land sales, after deducting the portion turned in.) The above figures are all converted into RMB.

2 Where are the biggest opportunities in the property market?

Guangdong, especially the Pearl River Delta region, is the largest melting pot of urbanization in China, and it is also the largest gathering of migrants in the region. The official population announced by Guangdong is 113 million people, but according to projections, the actual living population in Guangdong is between 1.32 and 140 million, and it is highly concentrated in 9 cities in the Dawan District.

Tai Wan District belongs to nine cities in Guangdong and is divided into three groups by the Guangdong authorities: Guangfo Temple, Shenwanhui, and Zhuzhongjiang. In these three small circles, the best population growth is “Deep Guan Hui”. After 10 years of growth, the number of “primary schoolchildren” in 9 cities was clearly observed. On the surface, primary school students in Guangzhou were the first to break through 1 million in four first-tier cities, but in fact, Guangzhou's growth rate is not fast, and its base number has been very large.

From 2010 to 2016, the number of “primary school children” in all cities in Guangdong has increased by 47% in Shenzhen, 33% in Huizhou, 34% in Dongguan, and 17% in Guangzhou, Foshan and Zhaoqing respectively. , 17% and -3%. The increase rates in Zhuhai, Zhongshan, and Jiangmen are: 23%, 22%, and 4%.

In other words: In the 9 cities of the Pearl River Delta, the slowest growing population is the “Guangfu Temple”. This may surprise many people.

The biggest opportunities in Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macau in the Greater Bay Area are brought by Shenzhen, not Hong Kong and Guangzhou. The reason is simple: Shenzhen is currently the largest population and capital growth center in the “Dawan District,” and due to the small size of Shenzhen, resources must be spilled.

For Guangzhou, the area is large, many areas have not yet developed, and there is not much energy to spill. In Hong Kong, due to exchange rates and other reasons, funds actually flow to Europe and the United States, and there is very little return to the mainland. If you look at the flow of funds of the Li Ka-shing family, you will understand.

At the end of 2016, Shenzhen had issued the “Shenzhen Housing Construction Plan (2016-2020)”, which is worth reading. In this document, Shenzhen expects that during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period (2016-2020), the city’s total housing demand will be about 1.8 million units, of which about 708,000 units will be purchased and about 1.092 million units will be leased.

How much housing supply in Shenzhen during the period? Speaking scary: only 650,000! Among them, "Strive to build a new commodity housing approved pre-sale and sale of 300,000 sets; affordable housing and talent supply of 350,000 sets."

1.8 million minus 650,000, where are the 1.15 million homes? Of course, you can only rely on the surrounding cities.

In this regard, Shenzhen officials have been outspoken, and have repeatedly stated that they must cooperate with neighboring cities to solve this problem. According to recent news, Shenzhen is also negotiating with Dongguan and Huizhou to follow the "Shenzhen (Shanwei) Cooperation Zone" to engage in the development of a joint development zone between the two places. In such development zones, there will generally be supporting housing. In addition, Shenzhen also hopes to build a community that can accommodate Shenzhen residents along the subway line connecting Huizhou, Dongguan. Of course, this involves many issues such as settlement, education, and taxation. It needs consultation.

The 1.15 million houses, each housing 4 people, is nearly 5 million people. And this is only the "13th Five-Year Period".

In fact, in the past few years, Dongguan, Huizhou, and Zhongshan all had quite a large proportion of houses and were bought by Shenzhen people. According to statistics, 58.6% of the houses in Huizhou were bought by Shenzhen people in 2017, 57.3% of Dongguan houses were bought by Shenzhen, and 51.4% of Zhongshan houses were bought by Shenzhen people.

Due to the lack of convenient “commuting methods”, the vast majority of purchases in temporary areas are all investment-like. If the subways and bridges connecting Shenzhen to these cities can be opened to traffic, these houses can really function as residents.

The following table lists the subway lines that Shenzhen plans to connect with Dongguan and Huizhou in the future. Among them, there are 10 lines connecting Dongguan, and 3 connecting Huizhou (note that it has not yet been determined). As for the "Shenzhong Channel" between Shenzhen and Zhongshan, it is expected to open to traffic in 2024. Although the "Shenzhong Metro" has not yet been planned, this concept has already been concerned by the top management of the two places. The current mayor of Shenzhen was previously the secretary of the Municipal Party Committee of Zhongshan.

Think about it, when 5 million Shenzhen people really live in Dongguan, Huizhou, and Zhongshan, what will happen? A truly, highly interactive city cluster was born. The business opportunities it brings will be enormous.

Shen Guan Hui track connection diagram

3 Who will benefit most from the Greater Bay Area?

The Greater Bay Area is a win-win solution, and 11 cities can earn dividends. But in contrast, dividends are big or small. Among them, the bonuses obtained in Dongguan, Huizhou, Zhongshan, and Guangzhou may be even larger.

Located on the golden axis of the “Dawan District”, Dongguan is the only city in China that is surrounded by “three first-tier cities” (Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou), and it is well-placed to have the best of both worlds. In particular, the relocation of Huawei's terminal business headquarters will allow Dongguan to become the production and R&D center for China's domestic smartphones (which will bring the entire industry chain into the market). What's even more frightening is that there are 10 subways linking Shenzhen to Shenzhen in the future, and they can continuously absorb resources from Shenzhen.

At least 3 subways in Huizhou will meet Shenzhen. At present, the hotspot of Shenzhen's development is still in the west, but Shenzhen must fully advance eastward five years later. The second airport planned by Shenzhen is also close to Huizhou. The "deep cooperation zone" also blossoms behind Huizhou. From the previous table, we can see that the local fiscal revenue of Huizhou has exceeded Zhuhai and Zhongshan, which are closely related to the spillover of Shenzhen's resources.

The completion of the Shenzhen-Central thoroughfare will allow the Tsui Heng New District in Zhongshan to directly dock in the Bao’an Central District and Qianhai in Shenzhen. By then, the advantages of Zhongshan even more obvious than Huizhou. If the "Shenzhen-Zhongshan" cross-harbour subway is really built, then Zhongshan will be even more obtrusive. In this sense, in the future, Zhongshan may surpass Zhuhai and become the oldest player on the west bank of the Pearl River Estuary.

Will the spillover of Shenzhen resources damage the competitiveness of Shenzhen? Of course not. On the contrary, Shenzhen's headquarters economy will be more developed. Shenzhen should be happy to see companies move their production lines to surrounding cities. This is better than moving to the mainland. If you move to the Mainland, the headquarters may also be relocated.

There is also a very beneficial area in the Greater Bay Area, which is Nansha in Guangzhou. Guangzhou vigorously developed Nansha, allowing Guangzhou and Shenzhen to change from "confrontational relations" to "neighborhood relations." It also means that Guangdong's economic center of gravity has further converged to the Pearl River estuary. In recent years, the eastward trend of Guangzhou's southward, Shenzhen's Dongguan West and Zhongshan Zhongshan's Jiangmen have emerged at the same time, and the Pearl River Estuary has become increasingly affordable. The Guangzhou Nansha, which has the most land and the most central location in the Pearl River Estuary, is clearly a big winner.

As for other cities in the region, the benefits of the “Great Bay Area” can also be obtained.

4 How to develop in the future?

The year 2017 is the first year of the Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao Bay Area. The main tasks are to establish concepts, clarify issues, investigate claims, gather consensus, and determine direction. Although the construction highlights of Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao Bay Area are frequent, they still have a presence in the three major international bay areas in terms of internationalization level, urban functions, industrial structure, industrial division of labor, deep integration among regions, overall advantages, and the quality of human settlements. Big gap.

In 2018, Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao Bay Area entered the construction year. At present, the Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao Bay Area have initially revealed the shape of world-class mega-clusters and international free trade ports. In the future, they will become a giant portal hub for the construction of the “One Belt and One Road” and a world-class economic platform and an international science and technology innovation center. The radiation radius of the headquarters of the Greater Bay Area will be extended to areas along the maritime silk roads in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. The international distribution along the “One Belt and One Road” will introduce more countries to develop functions, joint investment projects, and upstream and downstream large-scale projects and industrial clusters. , Production services, project subcontracting, and supervision will have business opportunities to boost China's participation in international competition and build a high-level international cooperation platform. The region's position and function in China's economic development and opening up will be further enhanced.

In the future, Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macau, the Great Bay Area, as an economy, will change from competition to cooperation among cities, and will face more rational distribution of productivity space and reduce duplication of construction; how to rationalize the division of labor in the industrial chain and create complementary advantages; how to eliminate the difference between urban and rural areas Structure, how to retain talents in the era of high housing prices; how the business environment is more conducive to full-scale opening up, becoming the most attractive economic circle in the world's capital, and becoming the world's best living environment suitable for business and living.

In the future, the construction direction and major issues of Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macau in the Dawan District will include: the comprehensive reform pilot zone where the state is fully modernized, the giant portal hub of the “One Belt and One Road” and the world-class competitive platform within the “One Country”, and the establishment of an international technology innovation center. The Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Science and Technology Corridor, advanced manufacturing and modern service industry have two-wheel drive, reconstruct the spatial order of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, and promote the cross-border supply of public goods in the Dawan District, and put forward four major construction priorities:

The first is to strengthen the construction of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen innovation corridor, deepen and strengthen the dominant industries, complement the strategic modern industry short board, and form a “9+2” collaborative innovation system for the entire industry chain.

The second is to establish a systematic and hierarchical talent introduction mechanism and a personnel training and scientific research system that is compatible with the construction of Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao Bay Area. Vigorously create a soft environment for nurturing talents and introducing talents.

Thirdly, the four core cities of Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, and Macau are used as the support to drive optimization of the spatial layout of land, industry chain, productivity, and other factors, and comprehensively promote the coordinated development of other cities in Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao.

The fourth is to give full play to the three free trade zones of Nansha, Qianhai and Hengqin and create a free trade port for Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao. Through the establishment of free trade zones and trading ports, the high-end resources will be brought “introduced” and the independent innovation results “go global”.

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