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When can limit price and shake number stop? This article tells the truth

Time: 2018-05-14         Source: Ke Tan         Author: Ke talk

In the 20 years after the reform of the 98th House, the real estate market in China has always been a test field where a large number of flowers blossomed and kept pace with the times, and the battlefield between control policies and people’s wisdom was mutual game.

From 2015 until now, this round of nationwide housing prices has skyrocketed and the speed and magnitude of the unprecedented increase. After the destocking plan and the supply-side reform task were basically completed, under the purpose of the 19th National Congress of the People's Republic of China, the country began to curb housing prices from continuing to rise. However, under the background of huge upswing inertia and real estate speculation by the general public, the original policy of restricting purchases and limiting loans has been immunized, and it is difficult to achieve regulatory goals. Therefore, the most stringent, most effective and direct price limit and shakes were born.

1

Limit price

In early 2017, cities with rapid domestic housing prices began to limit prices, in order to ensure the decline of local housing prices statistics, require new real estate pre-sale prices can not be higher than the surrounding second-hand housing prices, multi-phase development of the project, after the completion of the price It must be significantly lower than the price of the first completion, and some cities require that the opening price of a new house must be determined based on the average price a year ago. At present, in addition to the third- and fourth-tier cities with shed change and destocking requirements, this artificial price-limit mechanism has covered all first and second-tier cities in China. The results are immediate and there are many hidden dangers.

For example, Chengdu, which has just won the top spot in the new-tier cities, is the most restrictive and universal city in the country. In the Chengdu City, Tianfu New District, and some suburbs, a second-hand house price difference is usually between 5,000 and 10,000 yuan. At the beginning of March 2018, the China Merchants Central Huacheng project outside the East Second Ring Road of Chengdu was opened and sold at a price of 12,000 to 15,000 yuan, while the nearby second-hand house Zhongfeng Hongfengling was 18,000, and Vanke Golden Music House was 20,000+, upside down 5000- 8,000 yuan.

Also on November 15 last year, people in Nanjing Hexi spent the night rushing to queue up for house arrest because of a price sensation. At that time, the opening price of new houses in the southwest of the river did not exceed 35,000, and the number of new houses in Hexi did not exceed 45,000. However, the unit price of second-hand houses in the Hexi area was generally between 50,000 and 60,000, and a second-hand house was seriously upside down.

The first-tier cities in Shanghai are also full-price limit, and the price difference between upside down is between a few thousand and tens of thousands. In April 2018, Shanghai's Green Lake opened with a price of 120,000 to 190,000. However, in 2015, the highest quotation in the district reached 220,000. In other words, the profit per unit is between 10 million and 20 million.

Recently, the Chain Home Research Institute released the proportion of new home second-hand housing prices in typical cities in the first quarter of 2018. The data shows that the price of new houses in Chengdu is generally lower than the second-hand house prices in the same region as high as 88%, ranking first in the country, with the proportions in Changsha, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Foshan, Xiamen, Chongqing and Shenzhen all reaching over 50%, Guangzhou, Shenyang and Xi’an. The proportion of Dalian and Beijing exceeds 30%.

It is undeniable that the original intention of the price limit is good. The government has even squeezed the profit of the developers and even refused to let the opening price fall below the floor price, so as to let the profits for home buyers and those who just need to improve, so that the people also have the opportunity to enjoy the policy dividend. In addition, the price limit is indeed effective in a short period of time to effectively curb the rise in the price of a second-hand house. This is the most powerful means for local governments to practice housing and housing, and it is also the determination of the central government. However, from the long-term perspective, the price-limit policy is very significant in terms of damage to the real estate industry, injury to home buyers, and social ethos.

First, artificially limited prices lead to shrinking profits for developers, and developers can only disguise their interests by maximizing the cash flow rate. Previously, the incident of Country Garden's internal exposure, from the acquisition of land to the opening of three months, could reflect the significance of quick turnaround for business survival. Therefore, the price limit will cause developers to be poor and love rich, subjective screening of full-fledged customers, discriminatory loan buyers, "the first choice of the full funds, the mortgage does not block the door, the provident fund please remove the yellow car," This scenario is still very common in many places. When the price limit is applied to the end, it is the possibility of the first set of just purchasing a house, and the opportunity for the full amount of wealthy people to buy cheap.

Second, because of the price limit, developers are not profitable, but they have to find new ways. In addition to signing contracts, they bundle high-priced parking spaces and sell them at high prices. Tea, bills, and house selection fees are endless, and these are not. Reflected in the purchase contract, the full amount must be paid in advance, not loans, resulting in increased down payment for home buyers, the pressure increases. The result of the price limit is that the decline in dominant prices, invisible housing prices, just need to buy a house is not only more difficult, and the increase in down payment, the total price becomes higher.

Third, the purpose of developers is to profit. Under the limit of the city, once the land king, the plot of high prices, in the later development and construction, can only be reduced by shattering the quality of the housing, hardcover to change the paperback, simple rough change, blanks become dangerous. This kind of poor quality house does not matter to the investors. It does not matter if they do not live in their own home. As long as the price is cheap enough, after the rise, the sale will be realized and one vote will leave. However, the need for passengers is the ultimate victim. Originally, they thought that they had bought a new house that was discounted and had just opened the road to rights protection. The pie will never be lost in the sky. Even if it is a pie, it will not be just a round. The result of this kind of compulsion is the price limit, which means that the price is discounted and the quality is also discounted. Limited quality will sooner or later be unified with the price limit, which is the power of the market economy.

Fourth, the limit price incentive for investors is far greater than just needed. Any unsound system loophole is bound to be a paradise for investors. In April 2018, Shanghai Green Lake opened with a unit price of 120,000 to 190,000. Due to the price limit, this luxury residential community has a profit margin of at least 10 million to 20 million. Therefore, 55.6% of this Yaohao list is based on the company. The name breaks the purchase of the house. Poverty has limited our imagination. We just need to comfort ourselves. It is not cost-effective for companies to buy high taxes on their homes. They do not know that taxes can be deducted, and the profits of limit prices have far exceeded that point. Investors will always be far and far from what customers want, and the imperfect price limit policy is the artificial harvester that the rich have captured social wealth.

Fifth, when a second-hand property price caused by a price limit is seriously upside down and profits are clearly visible, the potential consciousness of speculation by the Chinese people will be greatly stimulated. There are conditions to buy, and no conditions to create conditions to buy. Therefore, we see that in many places, an old person and a small person all go into battle, they reach the age of 80, and they reach the age of more than 10 years old. The people are all in the lane and are lining up to buy a house. Of these, how many are the real guests just needed? The original intention of the price limit is to benefit the people. The essence is to encourage speculation. The price limit allows the speculation to wear the just-needed coat. It is reasonable and legal.

Sixth, limit price is a direct result of local housing price statistics. The year-on-year decline and the month-on-month fall are the results that we hope to see from top to bottom. However, the price limit can only limit the price of new homes. Second-hand housing prices are not subject to control, so it will lead to distorted local and national housing prices, loss of statistical significance, and loss of reference value for macroeconomic policies. On the other hand, many first- and second-tier cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, are in a situation where the new housing market is extremely hot and the second-hand housing market is frosty. On the one hand, supply exceeds demand, while on the other, supply exceeds demand, and there are two extremes in one market, which is extremely rare. The beautiful statistical report, a split second-hand market, is destined to be a new house cannot be robbed, the old house can not afford it.

In the real estate industry, our problems are always headaches, foot pain, no cause, and direct medication. Whether you are irritated by lice or food poisoning, you should eat antipyretics if you have a fever. You will be burned and you're done. If you burn it back, you don’t care about the cause of the disease. Whether the cause is found or not!

The essence of living without housing is to reflect the nature of the house. The essence of limit price is to enlarge the speculative properties of the house in an infinite manner. However, the difficulty of the real estate has been upgraded, the threshold has been improved, and it depends on the nature, relationship, and luck. Multi-gold. The implementation of the price limit will only make it farther and harder to get away from the house and live.

2

The pain of Yaohao

Due to the chaos caused by the price limit, it has seriously damaged the fairness and fairness of the real estate market. Therefore, since May 2017, Nanjing, Shanghai, Changsha, and Chengdu have successively introduced new house shake numbers. In March of this year, Wuhan, Hangzhou, and Xi'an have also joined the Yaohao camp. Up to now, a total of 7 cities have implemented new house shakes.

Among them, Wuhan, Chengdu, and Changsha are all clearly giving priority to the need to choose a home. Wuhan proposed that 60% of the houses in the year will tend to need priority housing, and Chengdu also proposes housing in accordance with the order of shed change, just-needed families and ordinary buyers. Changsha will also implement related measures to give priority to the first set of just-purchased groups.

However, the combined effect of price limit, Yaohao, and the just-needed triple factor far exceeds all expectations. After losing the developer's screening of customers, the seemingly more fair and equitable shakeup system has awakened everyone's real estate awareness, awakened all non-rigid demand, and increased the number of buyers. Without full-priority priority, no relationship priority, and no surcharges first, everyone became a just-needed and everyone returned to the same starting line. The result was real estate speculation by the whole people, and the winning bid rate was consistently low.

Taking Chengdu as an example, at the end of January 2018, Chengdu Sanhuan Power built Yuefu Mansions, and the number of shakers broke ten thousand, with a successful rate of 2%; at the beginning of March 2018, the number of shakes for China Merchants Central Huacheng Project outside the East Second Ring Road in Chengdu exceeded 4 Million, the success rate was less than 1%; at the end of March 2018, tens of thousands of people were the norm.

The system of the new house Yaohao has no problems and is a fair and equitable embodiment. However, to shake the number on the basis of price limit is to tell the whole society: real estate speculation, everyone is responsible. The Yaohao encourages opportunism. When it is profitable, it will inevitably lead to a large number of herding behaviors, aggravate social anxiety, and form a vicious circle. And in this speculative feast, the real ones who were injured were those who didn’t have the money to go!

3

The light of the system

Over the past two decades, the buzz of the housing market has taught everyone speculation and taught us all to work for nothing. In this utilitarian, impetuous society, many people have lost the patience to concentrate their research. The incident of the Sino-U.S. trade war against ZTE has shown that what we lack most is the spirit of craftsmanship, and what we must abandon is the speculative spirit. North Korea’s abandonment of nuclear experiments and reforms and opening up will allow the people of the country to put the province’s economy at the bottom of the penultimate economy. Dandong, with its fiscal decline and population loss, has raised house prices by 57% in two days. By speculation, we are not far away, relying on real estate, we can not reach the end.

At the beginning of mankind, the nature is good, if you don't have a life, you will real estate. All of them are born to adapt to this society. Do not overestimate the power of the system, and do not underestimate the greed of human nature. Only a perfect system is the only guarantee for orderly social justice.

The direction of the “housing system to live without housing, multi-subject supply, multi-channel protection, and rent-purchase housing system” put forward by the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is very good. It is only that we have owed too much debt and formed opportunism and formalism. The management thinking will always deviate from the right track in the implementation of specific operations.

In the long run, this short-term effective administrative measure will surely create more unfair and social hidden dangers. On this basis, the teetering will only disguise the strengthening of speculative awareness and human greed, and meeting the just-needed needs will become speculation and Greedy umbrella. The most important and crucial thing in real estate policy is that the market is the market and the plan is planned.

Human nature is greedy. A good system is to keep human greed in a cage instead of greed. The good news is that we are working hard in this direction!

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