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When can the limit price and the lottery stop? This article says the big truth

Time: 2018-05-14         Source: Ke Tan         Author: Ke talk

In the 20 years since the 1998 housing reform, China's real estate market has always been a test ground for blossoming and advancing with the times, and the battlefield between the control policy and the people's wisdom.

This round of nationwide housing prices soaring from 2015 to now has been unprecedented in speed and magnitude. After the destocking plan and the supply-side reform task were basically completed, the state began to curb the continued rise in house prices under the tenth goal of “the house does not live”. However, in the context of huge rising inertia and real estate speculation, the original policy of restricting purchases and restricting loans has been immunized, and it is difficult to achieve regulatory targets. Therefore, the most stringent and most direct effective price limit and lottery in history have emerged.

1

Limit price

At the beginning of 2017, the cities whose domestic house prices have risen too fast have started to limit prices. In order to ensure the decline of local house price statistics, the pre-sales record price of newly opened real estates cannot be higher than the surrounding second-hand house prices, and the projects developed in multiple phases are completed. Must be significantly lower than the price of the first completed, and some cities require that the opening price of the new house must be determined according to the average price a year ago. At present, in addition to the third- and fourth-tier cities with shed reforms and destocking requirements, this artificial price limit mechanism has covered all first- and second-tier cities in China, and the results are immediate and there are many hidden dangers.

For example, the red city of Chengdu, which has just won the top spot in the new first-tier cities, is the most severe and most common city in the country. In the main urban area of ​​Chengdu, the direct management area of ​​Tianfu New District and some suburbs, the second-hand house price difference is usually 5000-10000 yuan. At the beginning of March 2018, the China Merchants Central Huacheng project outside the East Second Ring Road of Chengdu opened hard, with a unit price of 12,000-1.5 million, while the nearby second-hand house in the middle of Hongfengling 18,000, Vanke Golden Yuefu 20,000+, upside down 5000- 8,000 yuan.

Also on November 15 last year, due to the sensation of the price limit, the Nanjing Hexi people wanted to queue up for the house. At that time, the unit price of new houses in the southwest of the river did not exceed 35,000, and the new houses in Hexi did not exceed 45,000. However, the unit price of second-hand houses in the Hexi area was generally between 50,000 and 60,000, and a second-hand house was seriously upside down.

Shanghai, a first-tier city, is also a city-wide price limit, with upside down price ranging from a few thousand to tens of thousands. In April 2018, Shanghai Cuihu Tiandi opened with a unit price of 120,000-190,000. However, in 2015, the highest price of the district has reached 220,000. In other words, the profit per suite is between 10 million and 20 million.

Recently, the Chain Research Institute released the proportion of the price of second-hand houses in new houses in typical cities in the first quarter of 2018. The data shows that the price of new houses in Chengdu is generally lower than the proportion of second-hand housing prices in the same region as high as 88%, ranking first in the country. The proportions of Changsha, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Foshan, Xiamen, Chongqing and Shenzhen are all over 50%, Guangzhou, Shenyang, Xi'an, The proportion of Dalian and Beijing is over 30%.

It is undeniable that the original intention of the price limit is good. The government has extremely reduced the profit of the developer, and even let the opening price be lower than the floor price, so that the profit is given to the buyers and the need for improvement, so that the people have the opportunity to enjoy the policy dividend. In addition, the price limit does directly and effectively curb the rise in the price of a second-hand house in a short period of time. It is the most powerful means for local governments to implement the "household and non-speculation" and is also the determination to express their views to the central government. However, in the long run, the price limit policy is very significant for the damage to the real estate industry, the damage of those who just need to buy homes, and the destruction of social atmosphere.

First, artificial price limits have led to a reduction in developer profits, and developers can only maximize their profits by accelerating capital turnover. Previously, the internal exposure of Country Garden from the land acquisition to the opening of the three months, can reflect the significance of fast turnover for the survival of enterprises. Therefore, the price limit will cause developers to be poor and love the rich, subjective screening of all customers, discriminating loan buyers, "the first choice of the full selection of housing, mortgages do not block the door, the CPF, please remove the small yellow car", This kind of situation is still very common in many places. The implementation of the limit price to the end, the limit is the possibility of the first set of home purchases, providing the opportunity for the rich and the rich.

Secondly, due to the price limit, the developers have no profit, and they have to find another way. In addition to the online contract, the high-priced parking spaces are bundled, and the high-priced decoration is sold. The tea fee, the fee, and the house price are endless, and these are not. Reflected in the purchase contract, the full payment must be paid in advance, no loans, resulting in increased down payment by buyers, increased pressure. The result of the price limit is that the decline in explicit house prices, invisible house prices, the need to buy a house is not only more difficult, but the down payment increases, the total price becomes higher.

Third, the purpose of the developer is to profit. Under the city's price limit, once the land king, the high-priced plot, in the later development and construction, can only be shoddy by reducing the quality of the house, hardcover to change the simple, simple to change the blank, the blank becomes dangerous. This kind of poor quality house, for investors, does not matter if it is not self-sufficient, as long as the price is cheap enough, after the rise, the sale will be realized and a vote will be made. The need for the guest was the ultimate victim. I originally thought that I had bought a new house with discounts. I just opened the road to rights protection after I checked in. There will never be a pie in the sky, even if it is a pie, it will not be just needed. The result of this kind of forced price limit is that the price is discounted and the quality is also discounted. Sooner or later, the price will be unified with the price limit, which is the power of the market economy.

Fourth, the incentives for investors to limit prices are far greater than just the need, and any unsound system loopholes are bound to be a paradise for investors. In April 2018, Shanghai Cuihu Tiandi opened with a unit price of 120,000-190,000. Due to the price limit, each set of luxury residential quarters has a profit margin of at least 10 million to 20 million, so 55.6% of the list of shakes is the company. The name is broken to buy a house. Poverty limits our imagination. We just have to comfort ourselves. It is not cost-effective to buy a house with a high tax. It is not known that taxes and fees can be deducted. The profit of the limit price has already far exceeded that tax. Investors are always farther and farther away than those who want them. The imperfect price limit policy is the artificial harvester that the rich take social wealth.

Fifth, when the second-hand house price caused by the price limit is seriously upside down and the profit is clearly visible, the potential awareness of the speculation of the Chinese people will be greatly stimulated. There are conditions to buy, and there are no conditions to create conditions to buy. Therefore, we have seen a lot of places, all the old and the young all went into battle, up to 80 years old, down to the age of 10, thousands of people all over the place, lined up to buy a house, and among them, how many real guests? The purpose of the price limit is to benefit the people. The essence is to encourage speculation. The price limit allows the speculation to be clothed with the coat that is just needed, and the rationalization and legalization of the court.

Sixth, the limit price is a direct result of the local house price statistics report. The year-on-year decline and the month-on-month decline are the results that we hope to see from top to bottom. However, the price limit can only limit the price of new homes, and second-hand housing prices are not controlled, so it will lead to distortion of local and national housing price data, loss of statistical significance, and loss of macro policy reference value. On the other hand, many first- and second-tier cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, the current situation is that the new housing market is extremely hot, the second-hand housing market is frosty, one side is in short supply, the other side is oversupply, one market is two extremes, rare. The beautiful statistical report, the differentiation of a second-hand market, is destined to be a new house can not be grabbed, the old house can not afford.

In the real estate industry, our problems are always headaches, pains and pains, can not find the cause, direct medication. Whether you are inflamed or poisoned by food, as long as you have a fever, you should first take the antipyretic medicine. If you burn it, you will be successful. If you burn it, you will be rewarded. No one cares where the disease is, and whether the cause is found!

The essence of living and not frying is to reflect the living nature of the house. The essence of the price limit is to infinitely magnify the speculative property of the house. However, the difficulty of real estate has been upgraded, the threshold has been raised, and it is necessary to rely on the ability, relationship, and luck. More gold. The implementation of the price limit will only make the needy people stay away from the house and not squander.

2

Shake of pain

The chaos caused by the price limit has seriously damaged the fairness and fairness of the real estate market. Therefore, starting from May 2017, Nanjing, Shanghai, Changsha, and Chengdu have successively introduced new house swaying policies. In March of this year, Wuhan, Hangzhou, and Xi'an also joined the squad camp. Up to now, there are 7 cities across the country that implement the new house shake number.

Among them, Wuhan, Chengdu, and Changsha all clearly will give priority to meeting the need to choose a house. Wuhan proposed that 60% of the listings in the year would prefer to be selected first. Chengdu also proposed to select houses in the order of arable resettlement, just-needed families and ordinary buyers. Changsha will also implement relevant measures to prioritize the first set of newly-purchased houses.

However, the effect of price limit, lottery, and just three factors is far beyond everyone's expectations. After losing the developer's screening of customers, the seemingly more fair and fair numbering system has awakened everyone's awareness of real estate speculation, awakened all non-rigid demand, and the number of buyers did not decrease. Without the full priority, no relationship priority, no surcharge priority, everyone became just needed, everyone returned to the same starting line, the result is the real estate speculation, the winning rate has repeatedly hit new lows.

Take Chengdu as an example. At the end of January 2018, Chengdu Sanhuan Power Construction was built in Yueyue House. The number of players was 10,000, and the winning rate was 2%. In early March 2018, the number of people in the China Merchants Central Huacheng Project outside Chengdu’s East Second Ring Road exceeded 4 10,000, the winning rate is less than 1%; starting at the end of March 2018, tens of thousands of people have been the norm.

There is no problem with the system of the new house, and it is a manifestation of fairness and justice. However, shaking the number on the basis of price limit is to tell the whole society: property speculation, everyone is responsible. The swaying number is opportunism. When it is profitable, it will inevitably lead to a large number of herd behaviors, exacerbate social anxiety and form a vicious circle. In this speculative feast, the real injury is the first set of those who have no room and no money!

3

Institutional light

In the past two decades, the popularity of the housing market has taught everyone to speculate and taught everyone to get something for nothing. In this utilitarian and impetuous society, many people have lost the patience of painstaking research. The Sino-US trade war has been banned. The most lacking of us is the spirit of artisans, and what we should reject is the speculative spirit. North Korea’s abandonment of nuclear experiments and reform and opening up, the people of the country can count the economic downturn in Liaoning Province, Dandong, which has a financial downturn and a population loss, has flocked house prices by 57% in two days. By speculation, we are not far away, relying on real estate speculation, we can not reach the end.

At the beginning of the people, the nature is good, and if there is no life, they will be real estate speculators. They are all born to adapt to this society. Do not overestimate the power of the system, nor underestimate the greed of human nature. Only a perfect system is the only guarantee for orderly and fair society.

The direction of the Housing Authority, which is proposed by the 19th National Congress, is not very fragile, multi-subject supply, multi-channel guarantee, and rent-and-purchase. This direction is very good, but we have owed too much in the past, forming opportunism and formalism. The management thinking will always deviate from the right track in the implementation of specific operations.

In the long run, the short-term effective administrative measures will definitely create more unfairness and social hidden dangers. On this basis, the swaying will only strengthen the speculative consciousness and human greed in disguise, and satisfying the need will become speculation. Greedy umbrella. The most important and most important aspect of the real estate policy is that the market is in the market and the plan is planned.

Humanity is greedy. A good system is to keep human greed in a cage, not to provoke people's greed. The good news is that we are working hard in this direction!

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