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What does it mean to be called the first year of the default in 2018?

Editor: 820 Source: Rookie Finance Date: 2018-05-14


Cruel joy will end with brutality, and blind ignorance is often the easiest to become cannon fodder.

This year, a lot of things happened, and it seems to be taken for granted, but there is a strange feeling that cannot be said.

Some people were crushed to death by debt, and some people were scammed to death.

However, in addition to grief, more is a feeling of step by step.

The so-called cumulative transaction amount is about 330 billion yuan, and the "Yunlianhui" network pyramid scheme scam with 900 billion yuan deposit was destroyed by Guangzhou Public Security.

What is the concept of 300 billion yuan? The sensational "e-rental" case was 58.1 billion yuan, and "Yunlianhui" is equivalent to 5 "e-rental treasures".

The violent thunder of Yun Lianhui is quite different from the previous scam.

It was not because the capital chain was broken, nor that the boss surrendered himself because he couldn’t help himself. This was a police initiative.

As early as 2016, Yun Lianhui was frequently reported to the State Administration for Industry and Commerce and the Guangdong Provincial Administration for Industry and Commerce, referring to its alleged “MLM”.

Ningxia and Hunan have also issued emergency notices to prevent Yunlianhui from “illegal fundraising risks” and notified the Ministry of Public Security and the China Banking Regulatory Commission.

These at least illustrate a point. Two years ago, the supervision knew that Yunlianhui had problems and warned of risks.

There is also Yi Ganning, who just exploded at the end of April, a 18.5 billion scam, and nearly 100,000 people have been victimized. Is it not known before the supervision?

As early as 2 years ago, the Tongxiang police warned that “Yi Ganbao” was suspected of illegally absorbing public deposits in the name of wealth management products.

At the end of last year, Qian Baowang, which was involved in the case of 50 billion yuan, failed to pay up to 30 billion yuan. The number of registered people exceeded 200 million, and the number of injuries was numerous.

According to the Red Star news of Chengdu Business Daily, Guo Ningsheng, the former deputy director of the Academic Affairs Office of Nanjing Normal University and the secretary of the Party Committee of Taizhou University, committed suicide because his son invested in a platform and owed huge debts.

The time of suicide was when the money was on the scene.

According to the statistics of the Office of the Joint Conference, from January to March 2018, there were 1037 new cases of illegal fund-raising, involving a total amount of 26.9 billion yuan.

In this way, an average of 300 million yuan a day was defrauded. On average, the police killed 10 scams.

So the question is: Why are there more and more scams of thunder? Why is the police taking the initiative to attack faster and faster?

Not only the scam, but also the real debt, but also concentrated on thunder.

On January 25th, 35-year-old entrepreneurial star Mao Wei committed suicide by driving gas at home. He was burdened with 20 million yuan of debt before his death, and even rent could not afford it.

On January 30, the 55-year-old listed CEO Zhou Jiancan committed suicide in a five-star hotel. One person carried a debt of 9.899 billion yuan and was killed by loan sharks.

On May 2nd, the "China Top 500" enterprise Dunan Group was exposed to a debt crisis of 45 billion yuan and asked the local government to help solve the problem.

According to the statistics of Wind Info, a total of 19 credit bonds have been defaulted this year. The defaulting companies include 10 companies including Zhongchengjian, Shenwu Environmental Protection, Fugui Bird, Chunhe Group and Zhongan Consumer, and 2 of them are listed companies.

The intensity of bond defaults is scary compared to previous years.

There are still many bonds that have potential breach of contract.

On the evening of May 9, the joint rating lowered the credit rating of Shanghai Huaxin, and lowered the credit ratings of “15 Huaxin Debt”, “16 Shenxin 01”, “17 Huaxin Y1” and “17 Huaxin Y2”.

The credit rating is based on risk, and once it is lowered, it means that the trustworthy redemption may become smaller.

What is even more disturbing is that local government beliefs have been broken.

At the beginning of this year, Yunnan state-owned capital was exposed to a crisis of 1.5 billion yuan and failed to repay on time.

At the end of April this year, China Power Investment Corporation just announced that its two asset management products were postponed. In less than half a month, the third product was exposed to default, and the total amount of default was 800 million yuan.

What does it mean to be called the first year of the default in 2018?

However, these thunders are just too loud to be heard, and how many thunders that no one knows are happening silently?

You don't know, I don't know, but the regulator knows that all indications are that regulation has already smelled dangerously ahead of the market.

Putting time back, you will find that a word appears more and more frequently in our sights: "Preventing risk."

Why are so many thunders concentrated this year? Because of the lack of money, the capital chain has broken. Why did everyone live in peace in the past, because there was more money and they continued to borrow new ones.

The problem that can be printed with money is not a problem. The problem is that it is impossible to print money now.

Outside, there is also a US president who likes to retreat and take advantage of everyone's lifeline. He is looking at everyone's wool.

In May of this year, Argentina’s currency depreciated sharply and capital continued to escape. In desperation, it was forced to raise interest rates three times within eight days, and the interest rate jumped from 27.25% to 40%.

The money and flowers are being taken away, and there is no way to go, and they can only ask for help from the International Monetary Fund.

This is also what we need to face, because in the past, the water was released, the currency was too strict, and domestic debt, whether it was a business, a government, or even an individual, was extremely high.

The data shows that the leverage ratio of the resident sector in China has reached 54%, much higher than the leverage ratio of less than 10% in Argentina.

At this time, Argentina is already in deep trouble with the US knife.

On the left, if you do not follow the interest rate hike, you will fall into the abyss of capital flight that narrows the balance between China and the United States and the currency depreciation. On the right, if you follow the interest rate hike, you will fall into high cost and broken capital chain. Debt default abyss.

Going to the left, one dead road, the currency crisis broke out; going to the right, the economy hard landing, the head broke blood.

However, if you want to go to the middle and want a soft landing, you must give up.

The situation is like this: everyone was forced to the edge of the cliff, someone hit the cliff with a hammer, a crack appeared, two cracks appeared, and more cracks appeared.

The carrying capacity of the cliff is getting worse and worse, and at any time, everyone slams into the abyss.

Everyone doesn't know when the person holding the hammer stops, or if they hold together and die, pray that the person holding the hammer will raise their hands, or ease the pressure on the cliff so that most people can survive.

It looks cruel but also very realistic. The question is who to give up?

I think there will be bad people here, there are people who don't know how to jump and jump, and there are people who don't understand anything and stand on the edge of the cliff.

Sometimes I will think that the recent regulatory actions have been getting faster and faster, and how much time will be left for these people.

Less than a month after the new rules for asset management came out, OTC options were stopped, and in less than a few days, Internet gold stopped.

On May 4, China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank were fined a total of 180 million yuan, almost all of which were penalized for financial and loan violations.

According to the information disclosed by the Banking Regulatory Commission, in the first quarter of 2018, a total of 646 banking and insurance institutions were punished, and a total of 1.158 billion yuan was fined and punishable, and 12 new businesses were ordered to stop accepting new business.

Time is waiting for people, and supervision is also chasing time and running.

In fact, when we read the words "preventing systemic risks", we ignored another more important word, "clear out."

Clearing out, the original meaning is that there is a shortage or surplus in the market, and it is necessary to rebalance the supply and demand by cleaning up excess supply or demand.

To talk about people is to throw away the excess and take it away.

Think about it, this word that appears frequently on the supply side reform is actually what the supervision has been doing, no matter where it is, it is "clearing out."

The same is true for people, and what kind of people are actually having a ruler.

According to the data of Ping An Securities, the increase in the disposable income of the residential sector in 2017 was close to 90% to 100%.

In other words, many people's income is just used to pay off debts. When interest rates keep rising, income will not cover new interest.

At that time, the so-called capital chain will start to break, and these people need to use their own assets and deposits to pay off debts.

Until the capital chain completely collapsed, there is no way to go.

Those with a debt ratio of 90% to 100% are on the edge of the cliff, the most easily abandoned.

If you don't want to be abandoned, please remember to 3 points.

1. Be sure to stand in an invincible position before you can survive. Try to reduce your leverage to your ability to maintain your cash flow.

In particular, the leverage of the mortgage, the property market is now limited, it is not easy to sell the house. Do not think that there is no terrible thing to have a house on hand. If the house cannot be sold, it is only a piece of wealth on paper.

Don't just see what's right in front of you. It's almost June. If the US really wants to raise interest rates four times this year, it will raise interest rates again.

2. Debt is not only for you personally, but also for investment and financial management.

For bond investments, you need to pay attention to 2 small points.

Avoid high-leverage and high-debt companies that are not doing well and have poor earnings; avoid companies that have tight cash flow and debts that are concentrated.

The same is true for bond fund investments, to see which of the bonds they hold.

If you are not familiar with the bond, the income will be higher, please don't try it easily.

3, the supervision of the action will be more and more frequent, the original speculation can be limited to death or stop at any time, please remember a sentence, financial to return to the source.

Don't be fooled by the fancy and high interest things, and now the supervision is also very afraid of accidents, so often it is often said to die first.

If you don't want extra branches, please use the common financial management methods. Those who don't listen to the financial mode, please don't try it easily.

Finally, I will give you a sentence: the cruel joy will end with brutality, and blind ignorance is often the easiest to become cannon fodder.

The most comprehensive strategy to raise the quota to 50,000, pay attention to the WeChat public account: the financial notes, reply to the "flowers" to obtain.

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