This year, a lot of things have happened. It seems natural that there is a strange feeling that cannot be explained.
Someone was crushed to death by the debt, and someone was scammed to death.
However, in addition to grief, it is more of a feeling of pressing harder and harder.
The “Cloud Alliance” MLM scam claiming a cumulative transaction amount of approximately RMB330 billion and a RMB900 billion deposit was destroyed by the Guangzhou Public Security Bureau.
What is the concept of 300 billion yuan? The previous mega-e-class "e rented treasure" case was 58.1 billion yuan. "Cloud Union benefits" is equivalent to five "e renters."
Yun Lianhui’s riots are a bit different from previous scams.
It is not because the capital chain is broken, nor is it that the boss surrenders himself because he cannot hold up. This is a police initiative to attack.
As early as 2016, Yunlianhui was frequently reported by many people to the State Administration for Industry and Commerce and the Guangdong Provincial Administration for Industry and Commerce, alleging that it was suspected of “mutual marketing”.
Ningxia and Hunan have also issued emergency notices to prevent the “risk of illegal fund raising” by Yunlian Hui, and notified the Ministry of Public Security and the China Banking Regulatory Commission about the anomalies.
These at least explain one point. Two years ago, supervision will know that Yunlian Hui has problems and also warns of risks.
In addition, Yi Qianning, who had just exploded at the end of April, suffered a fraud of 18.5 billion yuan and suffered nearly 100,000 victims. Didn't the regulators know before?
Also as early as two years ago, Tongxiang police warned that "Yi Qian Bao," in the name of financial products, was suspected of illegally absorbing public deposits.
At the end of last year, Qian Baowang, who was involved in 50 billion yuan, had failed to redeem the amount of up to 30 billion yuan, and the number of registered people exceeded 200 million, causing numerous injuries.
According to Chengdu Business Daily Red Star News, Guo Ningsheng, former deputy director of the Nanjing University of China Normal University Academic Office and Secretary of the Party Committee of Taizhou University, committed suicide because his son invested in a platform and owed huge debts.
The time of suicide was the time when Qian Bao.
According to the statistics of the Joint Meeting Office, from January to March 2018, 1037 illegal fund-raising cases were newly issued, involving a total amount of RMB 26.9 billion.
In this way, an average of 300 million yuan was defrauded a day and the police managed to kill 10 scams on an average day.
Then the question arises: Why are the scams now increasing? Why is the police taking the initiative faster and faster?
Not only is there a scam, but there are real debts and there are also concentrated explosions.
On January 25, the 35-year-old star Mao Tseng committed suicide by burning gas at home and had a debt of 20 million yuan before his death. Even the rent could not be paid.
On January 30, the 55-year-old listed CEO Zhou Jiancan committed suicide in a five-star hotel crash. A person carrying 9.899 billion yuan of debt was forced to death by a usury.
On May 2, the “China Top 500” enterprise, Dunan Group, was exposed to a debt crisis of 45 billion yuan and asked the local government to help solve the problem.
According to statistics from Wind Info, a total of 19 credit debts have been breached this year. Defaulting companies include 10 companies including Zhong Cheng Jian, Shen Wu Environmental Protection, Fugui Bird, Chun He Group and Zhong An Xiao, including 2 listed companies.
Compared with previous years, the intensity of bond default is scary.
There are many bonds that have the potential for breach of contract.
On the evening of May 9, the joint rating lowered the credit rating of Shanghai Huaxin, and lowered the credit ratings of “15 Huaxin Bonds”, “16 Shenxin 01”, “17 Huaxin Y1” and “17 Huaxin Y2”.
The credit rating is based on the risk. Once it is lowered, it means that the trustworthiness can be reduced.
Even more disturbing is that local government beliefs have been broken.
Earlier this year, Yunnan's state-owned capital was exposed to a crisis of 1.5 billion yuan, failing to repay on time.
At the end of April this year, CLP has just announced that its two asset management products have been delayed and redeemed. In less than half a month, the third product was exposed to breach of contract and the total amount of breach of contract was 800 million yuan.
What did it mean in 2018 that it was called the first year of breach of contract?
However, these thunders are just too loud to be heard. How many Rays that nobody knows are silently happening?
You don't know, I don't know, but the regulator knows that all signs show that supervision has smelled dangerously earlier than the market.
If you dial back the time, you will find that a word appears more and more frequently in our eyes: "Prevent risk from happening."
Why are so many mines ringing this year? Because of the lack of money, the funds were broken. Why in the past everyone was all right, because the money was so high that they kept renewing their money.
The problem of being able to print money is not a problem. The problem is that you cannot print money now.
Outside, there is also a United States president who particularly likes to withdraw from the crowd and who lives on the lifeblood of all people. He is eyeing him and is always ready to pick up everyone's wool.
In May of this year, Argentina’s currency devaluation was severe and capital continued to flee. In desperation, it was forced to raise interest rates three times within eight days, and the interest rate jumped from 27.25% to 40%.
The money has been taken away by people, desperate, can only seek help from the International Monetary Fund.
This is also what we need to face, because in the past there was a large amount of liquidity, the currency was exceedingly stringent, and domestic debt, whether it was companies, governments or even individuals, was extremely high.
The data shows that the leverage ratio of the resident sector in China has reached 54%, which is much higher than the leverage ratio of less than 10% of residents in Argentina.
At this time, Argentina has fallen into the trap of the US knife.
On the left, if it does not follow the tightening of interest rate hikes, it will fall into the abyss of capital flight between the narrowing of Sino-American spreads and the devaluation of the currency. On the right, if the tightening of interest rates is tightened, it will fall into a high cost and break the capital chain. Abyss of debt default.
Walking to the left, a dead end, the currency crisis broke out; to the right, the economy hard landing, breaking the blood stream.
However, if you want to go in the middle and want a soft landing, you must give up.
The present situation is like: Everyone was forced to the edge of the cliff. Someone took a hammer and hit the cliff. A crack appeared, two cracks appeared, and more cracks appeared.
The carrying capacity of the cliff is getting worse and worse. At any time, the people are falling into the abyss.
Everyone does not know when the person holding the hammer will stop, either holding and waiting to die, praying for the person holding the hammer to exalt your hand, or reducing the pressure on the cliff so that most people can survive.
It looks cruel but also realistic. The question is who to give up?
I think that there will be bad people here and there will be people who jump up and down indefinitely, and there will be people who are stuck on the edge of the cliff without knowing anything.
Sometimes I would think that the recent regulatory actions have been getting faster and faster, leaving them with time.
Within less than a month after the new capital management regulations were landed, OTC options were halted. Shortly afterwards, Internet Gold was also halted.
On May 4, China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank were fined a total of about 180 million yuan, almost all because of financial and loan penalties.
According to the information disclosed by the China Insurance Regulatory Commission, in the first quarter of 2018, a total of 646 banking and insurance institutions were punished, and the total fines of 1.158 billion yuan were confiscated and 12 enterprises were ordered to stop accepting new business.
Time does not wait for people, supervision is also chasing after time running.
In fact, when we read the words “prevent systemic risks”, we ignored another more important word, “clearing out.”
Clearing out, the original intention means that there is a shortage or surplus in the market, through the clearing of excess supply or demand, so as to achieve a balance between supply and demand.
To speak people is to throw away the extra things and give up.
Think about it. This word, which frequently appears in the supply-side reforms, is actually what supervisors are always doing. No matter where they are, they are “clearing out.”
The same is true of people, what kind of people have what kind of results, in fact, already have a ruler.
According to the data of Ping An Securities, in 2017, the residential sector debt has accounted for 90% to 100% of the growth of disposable income of the resident sector.
In other words, many people's income is just used to pay off debt. When interest rates continue to rise, income will not cover the new interest.
At that time, the so-called capital chain will begin to break. These people need to use their own assets and deposits to pay their debts.
Until the capital chain collapsed completely, it was nowhere to go.
Those with a debt ratio of 90% to 100% are on the edge of the cliff, which is the most likely to be abandoned.
If you do not want to be abandoned, please keep in mind 3 points.
1. You must be in an invincible position before you have the possibility of living. Let your leverage be as low as you can afford and keep your cash flow abundant.
In particular, leveraged housing loans, the property market is now limited, selling real estate is not easy, do not think there is nothing terrible in the hands of the house, if the house can not sell, it is only paper wealth.
Don't just see that it's just right. It's almost 6 months. If the United States really wants to raise interest rates 4 times this year, it will raise interest rates once again.
2. Debt is not only for you personally but also for investment and financing.
For bond investment, you need to pay attention to two small points.
Avoid those high-leverage and high-debt companies that have poor business and poor profits, and avoid companies that have relatively tight cash flow and have their debts concentrated again.
The same is true for bond-type fund investments, and it is necessary to see which of the bonds they hold have.
If you are unfamiliar with the bond, you should not try it easily if you have high profits.
3, the regulatory actions will be more and more frequent, the original speculative can be hit at any time will be limited to death or halted, please remember one sentence, financial return to the source.
Don't be fooled by the bells and whistles and high-interest things. Now that supervision is also very scary, it is often the case that you will die first.
If you don't want extra money, please use common financial management methods. Those who have not listened to much financial model, please do not try it easily.
Finally, to give everyone a word: brutal pleasure will eventually end with brutality, blind ignorance is often the easiest to become cannon fodder.
Raise the quota of the bud to 50,000, and pay attention to the WeChat public number: Confidence notes, and reply to “Flower”.