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House prices rise insider, buy house unspoken rules, an article is clear!
At present, there are about 10 cities in China that have real estate investment value, and they are deep in the north, but even deeper in the north, if the time is not right to buy a house, the location of the house is not very good and it will be set for many years. The era of real estate gold everywhere has passed, and now real estate investment is definitely a technical activity. We must learn more and learn more, plan and then move.
The webmaster compiles the story of Hainan Landlord Hainan's story about real estate investment. I hope that I can buy a house now, and I would like to help the fans who buy the house in the background.
Buy a branded bag, buy a brand name watch, even if you buy a car, do not make people into desperation, but the wrong investment will make people desperate, remember! Remember! Remember!
The nature and law of real estate
Real estate is an important part of the economy. It understands the nature of the economy and can better understand real estate.
The essence of the economy is to combine various elements, including manpower, capital, and resources to meet people's needs. In the process of the Chinese government’s economic development, it has always revolved around three themes.
1, promote employment
2. Control inflation
3. Safeguarding the security of the financial system
Understand the above situation, many real estate chaos has a reasonable comment.
The short-term trend of real estate is mainly determined by the ratio of down payment, interest rate and real estate policy; the long-term trend is determined by the population. A city with a net outflow of population is definitely not suitable for investment in real estate.
After selecting a city, how to choose a region and a community has become a top priority.
The economic core of a large city is generally concentrated in the CBD area. The main offices in the CBD are large corporate headquarters, financial companies, insurance companies, consulting companies, media companies, etc. These companies have good returns and relatively high employee salaries. Under normal circumstances, senior executives of CBD companies like to live near the company, while middle and high-level people generally buy places where subway stations reach about 5 stations, and ordinary employees generally buy places that are accessible within 15 subway stations. Real estate investment can be based on their own funds, in accordance with the above rules to buy a house to buy a house, generally can maintain value-added, if the community has a good school on the edge, it is better. A good high-tech zone is also a good choice on the edge.
Some basic principles for investing in real estate:
Your house is within the purchasing scope of mainstream society members. CBD employees, government workers, and staff in good hi-tech zones are representatives of mainstream society members. Most social wealth is concentrated in their hands.
The area where your house is located has entered or is about to enter the stage of second-hand housing. Differentiate a city's real estate is worth buying, there is a simple and crude way: look at second-hand housing can not be sold smoothly, if you can not successfully get rid of, or with a new house than a huge difference, then the city's real estate structure must have a lot excess.
White-collar workers like houses in the suburbs, small businessmen like old houses in the urban areas, and houses in the suburbs must choose schools. It is easy for white-collar workers to use leverage, but one thing must be taken care of. If the suburbs are just developed, the time cost and capital cost of cash out will be relatively high.
The houses in the core areas of big cities are the most secure, but not the most profitable ones. The biggest gains are the non-core urban areas with the greatest changes. For example, subways are built in places where traffic is inconvenient, far more than the impact of one more subway in the core area.
The global financial crisis in 2007 is a watershed in the property market
Before the global financial crisis in 2007, the export economy developed rapidly. The standard of living of the people rose substantially. Demand for real estate was high. As a result, the supply of houses was in short supply and the prices rose. However, the prices were always within a reasonable range because there was not much before the global financial crisis in 2007. Investment speculation. The reasons are as follows: 1. The export industry earns more money than real estate, and a lot of money is given priority to enter the manufacturing sector. 2. The employment is good. The government does not need to use water to carry out infrastructure construction to solve the employment problem.
After the global financial crisis in 2007, exports were met with obstacles, and real estate that was leaping forward was also sluggish due to changes in the expectations of homebuyers. As a result, a large number of unemployed people appeared in the society. Under the overriding situation of stability, the government began to invest in infrastructure and encourage the purchase of real estate. After all, the housing market is still in short supply. With the increase in buying gas prices began to rise, resulting in a money-making effect, because the manufacturing industry is not as good as before to make money, have entered the real estate, water infrastructure has eventually flowed to the real estate, causing a wave of rising housing market.
The reasons for the current rise in housing prices:
The first pit of the Chinese real estate market was restricted by large and medium-sized cities in 2011. As a result, the demand in big cities has shrunk. The corresponding developers have also slowed down the purchase of land in large cities and went to third- and fourth-tier cities to purchase land for construction. As a result, the housing supply in major cities 2011-2014 has shrunk, and supply in third-tier cities has increased. Unexplained funds are forced to invest in small and medium-sized cities to buy houses. Many houses have not only failed to increase prices, but have also fallen. The most tragic thing is that there is no market for prices and there is no opportunity to admit mistakes.
The saddest thing is that big cities have experienced major increases in 2013, 2015, and 2016, and house prices have again multiplied several times. Now the real estate market is digging a second pit. It is to invest in small cities that are not limited to the metropolitan area and buy houses. The majority of houses purchased in these small cities will not be able to be rented, sold, and cannot be lived. In dilemma, how many people have lost everything.
In September 2014 and March 2015, the state introduced an easing policy that relaxed the limited-loan purchases in big cities. The demand for self-occupation in the backlog of big cities suddenly broke out. As the supply did not keep up, the supply was in short supply, and prices began to rise, resulting in making money. As a result, more speculative funds for investment began to enter real estate, especially in June 2015 when the stock market began to plummet, and a large amount of funds moved from the stock market to the housing market, and the price was further pushed up. This stimulated developers to start buying large-scale land in large cities. Over time, the big city houses began to balance supply and demand until the final supply exceeds demand, and then begin the next cycle. However, there will be some differences in the first, second and third line.
Frontline: The northern part of Shenzhen is mainly stocked houses, and the adjustment is relatively small. Since the population continues to flow in, prices will continue to rise.
Second line: With the increase in supply, house prices will be properly adjusted, investment speculation funds will stop entering or exiting, leading to further adjustments, then the house will appear to have investment value, but the premise is that the city has a constant influx of people.
The third line: The third-tier cities that are not limited to purchase have been in a market environment in recent years, the price bubble has been squeezed out, and there are some investment opportunities in the downtown of the third-tier cities along the coast.
If everyone understands the reasons for the sharp rise in housing prices, the next investment will be advanced and retired and will not fall into the pit.
The impact of the land king on the supply and demand sides:
1. Second-hand house seller: The king of the earth affected expectations, stopped selling or raised prices, resulting in reduced supply while increasing prices.
2. Developers: Although the developers took the land, due to the relatively high prices, they will not be developed in the near future, and no actual supply will be generated.
3. Buyer: Buy or not to buy, continue to buy, the price gradually rises, as the price rises, the effective demand decreases, the final supply exceeds demand, the price adjustment.
In summary, the land king will accelerate the speed of catching up.
Effect of regulatory interventions
No matter what product, as long as there is a good profit, if the government does not intervene, sooner or later the supply exceeds demand. If the government interferes less, housing prices in big cities will not be so high. Let's explain to you below the purchase limit:
When house prices rose, local governments began to frantically sell land and send a large number of businesses to start buying land for housing construction. Because housing development has a time period, it cannot immediately generate market supply, housing prices continue to rise, public grievances begin to boil, and the central government begins to regulate policies. For example, restrictions on the purchase of loans, resulting in the market was frozen, which seriously changed the developer's expectations, has slowed down the pace of development of land, did not take land to hold ground, there is no substantial increase in supply, but the demand has not disappeared. Over time, the regulation was lifted, and the accumulated demand, such as volcanic eruptions, had no real increase in supply. The housing market continued to be in short supply, house prices began to rise, and investment speculative funds were involved.
As housing prices continue to rise, local governments have started to sell large quantities of land, developers have actively purchased land, and they have not had time to develop a large number of them. The central government has begun to regulate and control and it has begun again and again. If our government has a policy, consider the feelings of developers. After all, they are the main body of supply for the house and give them a complete market. Making lots of money for development is the only choice. Oversupply is only a matter of time.
Real estate unspoken rules:
The real estate market is relatively a market with a relatively high degree of marketization. The situation in each link is as follows:
Government: The government monopolizes market supply. In principle, it will control the market and sell it slowly. Actually, under the current political ecology, no one will leave the land for sale, sell it for sale, develop the economy, and engage in economic development. Achievement is the only choice; even if he will be re-elected, but the market price fluctuations in the land market, when the market is good to sell quickly, raising money to engage in political achievements is the best policy, no one will consider 10 years 20 years.
Developers: Most of the developers are private enterprises. When the market is good, they can do it quickly. When the prices are not good, they will slow down. After all, it is their own money.
Buyers: Buying or not buying or falling, when the prices are good, investment speculation has come; when the prices are not good, investment speculation is quit, just need to wait and see.
To sum up: Real estate and other industries are not very different. When the market is good, developers from all walks of life flock in and build houses, until the surplus can't be sold. For example, three or four lines are not limited to the purchase of cities, but big city real estate has a different characteristic, that is, limit purchase limited loans, limit purchase limited artificially created supply shortage, creating a lot of investment opportunities.
House investment experience:
To invest in real estate, you must be aware of some of the attributes of the property itself.
1. Area and Correspondence
90 square meters or less (small size) First set just needed
90-140 square meters (small and medium size units) First improvement of demand
140-200 square meters (medium and large units) to improve demand multiple times
200 square meters or more (large size) Enjoy the demand
Investing in real estate involves both buying and selling. It is now a good time to sell 90-140 square meters of houses and buy 140-200 square meters of houses. Because 90-140 is now the demand for the largest house, some in short supply, 140-200 square meters of supply and demand are basically balanced, can buy a cost-effective house, with the economic and social development, 140-200 square meters of demand will increase. Making investments must be somewhat forward-looking.
2. Lots, Lots, Lots
There are some differences between the lots mentioned in the real estate investment and the traditional ring-based units. The real estate investment lot is based on the convenience and time to the CBD, plus education and business as an auxiliary standard.
3. Construction of the subway
Many people think that the construction of the subway is to facilitate residents' travel. Actually, it is not true that the subway is mainly used to connect the CBD, development zones, and transportation hubs. Understand the above reason, you will know that the subway will be built first.
4, the difference between buying a house and investing in buying a house
Buying a house and investing in a house are two different ways of thinking. Nowadays, many people are tangled up and it is a mixture of these two situations.
1. Buying a home for oneself is concerned about whether the house price has gone up after a period of time and does not care about the cost. Under the circumstances that the state keeps discharging water, the general trend of house prices in the first and second tier cities is always upward.
Conclusion: Since I can live in first and second tier cities at any time, if I can use the skills I bought to buy a house to buy at a better point, it will be perfect.
2. Investment in buying a house: Investment in buying a house is concerned with the benefits, and costs are the most important, especially the holding costs. The golden period of investing in real estate has passed, and the good old days of buying and selling money are gone forever. The point in time when investment property is bought or sold is very important, and it determines whether there is profit.
The house is also up 20% in 3 years. It may be very happy to live in your own home. The high ones are very uncomfortable. The investment may be embarrassing. The price of the house can be divided into various components so that it can be assessed whether the price is depressing and whether there is any prospect in the future.
Rates = Lot (30-40%) + Community and House Quality (20-30%) + Community Neighborhood (10%-15%) + Educational Resources (5-20%) + Secondary Business Resources (About 10%) + Business Resources (10%)
Lot: The convenience and time to reach the mainstream CBD.
Educational resources: Educational resources have a large proportion of the price structure of some houses, but educational resources are often adjusted and have certain risks.
The above composition makes it clear that the prospect of the house is very clear. For example, in the urban areas, the composition above is very mature, the price of the house already contains the above components, the house's rise and fall with the general trend, there is no additional surprises. The suburbs and the edge of the urban area are not the same, and repairing the subway, going up, building a school, going up and building a commercial center, is going up, which is why the increase in the urban area is far greater than in the city center.
When Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen prices reached the inflection point
The house is also a commodity, and the relationship between supply and demand is always effective. Although various interventions distort supply and demand, it is only a matter of time before returning to normality.
Restricted loans limit the enthusiasm of developers, reducing the supply of one-handed goods. High transaction taxes and taxes also curb the supply of used goods. Supply exceeds supply, leading to soaring house prices. But trees cannot grow into the sky. When prices rise to a certain extent, effective demand will increase. With a sharp reduction, there will be a surplus of supply, an inflection point in house prices, investment speculative funds withdrawing, and housing prices entering a downtrend channel. What is the extent of the fall? Reasonable income-to-price ratio and rental-to-sale ratio are the support points for housing prices. Take Shanghai as an example:
The highest point of house prices: The average price near People’s Square is about 180,000 yuan, Xujiahui is about 130,000, and Xinzhuang is about 90,000.
The price support point: The average price near People’s Square is about 140,000, Xujiahui is about 100,000, and Xinzhuang is about 60,000.
Then, as income rises and rents rise, house prices will slowly rise, but it is no longer possible to invest in real estate to become rich.
The above predictions are purely personal opinions. Let's look at the story.
Real Estate and Finance
Real estate and finance like a pair of twin sisters, go hand in hand, and now it is very rare to buy a home without a loan. Learn financial knowledge, not only can buy a house less detours, but also change people's thinking.
At present, individuals can access loans in three categories: credit loans, mortgage loans, mortgage consumer loans. For example, Xiaofeng is my hometown. In 2014, she will leave Shanghai to work in Hangzhou. He has a two-room house in Yangpu, Shanghai, and he wants to sell it to Hangzhou to buy a house. Asked my opinion, I was criticized and gave him a plan: He also left the remaining 200,000 mortgages, then mortgage consumer loans 700,000, interest 1.2 times, and then took 700,000 to Hangzhou mortgage a good House of. As soon as the thinking changed, there were two houses with a little toss. When housing prices in 2015 and 2016 increased, the value of the house was now increasing by 2 million.
The above example can be seen as a story, focusing on understanding financial products.
How to buy a house to buy in the low position:
1. To the real estate agency in the selected area, if these agents frequently call you, it is definitely not a good time to buy. Slowly the intermediary will give you fewer and fewer calls, even if it does not. Have to buy quickly, the intermediary does not give you a call, the general situation is to the store's customers too much, there is no time and there is no need to ignore you.
2. Look at the trading center weekly or every two weeks, and then combine Article 1. Generally, you can buy at a relatively low position.
The characteristics of rising house prices:
The golden age of investing in real estate has passed, and there are few opportunities to simply buy a house and wait for appreciation.
Looking at the change in property prices from 2000 to the present, you will find several features:
1. Slower and slower, the real estate industry has entered a mature period.
2. Rising is not a constant rate of increase. It is usually adjusted for a few years and then a big increase in the short term. This is in line with human nature. Buying up or not buying or falling, everyone will come to buy when the price rises, and everyone will wait and see when adjusting.
3. Accurate selection of cities/regions/products, good buying and selling time can make big money.
There are two profit points for investing in real estate. One is the difference between buying and selling, and the other is renting. Investments must be built around these. There are two concepts for investing in real estate. One is to make money when you buy it, and the other is to make money later.
Now investing in real estate should pay attention to accounting cost income:
Cost = down payment capital cost + mortgage loan cost + buy and sell transaction tax
Income = rent + buy sell difference
The annual devaluation is now a little over 10% and there are quantified formulas:
Devaluation = Financial Institution Total Asset Growth Rate - GDP
Advice to everyone:
Did everyone feel that the people around them are talking about buying a house? How familiar is this scene? The stock market in June of that year also appeared. When ordinary people are discussing one thing, the tragedy may have to start. The 20/80 principle is valid. Not to say that investing in a house absolutely does not make money, but the difficulty is already high.
Many people have a wrong thinking and feel that they have bought a house. Whether it is a change or not, there is a physical object there.
Investing in real estate is a big deal. Everyone has to do a lot of homework.
1, before the next decision to find more familiar with the real estate more reliable people ask.
2. There must be cost-consciousness, down payment of funds and loan funds are all costs, transaction taxes and fees are also costs. For example, a 20% increase in three years is definitely not profitable.
3, after the rental and sales ratio will be a very important investment indicator.
4, investment can not take it for granted, more study, calm thinking.
In fact, everyone has not experienced the counter-cyclical cycle of the housing market. If you are fortunate enough to buy a house in some places in Shenzhen in 2007, the face of the 98 is falling more than the down payment, and you have to pay interest on your mortgage if you are investing. Real estate, poor rent is less than 2%, far below interest. Heaven, earth, where is my property? It's clearly a bomb.
Later, it was fortunate that the state gave strength and soon began to release water, liberating everyone. Even if the country does not release water, it will eventually be dismantled, because at that time, the supply of houses is still in short supply. Only the panic causes the demand to shrink extremely, and the demand will be released later.
There have been times when the situation has changed. Today, unlike most of the past, if most cities limit purchases with limited loans, the market will develop freely and will be surplus in 1-2 years. If the investment is not careful, buy at a high point, and then many people will experience what is worse than death.
Investment is cruel, regardless of real estate or anything else.
The chance of making money is always there, but this opportunity is more of a professional investor. Ordinary people want to make money, either studying hard to become professionals or looking for professional help. Now that the housing market has entered the late stage of this wave, it is already a chicken rib. Waiting for the next cycle is a wise choice.
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