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The price rises insider, the rules of buying houses, and an article is clear!
At present, there are about 10 Chinese cities with real estate investment value, which is the best in the north, but even if it is deep in the north, if the timing of buying a house is not right, the house is not very good, and it will be set for many years. The era of real estate everywhere in the gold has passed, and now real estate investment is definitely a technical job, we must learn more and learn more, and then move.
The webmaster compiled the story of Tianyalou's main sea man's feelings about real estate investment. I hope that I can buy some houses now, and I will help some fans who buy a house in the background.
Buying a brand-name bag, buying a brand-name watch, even if you buy a car, will not make people fall into desperation, but the wrong investment will make people go to desperate, remember! Remember! Remember!
The nature and law of real estate
Real estate is an important part of the economy, understands the nature of the economy, and can better understand real estate.
The essence of the economy is to combine various elements, including manpower, capital, and resources, to meet people's needs. In the process of developing the economy, the Chinese government has always turned around three themes.
1, promote employment
2. Control inflation
3. Secure the financial system
Understand the above situation, many real estate chaos has a reasonable annotation.
The short-term trend of real estate is mainly determined by the down payment ratio, interest rate, and real estate policy; the long-term trend is determined by the population. A city with a net outflow of people is definitely not suitable for investing in real estate.
After selecting a city, how to choose a region and a community becomes a top priority.
The economic core of a large city is generally concentrated in the CBD area. The main office of the CBD is the large enterprise headquarters, financial enterprises, insurance companies, consulting companies, media companies, etc. These enterprises have good benefits and high wages for employees. Under normal circumstances, the executives of CBD enterprises like to live near the enterprise. The middle and upper levels generally buy the place where the subway is accessible in about 5 stations. Ordinary employees generally buy places within 15 subways. Real estate investment can be based on the circumstances of their own funds, according to the above rules to choose a house to buy a house, generally can maintain value and increase, if there is a good school on the side of the community, it is even better. Good high-tech zones are also a good choice.
There are some basic principles for investing in real estate:
Your house is in the scope of purchase of members of the mainstream society. CBD employees, government workers, and high-tech district staff are representatives of mainstream members of society. Most of the social wealth is concentrated in their hands.
The area where your house is located has entered or is about to enter the second-hand housing phase. It is a simple and rude way to distinguish whether a city's real estate is worth buying. If you can't sell a second-hand house smoothly, if you can't get it off smoothly, or if the ratio is different from that of a new house, then the real estate structure of the city must be large. excess.
White-collar workers like suburban houses, small businessmen like old houses in urban areas, and houses in suburban areas must choose school support. White-collar workers are easy to use leverage, but one thing to note is that if the suburbs are just developed, the time cost and capital cost of cashing out will be higher.
The houses in the core area of the big city are the most insured, but not the most profitable. The most profitable is the non-core urban area with the biggest change. For example, the subway is repaired in places with inconvenient transportation, which is far greater than the impact of repairing a subway in the core area.
The 2007 global financial crisis is the watershed of the property market
Before the global financial crisis in 2007, the export economy developed rapidly. The living standards of the people increased greatly. The demand for real estate was very high, which led to the shortage of houses and the price rise, but the price was always within a reasonable range. Before the global financial crisis in 2007, there was not much. Investment speculation. The reasons are as follows: 1. The export industry earns more money than the real estate, and a lot of money has priority to enter the manufacturing sector. 2. The employment is good, and the government does not need to carry out infrastructure construction by releasing water to solve the employment problem.
After the global financial crisis in 2007, exports were hampered, and the triumphant real estate also entered a depression due to the expected changes in home buyers, resulting in a large number of unemployed people in the society. Under the circumstance of stability overwhelming, the government began to invest in water infrastructure and encourage real estate purchases. After all, the housing market is still in short supply. With the increase in buying gas, house prices began to rise, resulting in a profit-making effect. Because the manufacturing industry did not make good money as before, they entered real estate one after another. The water from infrastructure construction eventually flowed to real estate, causing a wave of housing prices.
Reasons for this round of rising house prices:
The first pit in China's real estate market was the purchase of large and medium-sized cities in 2011, which led to shrinking demand in big cities. The corresponding developers also slowed down the purchase of land in big cities and went to third- and fourth-tier cities to buy land. The result is that the supply of houses in the big cities 2011-2014 is shrinking, and the supply of third- and fourth-tier cities is increasing. Funds with unknown truths were forced to invest in small and medium-sized cities to buy houses. Many houses not only did not raise prices, but also fell prices. The saddest thing is that there is no market for the price, and the opportunity to admit mistakes is not given.
The saddest thing is that the big cities have risen sharply in 2013, 2015 and 2016, and the prices have doubled. Now the real estate market is digging a second pit, that is, to buy a house in an unrestricted small city near the metropolitan area. Most of the houses purchased in these small cities will not be able to be rented, can’t be sold, and can’t live. In the dilemma, how many people have lost their blood.
In September 2014, in March 2015, the state introduced an easing policy, which relaxed the restrictions on large-capacity loans in large cities. The overwhelming demand for self-occupation in large cities suddenly broke out. As supply did not keep up, the demand exceeded supply, prices began to rise, and money was generated. The effect, more investment speculative funds began to enter real estate, especially in June 2015, the stock market began to plunge, a large amount of funds from the stock market to the housing market, the price was further pushed up. This stimulated developers to start buying large-scale land in large cities. Over time, big city houses began to balance supply and demand until the final supply exceeded demand, and then began the next cycle. But there will still be some differences between the first, second and third lines.
The first line: the north is deep and the stock is mainly based on stocks. The adjustment is relatively small. Since the population continues to flow in, the house prices will continue to go up.
Second line: With the increase in supply, house prices will be properly adjusted, investment speculative funds will stop entering or exit, leading to further adjustments, when the house will have investment value, but only if the city continues to have population inflows.
The third line: the third-tier cities that are not limited to purchase have been in the market environment in recent years, the price bubble has been squeezed out, and there will be some investment opportunities in the coastal third-tier cities.
If you understand the reason for the soaring housing prices, the next investment will go back and forth and will not fall into the pit.
The influence of the land king on both the supply and demand sides:
1. Second-hand house seller: The land king influences the expectation, stops selling or raises the price, resulting in a decrease in supply and a price increase.
2. Developer: Although the developer took the land, but because the price is relatively high, it will not be developed in the near future, and the actual supply will not be generated.
3. Buyer: Buying up, not buying down, continuing to buy, the price is gradually rising, as the price goes up, the effective demand decreases, and finally the supply exceeds demand and the price adjusts.
In summary, the king will speed up the top.
Regulating the effects of intervention
No matter what product, as long as there is a good profit, if the government does not intervene, sooner or later the supply exceeds demand. If the government intervenes less, the price of big cities will not be so high. The following is a limited purchase limit to explain to everyone:
When house prices rose, local governments began to sell land madly, and started a lot of business to buy land to build houses. Because there was a time period for developing houses, market supply could not be generated immediately, house prices continued to rise, and public grievances began to boil. The central government began to adopt regulatory policies. For example, the restriction on purchases and loans has caused the market to be frozen. This has seriously changed the expectations of developers. The pace of development has slowed down. The land has not been taken up, and the supply has not increased significantly, but the demand has not disappeared. After a period of time to lift the regulation, the accumulated demand is like a volcanic eruption. Due to the lack of substantial increase in supply, the housing market continues to be in short supply, housing prices are starting to rise, and investment speculative funds are involved.
House prices continue to rise, local governments began to sell a lot of land, developers are eager to buy land, and have not had time to develop a lot, the central government has begun to regulate and reunite. If our government issues policies, consider the feelings of the developers. After all, they are the main suppliers of the house, giving them a complete market. It is a good choice to make a lot of money to make money. Oversupply is only a matter of time.
Real estate hidden rules:
The real estate market is relatively a market with a relatively high degree of marketization. The various links are as follows:
Government: The government monopolizes the market supply. In principle, it will control the market and sell it slowly. In fact, under the current political ecology, no one will leave the land for the next sale, sell it for sale, develop the economy, and engage in Political achievements are the best choice; even if they will be re-elected, the market of the land market will fluctuate. When the market is good, it will be sold quickly. It is the best policy to raise money for political achievements. No one will consider 10 years and 20 years.
Developers: Most of the developers are private enterprises. When the market is good, the market will go fast. If the market is not good, it will slow down the pace. After all, it is your own money.
Buyers: Buying up and not buying down, when the market is good, investment speculation has come; when the market is not good, investment speculation does not work, just need to wait and see.
To sum up: Real estate and other industries are not much different. When the market is good, developers from all walks of life flocked in, and they took the land to build houses until the surplus was sold. For example, the third and fourth tiers are not limited to purchase cities, but the big city real estate has a different feature, that is, the restriction on purchases and loans, the purchase of limited-limit loans is not in demand, creating many investment opportunities.
Investment experience of the house:
To invest in a property, you must be aware of some of the properties of the property itself.
1. Area and corresponding population
90 square meters or less (small size)
90-140 square meters (small and medium-sized units)
140-200 square meters (large and medium-sized units)
200 square meters or more (large size) enjoy the demand
Investment property involves two aspects of buying and selling. Now it is a good time to sell a 90-140 square meter house and buy a 140-200 square meter house. Because 90-140 is now the most demanding house, some are in short supply, 140-200 square meters supply and demand are basically balanced, can buy a cost-effective house, with the economic and social development, 140-200 square meters demand will be larger and larger. Investment must be somewhat forward-looking.
2. Lots, lots, lots
There are some differences between the location of the real estate investment and the traditional ring-based location. The location of the real estate investment is based on the convenience and time of the CBD, plus education and commerce as an auxiliary standard.
3. Construction of the subway
Many people think that the construction of the subway is to facilitate the residents to travel, in fact, the subway is mainly to connect the CBD, development zone, transportation hub. Understand the above reasons, you will know that the subway will be built first.
4, the difference between buying a house and investing in a house
Buying a house and investing in a house are two completely different kinds of thinking. Nowadays, many people are entangled in mixing these two situations.
1. Self-occupation to buy a house is concerned about whether the house price has risen after a period of time, and does not care about the cost. In the case that the country does not park water, the trend of house prices in first- and second-tier cities is always upward.
Conclusion: You can buy it at any time in a first- and second-tier city. If you can buy it at a better point by using the buying skills I wrote earlier, it will be perfect.
2. Investing in buying a house: investing in buying a house is concerned with income, and cost is the most important thing, especially the cost of holding. The golden age of investing in real estate has passed, and the good days of making money when you buy it are gone. It is very important to invest in real estate to buy and sell now, and decide whether there is any benefit.
The house is also up 20% in 3 years. It may be very happy to be self-occupied. High is incredible, and the investment may be bitter. The price of the house can be split into various components so that it can be assessed whether the price is degraded and whether there is prospect in the future.
House price = location (30-40%) + community and house quality (20-30%) + neighborhood environment (10%-15%) + education resources (5-20%) + secondary business resources (about 10%) +Business resources (10%)
Lot: The convenience and time of reaching the mainstream CBD.
Educational resources: Educational resources account for a large proportion of the price structure of some houses, but educational resources are often adjusted and have certain risks.
The above composition is clear, and the prospect of the house is very clear. For example, in the urban area, the above composition is very mature, the price of the house already contains the above components, and the house's rise and fall with the general trend, no additional surprises. The suburbs and the urban fringe are different, repairing the subway, rising, building a school, rising, building a commercial center, rising, which is why the urban margin is far greater than the city center.
When will the price of Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen go to the turning point?
The house is also a commodity, and the relationship between supply and demand is always effective. Although various interventions distort supply and demand, it is sooner or later to return to normal.
Restricted purchase limit loans inhibit the enthusiasm of developers, reduce first-hand supply, high transaction taxes and fees inhibit second-hand supply, supply shortages lead to soaring prices, but the tree can not grow to the sky, when house prices rise to a certain extent, effective demand will Sharply reduced, not much supply will be surplus, house prices will have an inflection point, investment speculative funds will be withdrawn, and house prices will enter the downtrend channel. What is the extent of the fall? A reasonable income-to-price ratio and a rental-to-sale ratio are the support points for housing prices. Take Shanghai as an example:
The highest point of housing prices: the average price near the People's Square is about 180,000, Xujiahui is around 130,000, and Xinzhuang is around 90,000.
Price support point: the average price near the People's Square is about 140,000, Xujiahui is about 100,000, and Xinzhuang is about 60,000.
Then, as incomes rise and rents rise, house prices will slowly rise, but it is not possible to make a fortune by investing in real estate.
The above predictions are purely personal opinions, so let's take a look at the story.
Real estate and finance
Real estate and finance are like a pair of twin sisters, and there is very little money to buy a house at all. Learning financial knowledge, not only can buy a house to take a detour, but also change some people's thinking.
At present, the loans that individuals can access are divided into three categories: credit loans, mortgage loans, and mortgage consumer loans. For example, Xiaofeng is my fellow, and I have to leave Shanghai to work in Hangzhou in 2014. He has a two-bedroom house in Yangpu, Shanghai, and wants to sell it to Hangzhou to buy a house. Asked my opinion, I was criticized for a meal, gave him a plan: I also lost the remaining 200,000 mortgages, then mortgaged consumer loans of 700,000, interest 1.2 times, and then took 700,000 to Hangzhou mortgage a good House of. With a change of mind, there will be two houses for a little toss, and the house prices in 2015 and 2016 will rise. Now the house has a value-added of 2 million.
The above example can be seen as a story, with a focus on understanding financial products.
How to buy a house to buy in the low position:
1. To the real estate agent in the selected area to hang a number, if these agents frequently call you, it is definitely not a good time to buy, slowly the intermediary gives you fewer and fewer calls, even if you don’t fight, I have to buy it quickly, the intermediary will not call you. The general situation is that there are too many customers to the store. There is no time and no need to take care of you.
2. Look at the trading center every week or every two weeks, and then combine the first one, generally can buy in a lower position.
Characteristics of rising house prices:
The golden age of investing in real estate has passed, and there is not much chance of simply buying a house and waiting for appreciation.
Looking at the price changes from 2000 to the present, you will find several characteristics:
1. The rise is getting slower and slower, and the real estate industry is entering a mature stage.
2. The rise is not a uniform increase, it is often adjusted for a few years, and then a short-term big rise, which is consistent with human nature. When you buy, you don’t buy it. When you go up, everyone comes over and buys. When you adjust, everyone will wait and see.
3. Accurately choose the city/region/product, and grasp the time of buying and selling to make big money.
There are two income points for investing in real estate. One is the difference between buying and selling, and the other is rent. The investment should be built around this. There are two concepts in investing in real estate. One is to make money when you buy it, and the other is to make money later.
Now investing in real estate should pay attention to accounting cost income:
Cost = down payment cost + mortgage loan cost + buy and sell transaction tax
Income = rent + buy and sell spread
Now the annual devaluation is a little more than 10%, and there are quantitative calculation formulas:
Depreciation = financial institution's total asset growth rate - GDP
Advice to everyone:
Do you feel that everyone around you is talking about buying a house? How familiar is this scene? The stock market in June of that year also appeared. When ordinary people are discussing one thing, the tragedy may begin, and the 20/80 principle is effective. It’s not that investing in a house is definitely not making money, but the difficulty is already high.
Many people have a wrong thinking. They feel that they have bought a house. No matter whether they are up or down, there is a real thing there, and they will not suffer.
Investing in real estate is a big deal, everyone has to do more homework, while
1. Ask people who are familiar with real estate in the neighborhood before deciding to ask.
2, to be cost-conscious, the down payment of funds and loans are all cost, transaction taxes are also costs. For example, a 20% increase in three years is definitely not profitable.
3. Renting and selling will be a very important investment indicator in the future.
4, investment can not take it for granted, learn more, calmly think.
In fact, everyone has not experienced the counter-cyclical cycle of the housing market. If you are fortunate enough to buy a house in some places in Shenzhen in 2007, in 1998, you will face a decline over the down payment. You have to pay interest and mortgage, if you are investing Real estate, poor rent is less than 2%, far less than interest. Heaven, earth, where I got the property, it was a bomb.
Later, it was good for the country to give force, and soon began to release water, liberating everyone. Even if the country does not release water, it will eventually be untied, because the house was still in short supply, but the panic caused the demand to shrink sharply, and the demand will still be released after a while.
Time has passed, and nowadays, in most cities, if there is no limit on the purchase of loans, the market will develop freely and there will be excess in 1-2 years. If the investment is inadvertent and bought at a high point, many people will realize that it is better to die than to die.
Investment is cruel, regardless of property or other.
There are always opportunities to make money, but this opportunity will be more of a professional investor in the future. Ordinary people want to make money, either work hard to become a professional, or find a professional to help. Now that the housing market has entered the late stage of this wave of market, it is already a chicken rib, waiting for the next cycle is a wise choice.
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