Mr. Zhang, who lives in Beijing, has extensive experience in platform investment. Recently, he said to NetEase Celestial that he has been favoring buying products on a platform for many years, but recently found that the platform has re-adjusted interest rates in early April, which has had a significant impact on revenues compared to the previous period.
In this regard, online lending took a look at a number of platform websites and discovered that some platforms have indeed released “Adjustment Bulletins for Product Interest Rates” in the near future. Does this mean that the arrival of “cut interest rates?”
In 2018, 22 companies have issued interest rate announcements
According to incomplete statistics of online lending, in the survey of 80 online lending platforms, from January this year to now, 22 platforms have announced the announcement of interest rate adjustments related to the platform in their official website.
Judging from the effective date of the announcement, in January of this year, four platforms, including Xinxue Credit, Mavericks Online, e Road Tongxin, and Baocai.com, began to implement the adjusted new interest rate; in March, a total of 11 platforms began to implement interest rate cuts. Home, respectively, Micro-State Finance, You and I Loan, Qian Mancang, Yan Rong Network, Lian Jin Suo, Tuo Dao Jin Fu, Pocket Banking, Wan Ying Financial, Gold Fed, Shanghai Fortune, All e-loan; effective in April There are four platforms for new interest rates, including Guangcai Credit, Fortune Zhihui, Love Money, and Fu Rongbao. As of the beginning of May, the three platforms with new interest rates were Totem Credit, Palm Entertainment, and Guangzhou E-loan.
Why do some platforms choose to issue a rate cut announcement in the near future? In this regard, Tian Qin Institute analyst Zhang Qin believes that the interest rate cut is the guiding direction of the policy, cut interest rates for the platform can reduce costs. Current policies such as the prohibition of time limit splitting, quotas, anti-crime, etc., have increased the operating costs of the platform. In addition, as the risk control level increases, there are fewer quality assets after screening, so the continuous improvement from the platform's compliance. In terms of development, interest rate cuts are a major trend.
The monthly return rate of the industry in the first 4 months of this year basically shows an upward trend
Will the announcement of interest rate cuts issued by multiple platforms affect the overall profitability of the industry? At present, from the statistics of the Tianyan Research Institute, the announcement of interest rate cuts on the platform has little effect on the overall yield of the industry.
According to the statistics of the Tianyan Research Institute for the first four months of this year, the average comprehensive interest rate of the online loan industry was 9.71% in January this year, which was 0.15 percentage points higher than that in December and 0.10 percentage point lower than the same period of last year. In February of this year, the average interest rate of the online loan industry was 9.69%, which was basically the same as in January and the same period of last year. In March this year, the average comprehensive interest rate of the online loan industry was 9.79%, slightly higher than in February and the same period of last year. In April of this year, the average comprehensive interest rate of the online banking industry was 9.97%, slightly higher than the previous month and the same period last year.
Platform raises interest rates
Although some platforms announced and implemented interest rates after interest rate cuts, the overall interest rate of the industry did not show a downward trend.
For the reasons for this phenomenon, Tian Qin Institute analyst Zhang Qin believes that, at present, the industry is not evenly distributed resources, market competition is fierce, the platform rely on interest rate rebate activities to attract new customers to stabilize old customers, but also make the industry interest rates appear The situation is still high.
The online lending days actually found on some platforms' official websites that several platforms had been in order to attract investors to publish notices of “rising interest rate rebates”. For example, on the 9th of April, Qi Lerong released the “5 Raise Interest Rate, Come on Green” campaign.
Future interest rates will decline and remain stable
Although the average overall interest rate of the online loan industry in the first four months of this year has basically shown an upward trend, from the perspective of the fluctuations in the past year, the average comprehensive interest rate of the online loan industry will continue to be within the range of 9%-10%.
Regarding whether or not there will be a surge in interest rates before and after filing, the relevant person in charge of Baocai.com also expresses his views. He believes that “there may be a surge in interest rates in the future, but this is an overall trend in the industry.” At the same time, he also stressed that “the tide of interest rate cuts is not seen. It is a bad thing. It represents the development trend of stable and compliant management and intelligence in the industry."
Tian Qin Institute analyst Zhang Qin also believes that the big platform to cut interest rates and interest rates in the small and medium-sized platform will form a tangled saw effect, interest rates are fluctuating. There should not be large fluctuations in interest rates before and after filing. Zhang Qin said that if the record is successfully completed, the platform will force the layout of the market for a period of time after the record is filed, and the interest rate may also increase during this period of time. After all, high-yield is a major competition for P2P platforms, banks, licensees, and other industry peers. Key points, but as the industry structure slowly stabilizes, interest rates will eventually rely on the industry's big platform, that is, it will decline.
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