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Chengdu, Xi'an leads the new wave of house grabs, which city houses are being robbed

Time: 2018-05-10         Source: Intelligence Valley Trends         Author: intersection uncle

  01

The Yaohao buys houses, which can be called the epic suspense film of the Chinese property market.

Seven cities that have already implemented Yaobao purchases have appeared one after another in this suspense film, panic-stricken and fluttering:

Nanjing: On November 15, 2017, within 10 days, a total of 3200 suites were opened, tens of thousands of people stayed up in the queue, and the full amount of shakes robbed the room;

Wuhan: In the first half of December 2017, Wuhan opened nine consecutive flights, which were sold out on a daily basis;

Changsha: On November 25, 2017, a property in Changsha was publicly shaken. There were 167 sets of houses, 2298 groups were recognized, and the winning rate was only 9.5%, setting a record of the lowest successful rate in the Changsha market; on December 24, 541 units went public. Raised more than 5,000 people;

Chengdu: At the beginning of March 2018, more than 50,000 people from 400 houses participated in the shake, and the winning rate was less than 1%;

Shanghai: On April 21, 2018, a luxury residential building located in Central, Shanghai, opened its housing market. 382 sets of luxury homes with a total price of 10 million to 20 million attracted 751 customers. The sales amount was approximately 5.8 billion yuan at noon.

Xi'an: April 19, 2018, 700 suites 5,000 people shake;

Hangzhou: On May 7, 2018, nearly 3,000 people grabbed 177 suites and a 98-year-old Hangzhou grandmother Yao Xiang bought the room...

The grabbing of the Chinese cabbage-like “fighting room tide” has flooded from the first- and second-tier cities along the coast into the new line in the Mainland. The “policy-lived” policy has already been distorted.

The most recent hotspot cities are the cities of Xi'an and Chengdu, where the city has staged two western cities with textbook-level and fine-style control.

  02

In China, housing prices in a capital city are too low and it seems that they have been pinned on shame pillars. A few years ago, prices in Zhengzhou and Xi’an were almost equal, but by the beginning of 2017, the price of Zhengzhou was already twice that of Xi’an. In the early Xi'an, it took a series of five rounds of regulation and control, but in the end it couldn't help stimulating prices. Xi'an’s housing prices rose more than 50% in the past year, and this year it has accumulated more than 10%.

Source: China House Prices

Finally, Xi'an has the courage to shout out the slogan “Xi'an is the most China” and proves with strength that it really is the "valuable depression" in the crowd.

According to the China Securities Journal, there was a hot scene in the 700 suites with 5,000 people shaking hands. There was a Mr. Li sighed. "Shake the eight properties and did not shake it. I didn't go to work after two months of absence to buy a house."

This enthusiasm is not only in the municipal area. When we ran to Xiwei Village, the westernmost part of Xi'an, and bordered Xianyang City, even if the surrounding transportation facilities were inconvenient, the facilities for education and business services were not perfect, and we could not stop the desire of young people just graduated. The 248 suites entered the city and there was a hundred meters long queue at the entrance of the marketing center that day. Do not look far away from the city, where the listing is still difficult to grab.

After five rounds of property market regulation and follow-up, Xi’an prices have gone from being quiet to erupting.

It can only be said that Xi'an was lucky, and that “the weather, the geographical location, the people, and the peace” all ate.

Tian Shi: "Take Xi'an as a leading player in the northwest"

In February 2018, the "Guanzhong Plain City Cluster Development Plan" was officially released, which clearly defined Xi'an's status as the ninth national center city. The concept of speculation is a good show for Chinese stock and property markets.

Geographical location: downtown

Xi'an has been in short supply for three consecutive years. According to statistics of Yijuke and Rui, in 2017, the residential housing volume in Xi’an was 15.7395 million square meters, and it maintained more than 15 million square meters for three consecutive years. However, the three-year supply scale was smaller than the transaction volume in the same period. Among them, the supply scale in 2017 was 13.318 million square meters, the gap was about 15%, and the gap in 2016 was more than 60%.

According to the 21st Century Business Herald, people in the industry generally believe that the delisting period of residential inventory is less than 5 months in hot areas such as Qujiang New District, Economic and Technological Development Zone and Hi-tech Development Zone. Individuals think that it is less than 3 months.

From November of last year to March of this year, commercial houses in Xi’an were in the “destocking” phase. By the end of March and early April, most of the inventory was sold out, and new listings failed to report, resulting in the emergence of no homes to sell in the Xi’an market. .

In recent years, due to the need for pollution control and reduction, Xi’an has imposed a “duty prohibition” during the heating season in winter. During the annual college entrance examination and examination period, Xi’an also has a period of downtime of approximately one month. When it comes to poor air quality, it will also be required to stop work. Re-calculate the impact of rainy weather, the annual "effective period is only about 6 months." "Even if we increase the horsepower, it is difficult to ensure adequate supply."

Renhe: Qianjun Wanma Jinchang

In the past two years, the most surprising move in the property market has been “shed change”, and Xi’an is no exception. In 2015 and 2016, based on the completion of the monetization resettlement rate of 40% and 51% respectively, the monetization resettlement rate in Xi’an in the first half of 2017 has reached 70.51%, and the data is very bright.

However, as a second-tier city, Xi’an is still busy “stuck people”.

After the "laxiest" settlement policy was introduced in March 2017, Xi'an really took a fight, and the leaders also specially went to the Chengdu Tianfu New District Family Register Center, where "the talented people had a great success." Learn advanced, find gaps, and make up for shortcomings."

In the Spring Festival this year, an eye-catching “population fight for tough battles” was officially launched.

In the following March, the “New Talent of the Talents” was launched, and colleges and universities were allowed to settle in the area. The first day they settled in 8,000 people and moved into 15,000 people in three days. In the first quarter, the number of households newly registered in the first quarter reached 300,000. More than last year's annual increase in household registrations, it is not a dream to increase millions every year.

Since the introduction of the settlement policy in March 2017, Xi'an has attracted more than 550,000 people. In the past 10 years from 2007 to 2016, the permanent population of Xi'an has only increased by 526,700.

Xi'an, on the one hand, carries out "strict regulation" on the one hand, and on the other hand can't help but stimulate the property market by creating a large number of market demands through the policy of "recruiting people". House prices have turned over from 8k to 2w, which is really magical.

  03

Xi'an's learning object, Chengdu, is even more open to policy.

Chengdu also imposes strict restrictions on purchases and prices. Why is the property market still experiencing such a fluctuating phenomenon?

First of all, it was also the "picker battle" that began last year.

The low-threshold settlement policy created a net increase of 36.4 million registered households in Chengdu in 2017, a record high, becoming a hit in cities, and home prices are also proud to record a 71% annual increase.

 

Source: China House Prices

However, the reason why Chengdu’s 50,000 people seized 400 suites is somewhat different from that of Xi’an.

In addition to the demand brought by newly recruited talents, there is a phenomenon behind Chengdu's grabbing of houses: The prices of new and second-hand housing have been seriously reversed.

According to the data from the Chain Home Research Institute, the second quarter of 2018, the proportion of second-hand housing prices in Chengdu has reached 88%, which is the most serious city in the country.

On this hot rush to buy real estate, hardcover with the average price is 14000-16000 a level, while the average price of second-hand housing nearby is in the 27,000 to 30,000 or so.

Buy a new house in the same location, you can get 50% off the price, who does not want to grab this pricing?

The luck with luck, this imaginative space is a huge operation, who do not want to line up?

If the locals were fortunate enough to get a new house, they sold their hands to sell the old house, evaded the policy and got the white money. Who would not want to fry this room?

Isn't it "buy and earn"?

However, many people did not expect that this kind of naked real estate speculation was brought about by the “price limit” policy.

In 2017, 16 hot-spot cities monitored and controlled by the country all received the “military order” from the State Council. The price of newly-opened real estate was not allowed to increase on a monthly basis. The red line was not allowed in October 2016. It is necessary to guard against house prices, otherwise interviews are no longer required. responsibility.

This red line is not difficult for first-tier cities that have enjoyed a doubling of housing prices. However, for the second-line provincial capital, Chengdu, which has a long rising reflex arc, is completely a disaster. In October 2016, house prices in Chengdu have not yet risen. Wait until the funds began to spill from the front line, Chengdu second-hand housing began all the way up, but new home prices have been suppressed under the red line in October 2016.

In October 2016, the highest house price in Chengdu's central area was 161,000 square meters. Therefore, today's new housing prices in Chengdu's downtown area must not exceed 16,000, which is the origin of the guide price.

The price limit has caused distortions in the price of new homes and further contributed to the imbalance between supply and demand.

Tension on the one hand, on the one hand, grabs more people, and on the other hand there are developers.

Even if the policy rigorously checks the developers' approval, but you have Zhang Liangji, I have had bridges and the routine is always more difficult than it is.

In Chengdu, some developers specifically stated that the pre-sale permit was lost and the opening time could be delayed. If the funds were not tight, they would rather not be "selling".

The cause of these panic and change phenomena is that residents are generally bullish on house prices, they just need to worry about housing, and there are policy distortions to the market.

  04

The tide of grabbing houses in Xi'an and Chengdu has roughly enriched the backlash of all the strict controls in China.

Most of the grabs took place in cities that were crowned with new lines and strong second lines.

The innate foundation of these cities is good. Under the general trend of China's economy, it belongs to all places of hope. Even if there is no “Great Bay Area of ​​Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao” or “central city of the nation”... Such blessed blessings also belong to the population, capital, and intelligence of the region. Enter the ground.

Chengdu's first-hand house and second-hand housing prices are upside down, representing a kind of reason for the Chinese property market to grab a strange house.

In order to stabilize housing prices, many places in China strictly limit the sales price of new homes, which has resulted in the government’s approved sales price being significantly lower than the transaction price of second-hand housing in the same period, ranging from RMB 2,000 to RMB 3,000.

Thus, in the "grab is to earn" mentality, in disguise stimulated the tide of room grab.

As for the special features of Xi'an, the mainland cities are too firm in implementing the regulatory policies, but they have missed a wave of rising housing prices in the country.

Unexpectedly, overall policies have become more stringent in recent years, but there will be a retaliatory rebound sooner or later when the value of the market's supply and demand rate deviates seriously.

The house is of course used to live. However, serious deviations from the basic laws of the market and control for control are inevitable.

Dozens of cities, hundreds of banks, all loan interest rates, all in the "find 360 housing" (fangdai123) public number, click on the menu "buy house tools", with the best interest rates, buy the most favorite house.

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