# Finally found this round of regulation of the property market!

Time: 2018-05-09         Source: Rice Basket Investment         Author: Mr. A

Foreword:

Regulation is to guess. Do you expect house prices to continue to rise? Then I will fill the knife!

1 Guess

Xiao Wang has a bunch of friends and friends, often partying to the night, which makes his wife very dissatisfied. Um... Xiao Wang has a way. The problem is that Xiao Wang’s wife also has a way.

At the beginning, Xiao Wang lied to his wife: Recently, the company was too busy, new projects, and often work overtime. My wife later wondered: This company is also busy with stages, and new projects are not likely to be frequent.

Xiao Wang made up again to his wife: a new brain leader, asked this question to sort out the form every day. This new leader always has the moment to get on the right track. Until my wife is worried: You are eating outside the sea!

Therefore, after the wife let Xiao Wang get off work, he must send a positioning screenshot - prove that he does work overtime in the company. Xiao Wang also has a solution: first cut the map in the company, and then send pictures to his wife during the party.

The wife knows that Xiao Wang is the first screenshot and then sends the picture, and then Xiao Wang must share the real-time location. Xiao Wang couldn’t get back this time. He went to the flower shop to buy a bunch of flowers before the party. After he got home, he didn’t wait for his wife to worry about it.

Of course, this is a fabricated story. There are very few such pampered kings and few such stupid wives. However, in real life, it is not uncommon for a wife to restrain her husband, her husband's anti-binding wife, her wife's anti-binding and anti-binding, and her husband's anti-binding and anti-binding constraints.

What do you want to explain?

Society is a dynamic change - a change occurs, there will be new changes to deal with this change, and then there will be newer changes to deal with this change... with this infinite loop.

Yes, this is the game that everyone often talks about - not a single game, but a repeated game that exists widely in social and economic life. In the case of Xiao Wang and his wife, it is a process of repeated games - when the flowers are not used, Xiao Wang will make updated patterns.

The country is an enlarged version of the family, and they also guess each other: the people want to buy a house to speculate to make quick money, the government will chase the restrictions.

The process of property market regulation is the process of mutual guessing.

The process of property market regulation is the process of repeating the game.

The process of property market regulation is the process of coping with the response.

2 quasi-regulation

Regardless of the report of the 19th National Congress, the government reports of the two conferences, and even the various heavyweight government conferences (political bureau meetings/central financial conferences, etc.), the big leaders have repeatedly stressed that "the house does not live," A line of thinking has gradually been implemented to the provinces, cities and counties. Some people who have experienced the skyrocketing housing prices in 2016, because of the "double expansion of real estate" stimulation, where is still so much?

The people think: I don't care, I have to make real money to make real money!

The government said: As you are, I will fight against the speculators!

Therefore, the height of the magic is one foot high, and you come to me to cycle through the game. Starting from the “10·1” in 2016, the national property market has adjusted a game of chess and quickly spread to cities.

The government limits the purchase limit to real estate speculation, the corresponding policy for buying a house is: break the purchase limit - divorce, on behalf of the holding, the law to shoot the house; break the limit loan - divorce after the analysis of the post-production no room (at that time, the house does not recognize the loan), credit Consumer loans to buy a house, mortgage real estate loans to buy a house, the full amount of money to buy a house and then mortgage loans; broken real estate - investment is still, real estate speculation, speculation is still.

The government immediately made a new response: the buyer who is not allowed to buy new homes within one year of divorce, the buyer of the law-making house must also have the qualification to purchase a house; the limit-based loan is strengthened – the house is re-granted, and the first set of qualifications is greatly reduced; credit funds are strictly prohibited from entering the property market. The mortgage loan limit is 1 million; the house is restricted for sale, the time ranges from 2 years to 10 years.

Although the overall price of the country has stabilized, there is a possibility of a rebound under strong pressure. Therefore, it is proposed to establish a long-term mechanism of “multi-subject supply, multi-channel guarantee, and rent-and-purchase housing system”.

From the local to the central government, the price information has to go through a long chain of information, so it is proposed to “make policy for the city” – local governments manage their own housing prices, no matter what method is used, the house prices can not rise anyway, thus shortening the decision-making chain of property market regulation. .

Therefore, we have seen the tight distinction between the regulation of the local property market:

Lanzhou has relaxed restrictions on purchases in some areas;

Shanghai/Hangzhou/Nanjing/Chengdu and other cities have stepped up the regulation of the property market and selected the house by shaking the number;

Cities such as Zhengzhou/Xi'an/Changsha have no new relaxation or tightening policies, and they are also introducing policies to attract outstanding young people;

After the Hainan Free Trade Zone and the Free Trade Port continued to attract high prices, the government immediately strengthened regulation and control on the whole island based on the original regulation.

......

The regulation of the property market is expected to regulate.

Stabilizing housing prices is a stable expectation.

If you control your success, you have to be quasi-minded.

3 prediction is difficult

In the twenty-year real estate bull market, the period of regulation and control has continued, and the accompanying rise is that house prices have risen all the way. Because of the push, people have strengthened a consensus: because of macroeconomic regulation, so prices have skyrocketed.

The real situation is: housing prices are urbanization (look at how many people around you and the people from the countryside), economic development (look at the GDP growth in the past two decades), currency issuance (look at the M2 balance in the past two decades) As a result of comprehensive factors, people can only see the regulation of the property market, but ignore other factors.

Therefore, since 2016, the regulation has been almost two years, but the idea of ​​people buying a house and getting rich has not been annihilated: whether it is WeChat group/public, or Weibo/Forum and other online platforms, even some intellectual planets/minutes. Waiting for a knowledge payment platform, where to buy a house? Which district to buy? How to break the purchase limit? How to maximize the use of debt leverage? Still the hottest topic of discussion.

Everyone has already formed a path dependence - the property market regulation is useless, the more regulation and control, the house price is always rising, the currency is depreciated every year, and the loan is earned... Catch the opportunity to buy a house, even if it is highly leveraged.

Really?

When the Chinese collapse theory emerged in 1990/2000/2010, the immigrants who bought the property perfectly missed the dividend of the Chinese economy.

In 2014 and 2015, the big players predicted that the real estate silver era will come, but then it ushered in a magnificent rise.

At the end of 2016, almost everyone was bearish on the renminbi exchange rate, and the renminbi went out of the market.

When everyone was still worried about the smoggy season over the northern winter, there were few blue sky and white clouds in the winter of 2017.

Why are predictions frequently hit?

Because it is a repeated game, because it is change to cope with change, because the people's minds and actions will lead to the government's relative policy. The external environment is ever-changing, and the predictable assumptions are constant. Why not be beaten? Concurrent/multi-core/credit card financing looks for a lot of property in the market. It seems that it still lives in the past world.

That round of regulation will certainly succeed? Not necessarily. Looking at whether the external environment has undergone major changes, what if you encounter another black swan like the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis or the 2015 “three to one and one subsidy”?

The prediction is not allowed, and there is no judgment or direction. What should ordinary people do?

4 What to do

Take constant change and grasp the roots - you are the root of everything.

The more information, the more anxious, the more opinions you have, the less you know right or wrong. How to do?

There are two principles to be followed in obtaining information: first, what you can decide, and second, what you have to do. That is, people often say that they don’t want to eat the oil of the trench and manipulate the heart of Zhongnanhai.

Can the Sino-US trade war not fight? how to spell? You can't decide, and there is no response;

Will North Korea break out of nuclear war in the future? How to stop it completely? You can't decide, and there is no response.

Real estate tax is not charged? How to collect? If you have a house or even a house, you can't decide, and there is no response. Is it true that you will not be sleeping when you collect property taxes?

Instead of being addicted to these inconspicuous things, it is better to think about how to improve the practicality of job promotion and salary increase, and it is not as valuable as the work of the child. The same is true for buying a house. It is based on your own actual decision-making. Don't be confused by the speculation of the property market and the general situation.

What is the purpose of the house? Living, and the resulting investment, financing and other functions. Therefore, when choosing a house, we must follow the principle of “can live, rent, sell, and finance”.

People only have 24 hours a day, so we must grasp the "one-hour commute circle" - according to the current traffic technology, that is, the circle formed by the city radius of 25 kilometers.

Have you chosen a house to buy? Look at your down payment and cash flow - the property market is going to leverage, the residents are going to leverage, your cash flow is stable, the leverage will not break, what is the relationship between leverage and you? Buy it and buy it.

After this principle is grasped, consult the experts/Great God/Big V, but the views are only references rather than superstitions. They are learning logic and methods, not specific opinions.

What can be seen in reality is that most people are fascinated with skills and tools, but they only know it, but they don’t know why, when a skill, tool, and bug appear and spread widely, the game comes. - The precautions about these techniques/tools/Bugs come, and you learn the skills and tools that lose value.

When everyone knows the standard of bamboo shoots, there will be no bamboo shoots;

When everyone knows about multi-core/concurrent black technology, there is no multi-core/concurrency;

When everyone knows that divorce / make up social security / legal shoot to obtain the qualification to buy a house, this method will be dead.

Whether it is buying a house or other investment, it is necessary to adapt to the situation, not to stick to it. It is not too late to act after the policy/trend is determined.

The only constant in the world is change, and the uncertainty and randomness of the world, please be full of awe!

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