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Finally found that this round of regulation of the property market regulation!

Time: 2018-05-09         Source: Rice Basket Investment         Author: Mr. A

Foreword:

Regulation is guessing. Do you expect housing prices to continue to rise? Then I will make up for the knife!

  1 Guess

Xiao Wang has a bunch of friends and friends. He often gathers in mink until late at night, which makes his wife very unhappy. Hmm... There is a way for Xiao Wang. The problem is that Xiao Wang’s wife has a solution.

At the beginning, Xiaowang lied to his wife: Recently, the company was too busy to work on new projects and often worked overtime. My wife later wondered: This company is also busy, and new projects are not likely to be frequent.

Xiao Wang made up his wife again: A new brain-wounded leader was asked to ask the daily ordering form. The moment the new leader is always on the right track. Until his wife made a fuss: Originally you are outside to eat the sea to drink!

So, after the wife let Xiao Wang work, he must send a positioning screenshot - to prove that he really works in the company. Xiao Wang also has a way to deal with it: First, he should take a good picture at the company and send a picture to his wife during the party.

The wife knew that Xiao Wang was taking screenshots and sending pictures first, and then Xiao Wang had to share the real-time location. Xiao Wang couldn’t stand it this time. He went to the flower shop to buy bouquets of flowers before the party. He didn’t wait for his wife to start worrying after arriving home.

Of course, this is a fabricated story. There are very few patience such as Xiao Wang and seldom such silly wives. However, in real life, it is not uncommon for a wife to restrain husbands and husbands from restraining their wives and wives from opposing their restraints and then restraining their husbands from being restrained and their husbands from restraining their own anti-constraint.

What do you want to explain?

Society is dynamic - a change comes in, there will be new changes to deal with this change, and then there will be newer changes to deal with changes in this change ... ... in this infinite cycle.

Yes, this is also the game that we often say - not a single game, but a widely repeated game in social and economic life. In the case of Xiao Wang and his wife, it is a process of repeating the game - when the flowers don't work anymore, Xiao Wang will use the updated tricks.

The state is an enlarged version of the family and guesses each other's mind: The people want to buy a house to make speculations to make quick money, and the government has to impose tight restrictions on it.

The process of property market regulation is the process of mutual guessing.

The process of property market regulation and control is the process of repeated games.

The process of regulation of the property market is to cope with the process.

  2 quasi-regulation

Whether in the 19th National Congress report or in the government reports of the two sessions, or even in various heavyweight government meetings (the Politburo meeting, the Central Financial Club, etc.), the big leaders repeatedly emphasized that "the housing does not live without speculation." A train of thought was gradually implemented in the provinces, cities, and counties. Some of the people who experienced the skyrocketing housing prices in 2016, because of the “double expansion of housing” stimulation, where is it so much?

People think: I don't care, I'm going to invest in real estate to make quick money!

The government said: As you go, I will fight against real estate speculators!

As a result, the height of the game is one foot high, and you will come to me to cycle between games. Starting from “10·1” in 2016, the national property market regulates one game and quickly spreads out to cities.

The government limits the purchase limit of real estate speculators, the corresponding policy is to buy a house: break the purchase limit - divorce, holdings, fortune house; broken limit loan - divorced analysis of the post-production name without housing (at that time the room does not recognize credit), credit Consumer loans to buy a house, mortgage real estate loans to buy a house, the whole paragraph to buy a house after the mortgage loan out of funds; broken real estate - investment remains, real estate remains the same, still speculation.

The government immediately responded with a new reaction: Divorce buyers who are not allowed to purchase new houses or forensic houses within one year must also have the qualifications to buy houses; the restricted-credit loans must be enhanced - they must also recognize the loans and significantly reduce the first set of qualifications; they must not allow credit funds to enter the property market. Mortgage consumer loans have a ceiling of 1 million; for housing sales, the time ranges from 2 years to 10 years.

Although the overall housing prices have stabilized, there may be a rebound under strong pressure. Therefore, it is proposed to establish a long-term mechanism of “multi-subject supply, multi-channel protection, and rent-purchase housing system”.

The price information from the local to the central government has to go through a long information chain. Therefore, it is proposed that “the city’s policy is adopted” – that is, local governments control their house prices. No matter what method is used, housing prices cannot be increased anyway, so as to shorten the decision-making chain of the property market regulation. .

As a result, we saw the tightness of the regulation of the property market in different regions:

Lanzhou relaxed the restrictions on purchase in some regions;

Shanghai/Hangzhou/Nanjing/Chengdu and other cities stepped up control of the property market, and Yaohao selected houses;

Cities such as Zhengzhou/Xi'an/Changsha have no new relaxation or tightening policies, and they are still introducing policies to attract outstanding young people;

After Hainan Free Trade Zone and Free Trade Ports continued to benefit, the government immediately increased investment in the promotion of high housing prices, and the government once again strengthened control over the entire island.

......

The regulation of the property market is the expected regulation.

Stable prices are stable expectations.

To control success, you must focus your mind.

  3 difficult to predict

Twenty years of real estate bull market during the continuous regulation and control, accompanied by rising prices all the way. Due to the promotion of fruit, people have reinforced a consensus that house prices have skyrocketed due to macroeconomic controls.

The real situation is: the rise in housing prices is urbanization (see how much people around you and you come from rural areas), economic development (see GDP growth in the past two decades), currency issuance (look at the last two decades of M2 balance (Changes) As a result of a combination of factors, people can only see the regulation of the property market but ignore other factors.

Therefore, regulation has been running smoothly since the beginning of 2016. Although it is almost two years, people’s idea of ​​buying a house that has become rich has not disappeared: whether it is a WeChat group/public number, or an online platform such as Weibo/Forum, or even some knowledgeable planets/points. And other knowledge payment platform, where to buy a house? Which area of ​​the house to buy? How to limit the purchase limit loan? How to maximize the use of debt leverage? Still the hottest topic of discussion.

Everyone has already formed a path dependence - the regulation of the property market is useless, the more regulation and control have increased, the price of housing has risen forever, the currency has depreciated sharply every year, and the loan is to earn ... to seize the opportunity to quickly buy a car on the house, even if it is highly leveraged.

Really?

1990/2000/2010 When the collapse theory in China was lifted, the people in immigration home perfectly missed the dividends of the Chinese economy.

In 2014 and 2015, the bigwigs predicted the arrival of the real estate silver age, and then it ushered in a magnificent rise.

At the end of 2016, almost everyone was bearish on the exchange rate of RMB7. As a result, the RMB has gone out of the uptrend.

When everyone was still worrying about the haze season over the northern winter, there were few blue sky and white clouds in the winter of 2017.

Why is the prediction frequently beaten?

Because it is a repetitive game, because it is a change to cope with change, because the people's mind and actions will lead to the government's relative policy. The external environment is in ever-changing conditions, and the predictable assumptions are constant. How can it not be faced? Concurrent/multi-core/credit-card financing The real estate multi-junk seems to be still alive in the past.

That round of regulation will surely succeed? Not necessarily. Looking at whether there has been a major change in the external environment, if we encounter a similar subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, or a black swan in 2015 that has gone three times a drop and one supplement?

The predictions are not accurate. They have no judgment and direction. What should ordinary people do?

  4 What to do

In order not to change, grasp the fundamental - you are the root of everything.

The more information you have, the more you are anxious. How to do?

There are two principles to follow when it comes to obtaining information: First, what you can decide on, and second, what you have to respond to, that is, what people often say is not to “take care of the heart of Zhongnanhai by eating the fate of cooking oil”.

Does the Sino-U.S. trade war not fight? how to spell? You can't decide, there's no response.

Will North Korea explode nuclear war in the future? How to stop it completely? You can't decide, there's no response.

Property tax does not collect? How to receive? You cannot decide on a house or even a house where you haven’t even a house. There is no response. Do you not collect property taxes and you don’t sleep?

Instead of being addicted to these irrelevant matters, it is better to think about how to improve the actual skills and the salary increase. It is not as good as giving more work to children. The same is true for buying a house. It is to make decisions based on your own reality and not to be confused by the turbulent forecast of the property market and the general trend.

What is the fundamental purpose of the house? Residency, and derived from this investment, financing and other functions. Therefore, when choosing a house, we must follow the principle of “can live, rent, sell, and finance”.

People only have 24 hours a day, so we must grasp the "one hour commuting circle" - according to the current traffic technology, that is, the circle formed by the city radius of 25 kilometers.

Can you buy a house if you choose it? Look at your down payment and cash flow. - Ah, the housing market goes to leverage, residents to leverage, your cash flow is stable, and the leverage does not break. What does deleveraging have to do with you? Buy it and buy it.

After this principle is well grasped, consult the experts/great gods/big Vs, but the viewpoints are merely references rather than superstitions. They learn logic and methods, not specific ideas.

It can be seen in reality that the overwhelming majority of people are venerated with skills and tools. They only know it, but they do not know why. When a skill, tool, and bug emerge and spread widely, the game comes. — The response to these tips/tools/bugs is a preventive measure. You learn skills and tools lose value.

When everyone knows the standard of bamboo plates, there is no bamboo plate;

When everyone knows multi-core/concurrent black technology, there will be no multi-core/concurrency.

When everyone knows that divorce/recruitment of social security/law-law acquisition qualifications, this method will end in vain.

Whether it is buying a house or other investment, we must adapt to the situation rather than stick to it, and we must wait until the policy/trend is confirmed.

The only constant in this world is change. Please be full of awe and indifference to the uncertainty and randomness of the world!

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