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the truth! The five major cities were dragged by real estate.

Time: 2018-05-08         Source: Liu Xiaobo         Author: Liu Xiaobo

Money and people are the two most important factors in the economy.

Where money and people flow, where they will thrive. Shanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen, the reason why these cities can rise rapidly in just 30-40 years is because they have successfully brought together people and money by "marginal meetings."

In 2017, where did China's people flow? In the past, there was much analysis in the media. It is generally believed that Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Wuhan and other central cities are the biggest winners.

In fact, it is difficult to count the flow of population. Officials generally conduct a census in 10 years and a sample survey in 5 years. In addition to every 10 years and every five years, the permanent population is estimated by calculation (only the household registration population is accurate), plus performance evaluation (per capita indicators, control of population requirements), so the data is often distorted.

However, the statistics of funds have always been accurate. Because the central bank system is responsible for statistics, they have no affiliation with local governments, and financial data are not included in the main performance evaluation indicators (except for financial GDP), so at least "financial bank foreign currency deposits balance" (hereinafter referred to as "the total amount of funds ") This data is real.

This morning, I spent half a day sorting out the “total funds” of 25 cities and one province as of the end of March 2018, and the year-on-year changes in March last year to study the money in the Mainland in the past year. Where to concentrate. (Data from local statistical offices and central bank websites)

Or, which cities are becoming big winners in attracting funds.

Total capital of major cities in March 2018 (Unit: trillion RMB)


Total funds

Year-on-year increase
















































































National M2

174 trillion


Note: In the cities with the ♠ sign in the table, the data is as of the end of February 2018, and the figures are compared at the end of March 2017.

The 23 cities “from Beijing to Dongguan” in the table are the 23 cities with the largest “capital” in the Mainland. We can look at the forms first.

Baoding was included in the observation because the Xiong'an New District is under construction in Baoding and the time has reached one year. Langfang was included in the observation due to another “million-year plan”—the Beijing sub-center Tongzhou and the Beijing New Airport relying on Langfang. .

Hainan was included in the observation because Hainan has continuously tightened its real estate policy in the past half year, and it finally ushered in an overwhelming majority of good-island free trade zones and free ports.

  From the above table we can see:

1. Beijing is still far ahead, and the gap between Shanghai and Beijing seems to be widening. Why does Shanghai have the vast majority of financial factor markets in the country, and it still can't do anything about Beijing's total capital? The reason is simple: Beijing is the capital and the center of decision-making. Second, Beijing has half of China's unicorn enterprises and is also an innovation center. Beijing is a "fighting-centered city" of "financial center + technology center". The status of the science and technology center has become a world class.

In my previous column, I analyzed the changes in the population of Beijing and Shanghai in 2017, whether it was “number of students enrolled in primary schools”, “number of students enrolled in elementary schools”, “number of kindergarten enrollees”, “number of kindergarten students in the park”, or whether the electricity consumption of residents was used. All prove that Beijing's population is still growing rapidly, and that Shanghai does have a slow population growth.

Therefore, in the future, Beijing will most likely become the only "super-class city" in China. In the end, there were media rankings saying that Shanghai surpassed Beijing and only proved their sloppyness and ignorance.

As for the gap between Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and Beijing, there is no need to say anything about the data.

2. Among the four major first-tier cities, the growth rate of Shenzhen's capital is the fastest, and the gap with Guangzhou has reached 2 trillion yuan, which is almost the level of funds in Zhengzhou and Xi’an, or the entire Jilin Province. This shows that after Shenzhen's GDP surpassed that of Guangzhou last year, the gap between the total funds in the two places is still widening.

3. Obviously in Hangzhou, the total amount of funds reached 3.8 trillion, which is the strongest growth in the "3 trillion clubs." This can prove one of my arguments: The future of technology centers and new economic centers is more important than financial centers. Of course, it is best to become a “five-centered city + technology center” of all-you-can-eat cities.

4. Except for the growth of the capital gathered in Hangzhou in the past year that exceeds 10%, Changsha, Dongguan, and Shenyang have also exceeded 10%, and Wuhan and Nanjing have also grown very well. As for Zhengzhou, Xi’an, and Hefei, they have achieved great results in the fight for population. The growth of funds has been very good, but in the recent year they have slowed down.

Therefore, the biggest winners in the most recent year are: Changsha, Hangzhou, Shenyang, and Dongguan; in addition, cities such as Wuhan, Nanjing, Foshan, and Shenzhen are also good.

Why can Dongguan become a capital winner? The continuous shift of Shenzhen industry is the biggest reason. Think about it, Huawei's terminal business as a whole has moved past and will bring in much money. Currently in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau, Dawan District, Shenzhen is the only city with "substantial resource spillover capability". Hong Kong is no longer the case (overvaluation of the renminbi exchange rate is an important factor). Guangzhou is big enough and its own resources are not enough. Therefore, in the Greater Bay Area, the best way for a city to achieve incremental growth is to "take the advantage of Shenzhen." Guangzhou's emphasis on the development of Nansha and the realization of the city's southward approach to the Guangzhou-Shenzhen Science and Technology Corridor actually means this.

Shenyang's sudden counterattack, it is estimated that many people did not expect. In fact, there were signs before, and the number of primary school students in Shenyang increased by 8% from 2010 to 2016, making it the only city in Northeast China with significant population growth. Shenyang is a land transportation hub, and the population of Shenyang has grown substantially, confirming the “rejuvenation of road rights” that I first proposed. Shen anode may become a “National Center City” this year.

In contrast, Shenyang turned to the right and Dalian to the left. Dalian became one of the biggest losers in the past year. It lost 4.7% of its capital a year, and its rankings in the country have dropped by several. I have previously asserted that: With Liaoning's total economic output, it has been unable to support the Shenyang and Dalian dual centers, and it can only guarantee Shenyang. In the future, Dalian will become a "small and beautiful" city like Xiamen. In fact, there is nothing wrong with this.

5. In addition to Dalian, Tianjin, Langfang and Hainan are the most important losers. Langfang’s previous growth has been very good, and suddenly it has become a city in which capital has been lost. This is because of the stringent property market regulation in the Beijing-based region. Baoding has actually been affected.

Hainan became a loser, but also because of real estate regulation. In fact, the next year will be the most difficult time for Hainan. Real estate has already been “strengthened” by the “strong men,” and the policy dividend is still far away. The financial situation of Hainan will deteriorate sharply, and the future will only rely on central transfer payments. The Beijing area is also facing this situation. This is the price to be paid for economic restructuring. The future of these places is worth ignoring.

The situation in Tianjin is slightly more complicated. Not only the regulation of the property market, but also the data squeezed water, as well as the impact of economic restructuring and environmental protection. Binhai New Area needs to find a new location, as does Tianjin.

By the way, Chongqing’s “arrogant and aggressive era” is also very likely to end this year. The first quarter GDP and capital data showed this sign. Chongqing is actually a shadow city in Tianjin. Their path is very similar. Chongqing's rhythm is only half a beat.

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