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the truth! These five major cities have been dragged down by real estate.

Time: 2018-05-08         Source: Liu Xiaobo         Author: Liu Xiaobo

Money and people are the two most important factors in the economy.

Where money and people flow, where will thrive. Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Shenzhen, the reason why these cities can rise rapidly in just three or forty years is because they have successfully gathered money and people through the “successful meeting”.

In 2017, where people from China flowed, there was a lot of analysis in the past. It is generally believed that central cities such as Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and Wuhan are the biggest winners.

In fact, population movements are difficult to count. Officials generally conduct a population census in 10 years and a sample survey in 5 years. In addition to the 10th year, every 5 years, the resident population is estimated (only the registered population is accurate), coupled with the performance evaluation (per capita indicators, control of population requirements), so the data is often distorted.

But the statistics of funds have always been accurate. Because the central bank system is responsible for statistics, they have no affiliation with local governments, and financial data is not included in the main performance evaluation indicators (except financial GDP), so at least "the balance of local and foreign currency deposits of financial institutions" (hereinafter referred to as "the total amount of funds" ") This data is real.

This morning, I spent half a day sorting out the total amount of funds in 25 cities and 1 province as of the end of March 2018, as well as the year-on-year changes in March last year, to study the money in the mainland in the past year. Where to concentrate. (Data from local statistical bureaus, central bank websites)

Or, which cities are becoming big winners of attracting capital.

Total funds of major cities in March 2018 (unit: trillion yuan)

city

Total amount of funds

Year-on-year increase

Beijing

14.54

+4.3%

Shanghai

11.49

+4.2%

Shenzhen

7.01

+6.7%

Guangzhou

5.06

+5.2%

Hangzhou

3.80

+12.2%

Chongqing

3.61♠

+6.8%

Chengdu

--

--

Nanjing

3.25

+8.8%

Tianjin

3.06

-0.6%

Suzhou

2.72

+3.0%

Wuhan

2.49

+9.1%

Zhengzhou

2.09

+2.7%

Xi'an

2.03

+3.0%

Ningbo

1.79

+5.3%

Changsha

1.79

+12.6%

Jinan

1.63♠

+3.2%

Shenyang

1.63

+10.9%

Qingdao

1.57

+6.1%

Hefei

1.46♠

+1.4%

Foshan

1.45

+7.8%

Dalian

1.42

-4.7%

Fuzhou

1.39

+5.5%

Dongguan

1.31

+10.3%

     

Baoding

0.72

+3.3%

Langfang

0.61

-4.6%

Hainan

1.00

-0.9%

National M2

174 trillion

+8.2%

Note: The city with the ♠ mark in the table, the data is as of the end of February 2018, the comparison is the data at the end of March 2017.

The 23 cities in the table, “From Beijing to Dongguan”, are the 23 cities with the largest “capital total” in the Mainland. You can look at the form carefully.

Baoding was included in the observation because Xiong'an New District is under construction in Baoding, and the time has reached one year; Langfang was included in the observation because another “millennial plan” – Beijing sub-center Tongzhou, and Beijing New Airport rely on Langfang .

Hainan was included in the observation because Hainan has been tightening its real estate policy for the past six months, and it has finally ushered in a big advantage - the island's free trade zone and free port.

  From the above table we can see:

1. Beijing is still far ahead, and the gap between Shanghai and Beijing seems to be widening. Why does Shanghai have the vast majority of the financial factor market in the country, and still do not work in Beijing on the total amount of funds? The reason is very simple. Beijing is the capital and the decision-making center. Secondly, Beijing has half of China's unicorn enterprises and is also an innovation center. Beijing is a general-purpose city of “financial center + technology center”, and its status as a science and technology center has become world-class.

I have previously analyzed the changes in the population of Beijing and Shanghai in 2017, whether it is the number of students enrolled in primary schools, the number of students in primary schools, the number of students enrolled in kindergartens, the number of kindergartens in kindergartens, or the use of electricity by residents. Both prove that Beijing's population is still growing rapidly, and Shanghai's population growth is slow.

Therefore, in the future, Beijing is very likely to become the only “super-class city” in China. Finally, some media have said that Shanghai has surpassed Beijing and can only prove their sloppy and ignorant.

As for the gap between Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and Beijing, there is no more information on the data, so I don’t have to say anything more.

2. In the four major first-tier cities, Shenzhen's capital growth rate is the fastest, and the gap with Guangzhou has reached 2 trillion yuan, which is almost the capital level of Zhengzhou and Xi'an, or equivalent to the entire Jilin Province. This shows that after Shenzhen’s GDP exceeded Guangzhou last year, the gap between the two regions’ total funds is still widening.

3. Hangzhou is clearly making efforts. The total amount of funds has reached 3.8 trillion, which is the strongest growth in the “3 trillion clubs”. This can prove one of my assertions: the future of science and technology centers and new economic centers is more important than financial centers. Of course, it is best to become a general-purpose city of “financial center + technology center”.

4. In addition to Hangzhou's accumulated funds in the past year, the growth of funds exceeded 10%, Changsha, Dongguan and Shenyang also exceeded 10%. Wuhan and Nanjing also grew very well. As for Zhengzhou, Xi'an and Hefei, the results of the competition for the population are also very large. The funds have also grown very well, but in the most recent year they have slowed down.

Therefore, the biggest winners of funds in the past year are: Changsha, Hangzhou, Shenyang, Dongguan; in addition, Wuhan, Nanjing, Foshan, Shenzhen and other cities are also good.

Why can Dongguan become a fund winner? The constant transfer of Shenzhen's industry is the biggest reason. Think about it, Huawei's terminal business has all moved over and how much money will be brought. At present, in the Dawan District of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, Shenzhen is the only city with “substantial resource spillover capacity”, and Hong Kong is no longer (overvaluation of the RMB exchange rate is an important factor). Guangzhou is big enough and its resources are not enough. Therefore, in Dawan District, the best way for a city to gain incremental is to “account for Shenzhen’s cheaper”. Guangzhou’s focus on developing Nansha, realizing the city’s southwardness, and engaging in the Guangshen Science and Technology Corridor is actually what this means.

Shenyang suddenly attacked, and it is estimated that many people did not think of it. In fact, there were signs that Shenyang’s number of primary school students increased by 8% from 2010 to 2016, which is the only city in the Northeast with significant population growth. Shenyang is a land transportation hub, and Shenyang's population funds have grown substantially, confirming the “road rights revival” that I first proposed. It is possible that Shen Anode will become a “national central city” this year.

In contrast, Shenyang turned to the right and Dalian to the left. Dalian became one of the biggest fund losers in the past year. The annual capital loss was 4.7%, and the number of domestic rankings also dropped several. I have previously asserted that with the economic aggregate of Liaoning, it is no longer able to support the Shenyang and Dalian dual centers, and only to protect Shenyang. In the future, Dalian will become a “small and beautiful” city like Xiamen. In fact, there is nothing wrong with this.

5. In addition to Dalian, Tianjin, Langfang and Hainan are also the most important losers. Langfang’s growth has been very good, and suddenly it became a city with lost funds. It was because of the strict property market regulation in the Beijing area, and Baoding was actually affected.

Hainan has become a loser because of real estate regulation. In fact, the next year is the most difficult time in Hainan. Real estate has been broken by the “strong man”, and the policy dividend is still far away from the realization. The financial situation in Hainan will deteriorate sharply. In the future, it can only rely on the central transfer payment. This is also the case in the Central District. This is the price that economic transformation needs to pay, and the future of these places is worthy of embarrassment.

The situation in Tianjin is slightly more complicated. Not only the regulation of the property market, but also the data squeeze, as well as the impact of economic transformation and environmental protection. Binhai New Area needs to find a new position, and Tianjin is the same.

By the way, Chongqing’s “arrogant era” is also very likely to end this year. The first quarter GDP and capital data showed this sign. Chongqing is actually a shadow city in Tianjin. Their path is very similar, but Chongqing’s rhythm is slow.

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