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Your house may be dangerous! "High Speed ​​Rail New City" encountered regulation

Time: 2018-05-08         Source: Property Market Reference         Author: Liu Xiaobo

Important transition!

Today (May 7), the “National Development and Reform Commission” announced on the official website the “Guidance Opinions on Promoting the Rational Development and Construction of the Areas Surrounding the High-speed Rail Station” issued jointly by the four departments, which means that the state has taken a major step in the “High-speed Rail New City” policy. Variety.

The four departments jointly issuing documents are the National Development and Reform Commission, the Department of Natural Resources (formerly the Department of the Ministry of Land and Resources, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the China Railway Corporation).

China is the first country in the world to industrialize high-speed rail and build a complete "high-speed rail network." At present, China's high-speed rail traffic mileage exceeds 25,000 kilometers, accounting for 60% of the world's total.

China not only industrialized the high-speed rail, led the development of the upstream and downstream industries, but also used the high-speed rail as an important means to promote urbanization.

Local governments generally plan high-speed railway stations in the suburbs and new districts, and plan high-speed rail new cities around high-speed railway stations. They hope that the rapid expansion of the city will be achieved through the “high-speed rail new town”. In this model, high-speed rail stations often play the “magic bar” role of “raising the land value of the suburbs,” and they turn gold into gold to make local finances pay off.

However, not all the “high-speed rail new towns” have become successful. Some cities with relatively small population increments and weak population competitiveness have long been deprived of popularity in their high-speed rail new towns, which ultimately not only wastes land but also makes high-speed rail stations inefficient. In order to take a high-speed train, local residents often struggle to make ends meet.

In November 2015, "21st Century Business Herald" published "High-speed Rail New City Survey: Trend or Pitfall?" According to the report, it was reported that at that time, over 70 high-speed rail new cities had been planned and constructed in the country. With the construction of the "eight horizontal and eight vertical" high-speed rail network, there will be more small and medium-sized cities to open high-speed rail in the future. If the model continues, it will inevitably cause huge waste of cultivated land and make the financial situation of more small and medium-sized cities in trouble.

The reason is simple: China's urbanization path has undergone tremendous changes. In the past, urbanization had blossomed, and all county, prefecture-level cities, and capital cities (municipalities and single-listed cities) were able to obtain demographic dividends. Today, urbanization is becoming "big urbanization" and "mass urbanization." The attractiveness of ordinary small and medium-sized cities is declining. The construction of a “high-speed railway new town” in the suburbs must be changed!

In the newly released "Guidance", the following is worth noting:

1. We must do what we can, develop in an orderly and orderly manner, and prevent the blind pursuit of scale and swiftness.

2. Avoid homogenization of industrial layout along the high-speed railway and development of a single real estate function.

3. Newly-built railway line should minimize the segmentation of the city. The new station should be located in the central urban area or close to the built-up area of ​​the city as much as possible to ensure the convenience of people's high-speed rail travel. The construction of high-speed rail stations should be appropriate and economical, and should not be greedy for foreign affairs and pursue luxury.

4, resolutely prevent and control the tendency of simple real estate.

5. The development of high-end service industries, trade logistics, business conventions and exhibitions and other industrial functions can be developed in the surrounding areas of high-speed railway stations in large cities. High-speed rail stations in small and medium-sized cities should rationally distribute peripheral industries and securely develop industrial functions such as commercial retail, hotels, and catering. Avoid disorderly competition and mutual restraint between adjacent sites along the line.

6. Do what you can and do your best. It is forbidden to blindly engage in urban expansion in the name of development and construction around the high-speed railway station. In the early stage of a big city, we should focus on the development of areas within 2 km of the newly built high-speed rail stations. We can appropriately control the reserved long-term development space and avoid stalls that are too large and inefficiently developed. Small and medium-sized cities should not overestimate the use of high-speed rails, avoid copying the development experience of big cities, and create unique features to blindly build cities. For the newly-built railway stations and stations to implement comprehensive land development, the boundary and scale requirements for comprehensive land development shall be strictly enforced. After deducting land for station sites, the total amount of comprehensive development land for the same railway construction project shall be controlled according to the average size of individual stations not exceeding 50 hectares. The number of comprehensive development sites for a small number of stations does not exceed 100 hectares.

7. Fully understand the importance and urgency of preventing and resolving the debt risk of local governments, firmly guarding the bottom line where systemic financial risks do not occur, and effectively guarding against local government debt risks arising from the development and construction of high-speed railway stations. We must prevent the actual development of financial resources from leaving the local government.

8. The competent authorities for urban and rural construction of natural resources and housing must strictly manage the development and construction of high-speed railway stations in accordance with relevant regulations, organize timely assessments, strictly control the scale and timing of construction, strengthen monitoring of land use, and severely investigate and punish violations of laws and regulations on land use and construction activities. , And further improve the real estate market supervision and management.

Above: As early as 2014, the media began to reflect on the high-speed rail New City model.

It can thus be seen that the "guidance" is hard-binding, and the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will be involved in the planning and supervision of the HSR station. For small and medium-sized cities, the newly established high-speed rail station should be "as far as possible in the central urban area or close to the urban built-up area", and it is necessary to control the scale and control the development of real estate.

This means that some unrealistic sites planned by the city may have undergone major changes. Once the planning changes, it means that the “say a good high-speed rail station” has been removed, and the land price and house prices in the corresponding areas will likely be plummeted!

Which cities are the most dangerous? Of course, it is a city with a low level, a weak economy, a poor finance, a small population, and a slow growth. It is mainly prefecture-level cities, counties, cities and counties in the central and western regions. Of course, the premise is that the high-speed rail station has not yet started construction and is planned to be far from downtown. If you are preparing to buy a house in the above area, be careful.

Why do I always advise you to buy a house (mainly a house) with a "high-level city with significant population growth?" From the high-speed rail case, everyone can realize it.

In China, resources, population, and opportunity all follow power. High-ranking cities will always be cheap. Some time ago, media reports said that the NDRC has tightened the approval of the new subway line, and cities with a permanent population of less than 3 million will stop building new subway lines. This time it has tightened the planning and construction of the high-speed rail station. From this point of view, the Central Government’s train of thought is of the same origin: Pursuit of high-quality economic development has made infrastructure more efficient and avoid the risk of bankruptcy by local governments.

For ordinary small and medium-sized cities, not only the opportunities are reduced, but the chances of achieving the original “tall” plans can be reduced. Large cities can prevent the solidification of interests within cities by developing new districts; small and medium-sized cities will gradually lose this opportunity. In other words: In big cities, there are more opportunities to buy houses in the new district; in small and medium-sized cities, it is more risky to buy houses in the new district. The root of this decision is the opportunity and attraction of the city.

I hope readers can understand the major trend of China’s urbanization from the new regulations for subways and high-speed rails that have been introduced this year. Do not let your investment be inefficient, or behave badly.

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