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Government land sales revenue soared 83.4%! These cities are quietly rising

Time: 2018-05-07         Source: Phoenix Real Estate Complex         Author: Phoenix Comprehensive Real Estate

Transfer from: Phoenix Net Real Estate Source: Ye Tan Finance, Long Hao Hu Wei, Securities Times

  1 Government land sales revenue soared 83.4%!

It is the old saying of the article of the day before yesterday, saying no, the body is very honest (poke me back: house prices plummeted 16 yuan! Is the distortion of house prices really controlled?). All localities have said that they must control housing prices, regulate the property market, and turn around and rely on land sales to supplement their finances.

On May 2, the latest statistics released by the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center showed that in April, the land revenue of the top 50 cities nationwide was 284.22 billion, up 83.4% year-on-year. From January to April, the total amount of land transfer fees in 50 cities reached 1,188.2 billion, an increase of 48.8% over the same period in 2017.

Among them, the land income of 7 cities including Hangzhou, Ningbo, Guangzhou, Nantong, Tianjin, Yangzhou and Chengdu exceeded 10 billion. Hangzhou is fiercely winning, with a monthly land income of 17.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 237%.

In 2018, there has been a very obvious upward trend in the land transfer fees for hot cities.

  109 measures for the property market in 2 years!

At the same time, the property market regulation has not relaxed. According to incomplete statistics, since the beginning of this year, the number of real estate control policies issued throughout the country has reached 109 times, including Hangzhou, Changchun, Shenyang, Xi'an and other cities with the highest price increases in the previous period. In the case of skyrocketing land transfer fees, it is conceivable that local housing prices have not been held down.

More importantly, the financial pressure of various real estate enterprises is increasing. Accelerating the return of funds and the digesting speed of real estate have become the life gates of major housing enterprises. This has directly led to a decline in house inventory and an imbalance between supply and demand.

According to the data of a real estate agency, from the perspective of the digestion cycle, only five cities such as Dalian, Qingdao and Chengdu have declined, and the cycle of commercial housing in other key cities has continued to lengthen, especially in Beijing and Shenzhen, which has been over 29 months; Dalian, Xiamen, The market in Wuxi and Shenyang continued to have a digestive cycle of more than 20 months. The digestion cycle in Chongqing, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Xuzhou and Haikou is still less than 5 months, and the inventory of more than 1/4 cities has increased by about 30% year-on-year. Nearly half of the cities have a digestion cycle of more than 15 months.

  Take Xi'an as an example

In 2011-2016, Xi'an's house prices have been tepid. Until this year, Xi'an has relaxed restrictions on settlements for three consecutive times. As of mid-April, the number of people in Xi'an has reached 300,000, a sharp increase of more than ten times compared with the same period in 2017. "One room is hard to find", "full payment" and "bundled sales" have become hot words in the property market. Among them, the opening of a real estate in Xi'an Development Zone has staged a storm of thousands of people robbing the house. The surge in prices has also led to the phenomenon of “house shortage”.

At the same time, hot cities such as Chongqing, Wuhan and Hangzhou are also stepping up their rush to enjoy the dividends of the new population. The de-chemical cycle is generally low, housing prices have risen sharply, and the days have been quite good.

 3 Some cities have seen a big rise in house prices! Some are the opposite...

As mentioned above, housing prices in some cities are rising, but from a national perspective, the golden age of real estate has passed, and the overall surge will not occur again. In some cities, housing prices have fallen sharply, and “differentiation” will become the future property market. The main theme.

Among the hotspot cities, Beijing, Shanghai and other cities have followed the policy of “leading talents”, but the conditions of Beijing’s monthly salary of 70,000 to settle down are not robbing people, more like the policy of catching people, coupled with extremely strict purchase restrictions. Therefore, the price of second-hand housing in Beijing has fallen by 18.2% from the high point of April last year.

Beijing's housing prices are still resilience, but the Beijing government is not so lucky without the rush to buy.

According to the statistics of China Merchants Bank, with May 2017 as the benchmark period (Xiong is set up in April), house price fluctuations will be calculated by March 2018. The top ten cities include Langfang, Zhangzhou, Beijing, Shijiazhuang and Shizuishan. Wuzhong, Guyuan, Fuzhou, Wenzhou and Zhuhai, the Beijing-based property market accounts for a large part.

Specifically, before the introduction of the Beijing 317 policy, the price of some areas in Yanjiao rose to over 40,000/m2, and the purchase limit was released. The price dropped more than 10,000/m2, and then fell closer to the waist. If you stand for 3 million to buy a set of Yanjiao, the minimum 30% down payment is 900,000. In March 2018, the house is worth 2.23 million.

On the other hand, in 2015-2017, the land premium rate in China's hot cities is usually around 30%, but in April this year, the land premium rate fell to 10%. That is to say, in addition to the above-mentioned cities that are affected by dividends such as “population” and “shed reform”, the property market in China's more vast areas is cooling down.

The land supply will skyrocket, and there will be more real estates listed in the future; the land premium rate will be lower, the real estate market will be less competitive, and the real estate market will be cold. Therefore, the future "regulation" and "grabbing" of the property market have become the core of the trend of housing prices.

Finally, please remember that this is the best era and the worst era. Some people go straight to heaven, some people go against it, don’t be a black-and-white coward in the property market, and see buyers who are blindly entering the market with high prices. There are also people who take the wrong car.

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