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Government land sales soared 83.4%! These cities are quietly rising

Time: 2018-05-07         Source: Phoenix Web Property         Author: Phoenix Comprehensive Real Estate

Transfer from: Fenghuangwang Real Estate Source: Ye Tanjing, Long Haohu, Securities Times

  1 Government land sales soared 83.4%!

Is the old story of the day before yesterday, saying no, his body is very honest (Poke me back: house prices plunged 16 yuan! Distorted house prices really managed to control it?). All localities have said that they must control house prices and control the property market, and turn to rely on land sales to supplement finances.

On May 2, the latest statistics released by the Centaline Property Research Center showed that in April, the land revenue of the 50 largest cities across the country was 284.22 billion yuan, up 83.4% year-on-year. From January to April, the total amount of land transfer fees in 50 cities reached 1,1288.2 million yuan, up 48.8% from the 798.4 billion in the same period in 2017.

Among them, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Guangzhou, Nantong, Tianjin, Yangzhou, Chengdu and other seven cities have more than 10 billion in land revenue. Hangzhou was even more ferocious and claimed land revenue of 17.9 billion yuan in a single month, up 237% year-on-year.

In 2018, there has been a very significant upward trend in land transfer payments for hot cities.

  The property market controls 109 times in 2 years!

At the same time, the regulation of the property market did not relax. According to incomplete statistics, since the beginning of this year, real estate control policies issued throughout the country have reached as many as 109 times, including cities such as Hangzhou, Changchun, Shenyang, and Xi'an where prices have risen in the previous period. With the skyrocketing land transfer money, it is conceivable that the local housing prices have not been held down.

What is more important is that the capital pressures of various housing enterprises are increasing. Accelerating the withdrawal of funds and real estate digestion have become the lifeblood of major housing companies. This has led to a decline in house inventory and an increase in imbalance between supply and demand.

According to data from a real estate agency, only five cities, including Dalian, Qingdao, and Chengdu, have fallen from the digestive cycle. The cycle of democratization of commodity housing in other key cities continued to increase, especially in Beijing and Shenzhen, which rose by more than 29 months; Dalian, Xiamen, The digestive cycle in Wuxi, Shenyang and other cities continued to exceed 20 months this month. The digestive cycle in Chongqing, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Xuzhou, and Haikou is still less than 5 months, with over a quarter of the city's inventory increasing by about 30% year-on-year, and nearly half of the cities having a digestion cycle exceeding 15 months.

  Take Xi'an as an

In 2011-2016, house prices in Xi’an have been tepid. Until this year, Xi’an relaxed its restrictions for three consecutive visits. As of mid-April, Xi’an’s population reached 300,000, which has soared by more than ten times compared to the same period in 2017. , "a hard to find a room," "full payment," "bundle sales" and other hot words for the property market. Among them, the opening of a real estate development site in Xi'an Development Zone, staged a storm of 1,000 people. Rising prices have also led to the emergence of "house shortage."

At the same time, Chongqing, Wuhan, Hangzhou and other hot-spot cities are stepping up their efforts to enjoy the dividends of the newcomer population, with a generally low period of de-escalation, sharp rises in house prices, and fairly good days.

 3 Prices in some cities have skyrocketed! Some are the opposite...

As mentioned above, housing prices are rising in some cities. However, from the national point of view, the golden age of real estate has passed. Full-scale upswing will no longer occur. Housing prices in some cities will fall sharply, and “divergence” will become the property market in the future. The main theme.

In hotspot cities, cities like Beijing and Shanghai have followed up the “leadership” policy, but the conditions like Beijing’s monthly salary of RMB 70,000 cannot be settled. They are more like people rushing policies, coupled with extremely harsh restrictions on purchases. Therefore, the price of second-hand housing in Beijing has fallen by 18.2% from the peak of April last year.

Beijing's housing prices are still defensive, but Beijing has not been so lucky to rush to buy instead of Beijing.

According to the statistics of China Appraisal and the Bank of the United States, with May 2017 as the benchmark period (Xiong established in April), house price fluctuations were calculated as of March 2018, and the top 10 cities included Langfang, Luzhou, Beijing, Shijiazhuang and Shizuishan. Wuzhong, Guyuan, Fuzhou, Wenzhou, and Zhuhai, the Beijing-based property market accounted for a large part.

Specifically, before the introduction of the Beijing 317 policy, prices in some parts of Yanjiao increased to more than 40,000/sqm, and purchase restrictions were introduced. The price of houses jumped more than 10,000/sqm, and then fell all the way to the waist. If you stand at a high price of 3 million to buy a Yanjiao room, the lowest 30% down payment is 900,000, and in March 2018 this house will be worth 2.2,300,000, and a set of down payment will all be played.

On the other hand, in 2015-2017, the land premium rate in China's hot cities is usually around 30%, but in April this year, the land premium rate has dropped to 10%. In other words, in addition to the above-mentioned cities such as “population” and “shed change”, the property market in China’s more spacious areas is cooling down.

The land supply skyrocketed and there will be more real estate listings in the future. The land premium rate will be lower, the housing companies will have less competition and the real estate market will be cold. Therefore, the future property market "regulation" and "rushing people" has become the core of housing prices.

Finally, keep in mind that this is the best time and the worst time. Some people go straight to heaven. Some people go in the opposite direction. Don't do black and white cowards in the property market. See buyers who blindly enter the market with high prices. There are also wrong riders.

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