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The property market is rising. Who is living for you?

Time: 2018-05-07         Source: Cat Tert House         Author: a little house cat t

01

Natural beauty and artificial beauty

The rise in house prices comes at a price.

Beauty is also costly.

There are two kinds of beauty, one is natural beauty. The resources are unique. Even if you don't use makeup or expensive skin care products, you can maintain a good face. This kind of beauty, the pursuit of rush, can not catch up.

There is also an artificial beauty. What is the aesthetic standard of the outside world? After all, most men are visual animals. You don't have to move a knife on your face. Just look long.

Therefore, the artificial beauty is well-made and there are also many suitors.

Unlike natural beauty, man-made women need more funds and manual measures to help them. They have to go to the hospital for regular checkups and care to maintain the stability of their facial values.

North deep is a natural beauty, and no one does not like it. These cities have a unique economic foundation, considerable political resources, and a broad career development platform. Therefore, even if the north is deeply regulated, house prices have fallen, but the congenital conditions are still there, and it still maintains an attractive appeal to the entire population.

If the North goes deeper to further absorb national resources, the gap between rich and poor will inevitably increase. It will become bloated and deep in the north, and the urban economy that has been absorbed will be even weaker. This is not what the incumbent wants to see.

At this time, some cities that are basically not deep in the north, like the artificial beauty, need a strong external force to intervene. “Knife moves” to improve the appearance of the city, the introduction of excellent settlement benefits, and attract more people to life and employment.

02

The involvement of visible hands

Some people say that the market will be solved by the market. That may not be too confident in the market. The core of the market is competition. Competition will rationally allocate resources and optimize the mix, but it will also bring about polarization, malformed structure, and even crisis turmoil.

When the market fails, it needs the government’s visible hands to intervene.

Today, the influx of people in the first-tier cities is influx, and the growth rate of the second-line population has continued to slow down. The form is severe.

With the following data, let us take a look at the severity of the slowdown in the second-line population growth:

The second-tier cities have seen a significant decline in the growth rate of the resident population after 2010, of which, during the five years of Nanjing's 2011-2016 period, the growth rate of the permanent population has been less than 1%;

Qingdao’s population growth in 2017 is already below 100,000, close to the natural growth rate of the population;

The incremental population of Zhengzhou, Chengdu, Wuhan is also small, less than 200,000 people;

Changsha, Zhengzhou, Chengdu, and Wuhan have a gap of nearly 2 million people from their respective planned population size by 2020...

Considering the medium and long-term planning of local governments,

Without new population, there will be no significance for the expansion of subways and roads;

Without new population, how will the industry in the New District New Town develop?

Without new population, aging will gradually erode the city's competitiveness;

Without new population, urban construction land cannot be added, land can not be sold, and there can be no funds for large-scale public infrastructure construction, and cities cannot develop...

The population is the greatest potential productivity. It is the pen for the development of second-tier cities. Looking at the growth rate of the resident population in these cities, the goal is to achieve a long way to go without the introduction of a new settlement policy.

Second-tier cities, like man-made women, have poor natural conditions and must make artificial changes. This kind of change that is eager for success results in costs, risks, but also opportunities.

03

The cost of grabbing people

Before that, there was an article: Chinese cities are about to usher in the second wave of rise! In the future, the increase in these cities will be higher than the front line!

In fact, the main basis is the research on the way to achieve a balanced development of China's regional top-level design.

One of these initiatives is the New Deal for Talent.

In March 2016, the CPC Central Committee issued the "Opinions on Deepening the Reform of the Institutional Mechanism for the Development of Talented Personnel." Subsequently, various localities have introduced new policies for talents and implemented priority strategies for talent development. In 2017, second-tier cities such as Zhengzhou, Changsha, Wuhan, Xi’an and Nanjing successively lowered the threshold.

On the face of it, these cities encourage more talents to settle down and it is indeed a matter of course.

However, at the same time, these hot cities are facing strict restrictions on the purchase and control of the loan market.

On the one hand, it is forbidden for foreigners to buy a house. On the one hand, they are encouraged to settle outside.

This ... is a bit embarrassing.

I seem to know what to do.

Taking Nanjing as an example, Nanjing has always been a city where land transfer fees account for a relatively high total fiscal revenue.

In 2016, Nanjing's total fiscal revenue was 266.51 billion yuan, and the real estate industry's tax revenue was approximately RMB 54.353 billion, accounting for 20.36% of the total fiscal revenue, of which land transfer revenue accounted for 33.19% of total fiscal revenue, and the real estate industry's taxes and fees accounted for the total fiscal revenue. 53.55% of income. (In general, the real estate industry's taxes and fees accounted for more than 40% even higher)

Originally, house prices in Nanjing rose rapidly in 2017. After the regulation, they should be turned off. However, in 2018, Nanjing fired the first shot of “talent settlement” and took the lead in proposing a policy for the settlement of undergraduates under the age of 45. This allows Nanjing's housing prices to pick up again.

Look at Chengdu again. In March 2017, Chengdu's housing prices began to purchase, which had a downward trend, but there was a pick-up in August. What happened during this period? In July, Chengdu set aside restrictions on full-time undergraduates and skilled personnel.

Look at Xi'an. In 17 years, I predicted that Xi'an should be extinguished in 18 years. The timing of the pre-judgment is too early because I overlooked the strong role of the Xi'an settlement policy. Last year, 257,000 people settled in Xi'an. This year, Xi'an settled in the first quarter to 240,000. More people. This figure can explain why Xi’an’s new home market has been so hot since March.

The same can not be ignored, there is gradually rising in Chongqing market. After all, the settlement of the New Deal in Chongqing can also be a drag.

Also in Zhengzhou, Zhengzhou, the sales of commercial housing in the first quarter of 2018 was 2,375,300 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%.

There is also Changsha, Changsha in the first quarter of 2018 real estate sales of 2,916,600 square meters, an increase of 28.5%.

The upcoming implementation of this is Qingdao.

04

The power of awakening

The second-line property market is actually a man-made beauty, which has driven home prices to rise through artificial power.

“Limiting purchase limit loans – lowering the threshold of entry – importing population – expanding potential buyers – driving property sales – restricting sales” has become a very skilled routine.

Once the efforts to settle down have been weakened, the second-line property market has also experienced the unstable "face collapse" phenomenon just like the value of artificial beauty.

Some people say that if it is so radically settled, isn't it afraid to push up prices?

I would like to ask: Under the general goal of balanced regional development and common prosperity, does the policy level really prohibit the rise in housing prices in second-tier cities?

The policy level is concerned about the excessive rise of housing prices. The real concern is the financial risks caused by the rapid increase in housing prices. If financial risk is the first priority, and it seems to be controllable (restricted sale guarantees the long-term purchase of home buyers, cancel speculation), then a modest increase in housing prices will inevitably not cause too many problems, but also be tolerated.

If you want to establish a long-term foothold in this city, the first thing to do is to buy a house. Local indigenous people, who have used the property market that has not risen for many years, suddenly rose and there were so many foreign “trespassers” who grabbed the house. Then he no longer eats hotpots, plays mahjong, sings KTV, and his enthusiasm for buying houses is also high. Was driven up.

This is the power of awakening. Awakening is irreversible.

If you can't read the full text, then a straightforward view is:

The flames of the property market in second-tier cities will burn longer and longer.

I do not intend to sing a multi-city market. I just state the facts.

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