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The rising property market, who is dying for you?

Time: 2018-05-07         Source: Cat Uncle is a little house         Author: a little house cat t

01

Natural beauty and artificial beauty

There is a price to pay for house prices.

Beauty also comes at a price.

There are two kinds of beauty, one is natural beauty. The resources are unique. Even if you don't wear makeup or use expensive skin care products, you can maintain a good face. Such a beautiful woman, the pursuer is eager to catch up.

There is also an artificial beauty. What is the aesthetic standard of the outside world? After all, most men are visual animals, and you can't move your knife on your face, as long as you look good.

Therefore, the artificial beauty is good, and there are many pursuers.

Unlike natural beauty, artificial beauty needs more funds and manual measures to help. They have to go to the hospital for regular inspection and care to maintain the stability of their values.

The north is deep and natural beauty, no one does not like it. These cities have a strong economic base, considerable political resources, and a broad career development platform. Therefore, even if the north is deep, the house prices will fall, but the innate conditions are there, and it still maintains sufficient appeal to the national population.

If the North and the West further absorb the national resources, the gap between the rich and the poor will inevitably widen. The north will also become bloated, and the absorbed urban economy will be even weaker. This is not the picture that the politicians want to see.

At this time, some cities that do not have a deep north, like artificial beauty, need strong external intervention. "Moving the knife" to improve the appearance of the city, the introduction of excellent settlement benefits, attract more people to live and work.

02

Tangible hand intervention

Some people say that the market is going to let the market solve it. That may not be too convinced of the market. The core of the market is competition. Competition will rationally allocate resources and optimize portfolios, but it will also bring about polarization, deformed structures, and even crisis turmoil.

When the market fails, the government's visible hand needs to intervene.

Nowadays, the population of first-tier cities is influx, and the growth rate of the second-line population is slowing down, and the form is severe.

List the following data, let us see the severity of the slowdown in second-line population growth:

The growth rate of permanent residents in second-tier cities has declined significantly since 2010, and in the five years from Nanjing in 2011-2016, the growth rate of permanent residents was less than 1%;

Qingdao’s population growth in 2017 has fallen below 100,000, close to the natural growth rate of the population;

The incremental population of Zhengzhou, Chengdu and Wuhan is not much, less than 200,000 people;

Changsha, Zhengzhou, Chengdu, and Wuhan have a gap of nearly 2 million people from their planned population in 2020...

Considering the medium- and long-term planning of local governments,

Without new population, the expansion of the subway and the road will be meaningless;

How to develop the industry of the new district new city without new population?

Without new population, aging will gradually erode the city's competitiveness;

Without new population, it is impossible to add urban construction land, and it is impossible to sell land. It is also impossible to have funds for large-scale public infrastructure construction, and the city will not be able to develop...

Population is the greatest potential productivity. It is the pen of the development of second-tier cities. In view of the growth rate of the resident population of these cities, if the new settlement policy is not introduced, the goal will be a long way to go.

Second-tier cities, like man-made beauty, must be artificially changed if they are in poor condition. This kind of change that is eager to achieve has a price, a risk, but also an opportunity.

03

The cost of robbing people

Before, there was an article: Chinese cities are about to usher in the second wave of rise! In the future, these cities will rise more than the first line!

In fact, the main basis is the study of the way the top-level design implements the path of balanced development in China.

One of the initiatives is the new talent policy.

In March 2016, the CPC Central Committee issued the "Opinions on Deepening the Reform of the System and Mechanism of Talent Development". Subsequently, various localities introduced new policies for talent development and implemented the priority strategy for talent development. In 2017, second-tier cities such as Zhengzhou, Changsha, Wuhan, Xi'an and Nanjing successively lowered the threshold for settlement.

On the surface, it seems that these cities encourage more talents to settle down.

But at the same time, these hot cities are facing strict restrictions on the regulation of the property market.

On the one hand, it is strictly forbidden for foreigners to buy houses. On the other hand, foreigners are encouraged to settle down.

This... is a bit embarrassing.

I seem to know something that I can't do.

Take Nanjing as an example. Nanjing has always been a city where land transfer fees account for a relatively high total fiscal revenue.

In 2016, the total financial revenue of Nanjing City was 266.51 billion yuan, and the tax revenue of the real estate industry was about 54.353 billion yuan, accounting for 20.36% of the total fiscal revenue. The land sales revenue accounted for 33.19% of the total fiscal revenue, and the real estate industry tax and fees accounted for the total fiscal revenue. 53.55% of income. (In general, real estate industry taxes and fees account for more than 40% of the total)

Originally, house prices in Nanjing increased rapidly in 2017, and they must be turned off after regulation. However, in 2018, Nanjing started the first shot of “Talent Settlement” and took the lead in proposing policies for undergraduates under 45 years of age. This makes Nanjing's housing prices pick up again.

Look at Chengdu again. In March 2017, Chengdu's house prices began to be limited, and there was a tendency to fall back, but it rebounded in August. What happened during the period? In July, Chengdu released the restrictions on the placement of full-time undergraduate graduates and skilled talents.

Look at Xi'an again. In 17 years, I predicted that Xi'an should be turned off in 18 years. The time of the pre-judgment is too early, because I have neglected the powerful role of the Xi'an settlement policy. Last year, 257,000 people settled in Xi'an. This year, Xi'an settled in 240,000 in the first quarter. The rest of the people. This figure can explain why the new housing market in Xi'an since March has been so hot.

Also unavoidable is the gradual rise of the Chongqing market. After all, Chongqing’s settled in the New Deal can also be a drag on the door.

Zhengzhou, Zhengzhou, the sales of commercial housing in the first quarter of 2018 was 2,375,300 square meters, an increase of 11.1%.

In Changsha, Changsha’s sales of commercial housing in the first quarter of 2018 was 2,991,600 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%.

Qingdao will be implemented soon.

04

Awakening power

The second-tier property market is actually an artificial beauty, which drives up house prices through artificial power.

“Limited purchase limit – lowering the threshold for settlement – ​​importing population – expanding potential buyers – driving real estate sales – limited sales” has become a very skilled routine.

Once the strength of the settlement is weakened, the second-line property market is also the same as the artificial beauty, and there is an unstable "face collapse" phenomenon.

Some people say that such a radical settlement policy is not afraid to push up housing prices?

I would like to ask: Under the big goal of balanced regional development and common prosperity, does the policy level really not allow housing prices in second-tier cities to rise?

At the policy level, it is worried that housing prices will rise too fast. The real concern is the financial risks brought about by the rapid rise in housing prices. If financial risk is the first precautionary task, and it seems to be controllable at present (limited sales guarantees the long-term holding of buyers and the elimination of speculation), then a moderate increase in housing prices will inevitably cause too much problems and is tolerated.

If the foreign settled group wants to stand in the city for a long time, the first thing he has to do is to buy a house. The local indigenous people, used to the property market that has not risen for many years, suddenly rose up, and there are so many foreign "invaders" to grab the house, then he no longer eat hot pot, play mahjong, sing KTV, his enthusiasm for buying a house, Was driven.

This is the power of awakening, and awakening is irreversible.

If you don't understand the full text, then a straightforward view is:

The property market flame in second-tier cities will burn longer and longer.

I have no intention of singing more than one property market, I am only stating the facts.

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