Near the Spring Festival, the continuous correction of A-shares has caused investors to be in a downturn, and holding shares or holding money has become a problem. At present, many institutions are still optimistic about the value of A-share allocation, and believe that the stock market has a high probability of rising before and after the Spring Festival. However, considering that the recent market crash has highlighted the risk of stock pledge, investors should evade the pledge of equity pledges.
Achieving a positive probability of return after the holiday
Guotai JunanFrom the experience of the past 10 years, it has been found that “holding a Chinese New Year” has a higher winning percentage.According to the historical performance of the Wande All A Index since the Spring Festival in 2008, the probability of positive gains from the index began to increase from the first 10 natural days before the Spring Festival, and the probability of obtaining positive returns on the 30 natural days after the festival was maintained at 70%. Above, the probability of positive returns on the 15th day after the festival is up to 90%. It is worth noting that historically, there were very few negative returns on the 15th day before the festival, but in the case of negative returns, the positive gains were achieved on the 15th after the holiday.
Guotai Junan believes thatThe industries with high probability of excess returns after the Spring Festival are mainly divided into two categories: consumption (and its midstream materials industry), and cyclical industries.. "Consumption, pay attention to the upgrading of mass consumer goods brought about by rising wages under the main line of inflation, recommend dairy products, condiments and foods, and corresponding supermarkets and department stores; the right side of the cycle sector is the main opportunity, and then look at credit data and economic data. The verification, after the release of the annual report, the balance sheet's drag on the income statement has further weakened, recommending coal, cement, glass and steel."
Zhongtai Securities pointed out that from the performance of the market before and after the Spring Festival,The stock market's rising probability before and after the Spring Festival is between 80% and 90%, with an average increase of around 2%-3%.. Similar to the current stage, around 2 weeks before the Spring Festival, the probability of a week's rise is low, and the average rise and fall is around -1%. In terms of style index, the probability and increase of large-cap stocks and mid-cap stocks were higher than those of small-cap stocks in the first five trading days before the holiday. In the five trading days after the holiday, small-cap stocks dominated.
In terms of industry index, Zhongtai Securities believes that the average increase before the holiday is in nonferrous metals, automobiles, steel, non-silver and other industries. The probability of rising financial and cyclical sectors is relatively high; the average increase after the holiday is agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. In the comprehensive, electronic, light industry manufacturing, textile and apparel industries, the rising probability of the consumer industry is relatively high.
It is worth mentioning that, according to good fund statistics, last week, the partial stock fund increased slightly by 1.74%, and the current position was 62.62%. Among them, the stock fund position increased by 0.98%, the standard hybrid fund increased by 1.82%, and the current positions were 89.72% and 59.66% respectively. At present, the positions of public offerings of partial stock funds are generally at a high level in history.
Avoiding pledges and accounting for large stocks
Recently, a number of listed companies issued an announcement, temporarily suspended due to the risk of liquidation of the relevant shareholder pledge. For example, on February 7, Zhongjing Electronics announced that due to the large decline in the company's stock for three consecutive days, the cumulative decline was 24.51%. Some of the shares pledged by the company’s controlling share, Tokyo Port Investment, have reached or are about to reach the liquidation line and there may be a risk of liquidation. Upon application, the company's stock has been suspended since the market opened on February 8. It is expected that the suspension will not exceed 5 trading days.
The risk of liquidation of a listed company's stock pledge is not a case. Tianfeng Securities said in the latest research report that the number of pledges that broke through the warning line in the market has risen rapidly, and the risk of closing the equity pledge has increased. "In China's entire equity pledge market, 150%-160% is generally set as the warning line for equity pledge, and 120%-130% is the closing line. Therefore, in order to observe the equity pledge financing of the mechanical sector shareholders, we select 160% as a warning line and 130% as a liquidation line. Under this assumption, in 2016, only 6 equity pledge financing broke through the warning line, accounting for 1.3% of the total amount of unplied equity pledge financing; One equity pledge financing broke through the liquidation line, accounting for 0.2% of the total unpurchased equity pledge financing."
In contrast, the current situation of listed companies' equity pledge financing is not optimistic. For example, in the mechanical equipment sector, Tianfeng Securities found that a total of 188 equity pledge financing broke through the warning line, accounting for 20.5% of the total amount of unsolved equity pledge financing, up 19.3 percentage points year-on-year; 53 transactions broke through the liquidation line, accounting for The total number of unplied equity pledge financing was 5.8%, up 5.6% year-on-year, and the risk of equity pledge liquidation increased.
In the eyes of the industry, the reduction of new regulations slows the liquidation of the funder. “The restricted shares in the market value of equity pledge accounted for 23%, mainly for the pledge of major shareholders. When the stock price is close to the warning line, the pledgee can obtain liquidity by increasing collateral (stock, cash or real estate). The risk mainly occurs in the pledge rate. According to statistics, there are only 71 stocks with a pledge rate exceeding 40%. If the funder needs to close the position, he still has to comply with the new rules of reduction, that is, "to reduce the total share capital by 1% through the auction transaction within 90 days" and The rules for large-traded stocks that cannot be reduced within six months.” Gao Ting, China’s chief strategist at UBS Securities, advised investors to choose to evade pledges, which are relatively large. “We expect that if investors hold stock pledges If the rate is higher, it may be more inclined to lighten up the position to avoid the continuous selling pressure of the pledge of the stock pledge after the stock price breaks through the liquidation line. The systemic risk of the stock pledge closing is not high, but the equity has penetrated the pledge flat line. And if the single pledge is less than 5% of the share capital, it may face the risk of being forced to pledge the capital."
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