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Spring Festival holding or holding money? Great falls, risks and opportunities coexist

Edit: Lisa Source: Shanghai Financial News Date: 2018-02-13

Summary:

From the experience of the past 10 years, it has been found that the "New Year with Holding Shares" has a higher winning percentage.

As the Spring Festival approached, the continuous correction of A-shares led to the depression of investors and the holding of stocks or holding coins became a challenge. At present, many agencies are still optimistic about the allocation of A shares, that the stock market around the Spring Festival is likely to rise. However, taking into account the recent market crash so that the risk of stock pledging highlights, investors should circumvent the pledge of shares larger stocks.

  After the holiday is positive probability of gain

Guotai JunanFrom the experience of the past 10 years, it has been found that the "New Year with Holding Shares" has a higher winning percentage.According to the historical performance of the All-Access A-Index since the Spring Festival in 2008, the probability of a positive return to the Index begins to increase from the 10 natural days preceding the Spring Festival, and the positive returns to the 30 natural days remain below 70% Above, 15 days after the holiday is the highest probability of return of 90%. It is noteworthy that historically there were few negative returns in the 15 days prior to the holiday, but with negative returns, significant positive returns were achieved on the 15th.

Guotai Junan believes that,The industries with high probability of getting excess returns after the Spring Festival are mainly divided into two categories: consumption (and its midstream materials industry), cyclical industry. Consumption, concerned about the rise in the inflation under the main line of mass consumer goods upgrade, recommended dairy products, condiments and food, and the corresponding supermarkets, department stores; cyclical section of the right opportunity to the back, look at the credit data and economic data Of the verification, the balance sheet after the publication of the superposition of the annual report further weakened the income statement, recommended coal, cement, glass and steel.

Zhongtai Securities pointed out that from the calendar year after the Spring Festival performance of the market,Before and after the Spring Festival stock market rising probability of 80% -90%, with an average increase of 2% -3%. Similar to the current stage, about 2 weeks before the Spring Festival, the probability of a rise in the week is lower, with an average change of -1% or so. Style index, the first 5 trading days before the holiday, large cap stocks and mid-cap stocks rose higher than the probability and the gains were small cap stocks, 5 trading days after the holiday, small cap stocks dominated.

In terms of industry indices, Zhongtai Securities believes that the average increase before the holiday is nonferrous metals, automobile, steel, non-silver and other industries, the probability of the financial sector and the cyclical sector is relatively high; the average increase after the holiday is that of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, Integrated, electronics, light manufacturing, textile and garment, the rising probability of the consumer industry is relatively high.

It is worth mentioning that, according to a good buy fund statistics, partial shares last week, the overall slight increase of 1.74% open positions, the current position 62.62%. Among them, the stock fund positions rose 0.98%, the standard hybrid funds rose 1.82%, the current positions were 89.72% and 59.66% respectively. At present, the overall share offering partial stock fund positions in the history of the highest level.

 Avoid pledging a larger share

Recently, a number of listed companies issued a public announcement, due to the shares of shareholders pledged facing the risk of liquidation temporarily suspended. As of February 7, the Beijing-based electronic bulletin said that the company's stock dropped significantly for a third straight day on the 3rd with a total decrease of 24.51%. Some shares pledged by the Company's controlling shareholder, Jinggang Investment, have hit or will soon reach the liquidation line, and there may be a liquidation risk. The application, the company stock since February 8 opening since the suspension is expected to suspend the time not more than 5 trading days.

Listed companies collateral risk of liquidation is not a case. Tianfeng Securities Research said in the latest report, the current market to break the warning line pledged the number of rapid rise in equity pledged to increase the risk of liquidation. "In China's entire equity pledge market, generally 150% -160% set as the warning line of equity pledge, 120% -130% for the open line.Therefore, in order to observe the equity financing pledged by the shareholders of the machinery sector, we choose 160% as a warning line and 130% as a liquidation line. Under this assumption, reviewing 2016, only 6 equity pledged financing broke the warning line in 2016, accounting for 1.3% of the total outstanding pledged equity financing; only A pen equity pledge financing breakthrough flat line, accounting for all outstanding pledged equity financing 0.2% of the number.

In contrast, the current situation of listed companies pledge financing is not optimistic. Such as machinery and equipment sector, the day wind securities statistics found that a total of 188 pledged equity financing broke through the warning line, accounting for 20.5% of the total undisbursed equity pledged financing, an increase of 19.3 percentage points; 53 transactions break through the open positions, accounting for All undisbursed equity pledged financing amount of 5.8%, an increase of 5.6% percentage points, the risk of equity collateral have increased.

Appears in the industry, reduction of new regulations to reduce the mandatory capitalist-side liquidation. Equity pledge market value of 23% of restricted shares, mainly for large shareholders pledge.Usually the stock price close to the warning line, the pledgee can increase liquidity by increasing collateral (stock, cash or real estate.) The risk occurs mainly in the pledge rate Higher companies.According to statistics, the pledge rate of over 40% of the stock only 71. If the investor needs to be closed, still need to abide by the new rules to reduce holdings, that is, "within 90 days through the auction transaction to reduce the total share capital of 1%" and "The rules that a stock traded on the blockbuster should not be reduced within six months." Gao Ting, chief strategist at UBS Securities in China, advises investors or opts to avoid large pledges of shares. "We expect that if investors hold pledges Higher rate, you may be more inclined to lighten up to avoid the stock price breakdown after the open line, the pledger side continued selling pressure pledged to cover the systemic risk is not high, but the equity has been broken through the pledge of the strong line , And a single pledge less than 5% of the share capital, may face the risk of pledged Fang Fang Fang Fang Ping.

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