Financial channel> Xiaorong> The stock market fell into a dog, do you want to stop the fixed vote or stop loss?

The stock market fell into a dog, do you want to stop the fixed vote or stop loss?

Edit: Lisa Source: Good buy business school Date: 2018-02-13


You must be firm in your beliefs and don't be afraid when you encounter a big fall.

Three questions about investment

  1. Is the smart investment product suitable for fixed investment?


In the selection of the base methodology 3.0 smart investment, we said that the values ​​behind the smart investment are: believe in discipline, believe in asset allocation. To put it simply, it is to avoid chasing up and down, anti-humanity (rebalancing function), and a "basket of funds" with weak investment correlation to smooth out risky returns. The investment in smart investment products can better achieve sustainable tracking, dynamic adjustment and balance, and make the income more stable.

For example, to buy robots and Niu Jibao, they are essentially smart investment, and they are suitable for fixed investment. However, Niu Jibao does not currently have a fixed voting function. If you must make a certain investment, you can only add a position at a fixed time each month. After the robot buys, you can see the entrance of the fixed investment, which is smarter and does not require you to I am worried.

In addition to the specific ways of deciding, they have the following differences:

1) Asset side. Robots are passive partial-index funds, paying more attention to the allocation of large-scale markets, following the broader market, and being more stable; while Niu Jibao is an active management fund, and more aggressive.

2) Dynamic adjustment function. The robot has five major rebalance functions, which are more intelligent. The most important thing is the “fluctuation balance” function; while Niu Jibao has only three balance functions.

3) Segment the population. The robot has 18 combinations to meet the more subdivided groups; Niu Jibao has 5 combinations.

4) Purchase starting point. The robot is priced at 2,000 yuan, and Niu Jibao is priced at 1,000 yuan.

In summary, if you are more convinced of quantitative models and algorithms, like transparent things, and want to be more worry-free, you can try robots, and the rate is still lower. If you prefer to take the initiative to invest, and hope to get a surplus in the market, it is not too much trouble, you can try Niu Jibao. Then an automatic fixed vote, one needs to manually add a position every month, it will be fine.

In addition, it should be added that fixed investment generally chooses funds or fund portfolios with large fluctuations and long-term trends. Although the long-term trend of intelligent investment products such as robots and Niu Jibao can be guaranteed, the volatility depends on the specific situation. The stock-type assets accounted for a relatively high proportion (corresponding to a combination of growth and aggressiveness). Otherwise, if the money and bonds account for a large number of smart investment products, the fixed investment is not as good as a one-time investment, and the low-cost effect is not achieved unless You are only because you are forced to save some money every month.

  2. Excuse me, can I use the value average strategy to buy and sell in the same way as controlling the maximum retracement? I think the price-earnings ratio sells well, but I am afraid of this situation. If I plan to sell at a price-to-earnings ratio of 75 times, I will encounter a slow bear. I can’t reach it for 3 years and 5 years, or it’s a small one. The bull market's last market rose to 74 times and turned heads down. So, am I not the same as not only profitable?

I break down your problem into 3 small questions, and then answer them in order:

1) When using the value average strategy, it is recommended not to control the maximum withdrawal and take profit. Because the value-average strategy buys more when the market falls, the market buys less when the market rises, and the redemption of the portion that exceeds the target market value will have a certain impact on the yield of the fixed investment, so the maximum retracement is also changing. The consideration criteria are not so real. Therefore, it is better to use external Take Profit standards, such as: P/E ratio, moving average deviation, etc.

2) When using the P/E ratio to take profit, if you encounter a slow bear, it doesn't matter if you have not reached your planned take profit standard for 3 or 5 years. Instead, continue to vote, waiting for the arrival of a big bull market, you will earn more. Because you have enough time to accumulate enough cheap chips, just wait for the wind to come.

On the contrary, if you decide to invest in the beginning or middle of the bull market, it is easy to reach the take profit point even though you are starting to make a profit. But in fact, your accumulated chips are no longer cheap and not enough. Even if the market rises rapidly, you will not earn the most.

3) Investment is a flexible matter. It is not that the plan is to sell at a price-to-earnings ratio of 75 times, so it must be sold at 75 times! As long as you reach the warning line, you can take profit in batches (generally recommend 2-3 batches of profit), don't think about selling to the highest point. This can also avoid the situation like you said, so as not to miss the opportunity to take profit, but also to obtain higher returns on the basis of risk diversification.

For example: Suppose you plan to sell at a price-to-earnings ratio of 75, you can relax the range appropriately. For example, when PE reaches about 65 times (warning line), you can redeem 1/3 first; when PE reaches 75 times, you can redeem 1/3; when PE reaches 80 times, redeem the last 1 /3.

  3. The stock market has fallen into a dog. If it falls down like this, it really can't stand it. The fund that was fixed is originally profitable. Now it has lost a few points. Do you want to stop loss?

  It is recommended not to stop loss, continue to vote! The more you fall in the market, the more you must strengthen your beliefs.If the amount of funds is sufficient, it will be able to increase the amount of money by increasing the amount of money.

Some people may say: It is easier to say and harder to do. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 10.26% for four consecutive days, and fell below 3,100 points from 3,400 points. In addition, the US stock market plunged madly, and many investors panicked. I can understand this kind of panic, because at this time it is not your own fund that is falling, but everyone is falling. You should be glad that you have chosen the fund to vote. Imagine if you accidentally bought the fund at a high point, this time the account will be more ugly...

I also understand that many people want to stop the cast, or even stop loss. You are worried that the more you make a bigger loss, the more you will return. From the perspective of behavioral economics, everyone has the psychology of loss avoidance, which is the weakness of human nature.

But everyone should know that investment is inherently anti-human. I also believe that friends who choose to vote must also be aware of the fact that fixed investment can overcome greed and fear in human nature and does not require time. Therefore, in the current market, the market is falling, the more you must insist on the fixed investment. Only in this way, can you find cheaper chips and continue to lower the average cost. As long as the market comes to a big level of rebound or bull market, you will I can make a profit.

On the other hand, if you stop the fixed investment or stop loss when the market falls, it is a pity, because you missed the opportunity to flatten the cost! And this opportunity is very rare in the bull market. In my opinion, regardless of the fundamentals of the economy, the market valuation, or the profitability of the company, A-shares will not have systemic risks at present, and the slow-term bullish pattern remains unchanged, and the medium- and long-term is still optimistic (only on behalf of personal opinions, Everyone still needs to think independently.) I have said so much about bitterness, that is, I want everyone to be firm in their convictions and to take a long-term view. Don’t be upset and resentful because of the moment’s loss...

Finally, with the words of a section of investment guru Peter Lynch, I will share with you:

“When the stock market crashes and I am worried about the future, I will recall the fact that there have been 40 stock market crashes in history in the past to appease my fearful heart. I told myself that the stock market crashed. It’s a good thing, let’s have another good opportunity to buy those very good company stocks at very low prices.”

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