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Experts expect this year's enterprises to increase the concentration of the industry to continue the industry reshuffle

Time: 2018-01-11         Source: Beijing Morning News         Author: Beijing Morning News

In 2017, the land market opened higher and lower, and the premium rate of hotspots fell back. The “land king” almost disappeared. However, under the background of the continued tightening of regulatory policies, the overall land acquisition of housing enterprises has remained at a high level. Whether it is a large-scale housing enterprise or a medium-sized housing enterprise, it has strengthened its expansion in land reserves. Looking forward to 2018, is the land market in China cold and hot? Will the housing enterprises still have a high level of enthusiasm? Some industry experts said that in 2018, the concentration of enterprises will increase, the industry reshuffle will continue, and large-scale housing enterprises will increase their M&A opportunities.

Increased land supply

According to the statistics of the Kerry Research Center and the China Index Research Institute, in the first 11 months of 2017, the construction area of ​​the 300-city land market nationwide exceeded 1.7 billion square meters, a significant increase year-on-year. However, there is still some distance from the peak of land transactions in 2013.

Ma Qianli, an analyst at the Kerry Research Center, said, “In 2017, in the case of first-tier cities to increase supply as much as possible, third- and fourth-tier cities adopt urban-based policies to avoid excessive supply of land in high-inventory areas. Upward, but there has not been an explosive growth."

Due to the increase in land supply, the volume of land transactions in some cities has increased. Especially in Beijing, land transactions in 2017 have risen sharply year-on-year. According to statistics from China Index Research Institute and Yahao Institute, the total amount of land transfer in Beijing in 2017 was 279.6 billion yuan, which was more than 225% higher than the total amount of Beijing land transfer in 2016.

Among them, there were 71 residential land transactions in Beijing in 2017, 56 more than the residential land sold in Beijing in 2016. Judging from the transaction of residential land in various administrative districts, as of December 19, 2017, Daxing District had the largest number of residential land transactions, with 14 blocks, ranking first; Fangshan District had 8 residential land sales, ranking second; Fengtai District There were 6 residential land transactions, ranking third.

Earth auction market cooling

Under the background of "the house does not live", the "new price limit, competitive price", "fuse", "shake" and other new local political auctions emerge one after another. Whether it is a first-tier city represented by Beijing or a hot second- and third-tier city, the land market as a whole shows a “cooling down” trend.

On January 19, 2017, Beijing Land Market ushered in the first film of the New Year. Three residential sites attracted more than 20 housing companies and complexes including Ocean, Wuyuan and Vanke to compete. Under the “limited house price and competitive land price” rules, the Xiqiao Street plot in Fangshan District and the Jinhai Lake plot in Pinggu District have entered the residential construction plan reporting stage with 70% of the residential area after tens of rounds of quotation. The gate block of the Mentougou Tanzhe Temple was collected by Beijing Capital, Ocean, Longhu, Poly, and the First Open Consortium for 6.33 billion yuan. The land market is hot.

At the beginning of 2017, the land market in the second and third tier cities was also “hot”. On April 6, 2017, the centralized transfer of 8 plots in the main city of Chengdu attracted more than 100 housing companies. After three blows and draws, the five-hour "fierce" grotto finally ended with a plot of seven plots.

It is worth noting that with the promulgation and implementation of a series of property market regulation policies in 2017, the land auction market has turned from hot to cold. Following the “killing” of many local auctions in the first half of 2017, the land market was “cool” in the second half of the year, and some cities eventually ended the 2017 auction with “flowing”.

The last plot of the Beijing Land Market in 2017 – YQ00-0300-0058, Yanqing New Town, Yanqing District, Beijing, was left untouched at the last minute of the listing on the morning of December 28, 2017. . This is the second homestead on the Beijing Land Market in 2017 following the flow of the Pinggu Xiagezhuang block on November 4, 2017.

Saying goodbye to the city of 2017 is more than one in Beijing. On December 27, 2017, only one housing company registered in a high-quality homestead in Taiyuan City, but it was difficult to escape the results; on December 29, a mixed commercial plot in Nanjing City was always untouched and eventually patted.

M&A has become the main way to get land

In 2017, with the increase in the overall sales scale of housing enterprises, the concentration of the industry has strengthened, and large-scale housing enterprises have actively expanded their land reserves in order to maintain the leading edge of sales scale. In order to reach a new level, medium-sized housing companies are also active in the new land reserve. In this way, the overall land acquisition scale of housing companies in 2017 has increased significantly year on year.

For the trend of China's land market in 2018, Shen Xiaoling, an analyst at Keray Research Center, told the Beijing Morning Post that “the supply of land market in 2018 will closely follow the impact of changes in the real estate market, and maintain the basic stability of market supply and demand by increasing or decreasing supply in a timely manner. Cities that are difficult to increase their land supply, such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, can vigorously promote the old-fashioned projects and urban renewal methods, provide more residential buildings, and supplement the gap in market demand."

"In 2018, the concentration of land acquisition by enterprises will increase. The sales scale of leading real estate enterprises will continue to expand, and the market share will continue to increase. It is expected that the demand for new land reserves will continue to grow. Some medium-sized housing enterprises have proposed near In the past two years, the plan to achieve 100 billion yuan has raised the target of 300 billion yuan in three years, some in order to rise to a new echelon, and some to prevent the emergence of a team. These enterprises that have acquired more land this year will still be next year. The power of the land market is strong. However, with the continued tightening of land market policies, the conditions for land transfer will be more stringent, and small-scale housing enterprises are easily rejected. Shen Xiaoling said.

In Shen Xiaoling's view, in 2018, mergers and acquisitions will still be the main way to acquire some housing enterprises. "At present, the starting price of the land auction market is high, and the floor price of some plots is even higher than the sales price of the surrounding real estate. In order to effectively reduce the cost of land acquisition, some real estate enterprises will still look for opportunities in the M&A market." Shen Xiaoling said that under the background of increasing concentration and high price of land auctions, some small and medium-sized housing enterprises are also facing the crisis of being eliminated. The industry reshuffle will continue, which also gives large-scale housing enterprises the acquisition. opportunity.

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