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Experts predict that this year enterprises will take a concentrated approach to enhance the industry's reshuffle

Time: 2018-01-11         Source: Beijing Morning Post         Author: Beijing Morning News

In 2017, the land market opened higher and lower, while the hot city premium rate dropped back. The "land king" almost disappeared. However, in the context of continued tightening of regulatory policies, the overall size of housing prices still remains high. Whether large-scale housing prices, or medium-sized housing prices, have stepped up the expansion of land reserves. Looking 2018, China's land market is cold is hot? Housing prices will take enthusiasm to it? Some industry experts said that in 2018, companies will increase the concentration of land taken, the industry reshuffle will continue, large housing prices increase the chance of mergers and acquisitions.

Increased supply of land

According to statistics from Kairui Research Center and China Index Research Institute, in the first 11 months of 2017, the gross floor area of ​​the 300 cities in the PRC reached more than 1.7 billion square meters of floor space, representing a substantial increase over the same period of last year. However, there is still some distance from the peak of the land transaction in 2013.

According to Ma Qianli, an analyst at CRI, "In 2017, as cities try to increase their supply in the first-tier cities, third- and fourth-tier cities adopt a metropolitan-owned policy to avoid over-supply of land in high-inventory areas. Up, but no explosive growth. "

Due to the increase of land supply, the volume of some urban land transactions rose. In particular, Beijing saw a sharp year-on-year increase in land sales in 2017. Statistics from China Index Research Institute and Yahao Institution show that the total amount of land transfer fees in Beijing for 2017 is as high as 279.6 billion yuan, an increase of more than 225% over the total amount of land transfer payments in Beijing in 2016.

Among them, there were 71 residential land transactions in Beijing in 2017, 56 more than the residential land transactions in Beijing in 2016. As of December 19, 2017, Daxing District has the largest amount of residential land for sale, with 14 in the first place; Fangshan District has 8 residential properties for sale, ranking second; Fengtai District Turnover residential land has 6, came in third.

Tupai market cooling

Under the backdrop of "housing does not fry", new policies such as "limited real estate prices, competitive prices", "blown off" and "Yaohao" have emerged one after another. Whether it is the first-tier cities represented by Beijing or the hot second- and third-tier cities, the land market as a whole shows a "cool down" trend.

January 19, 2017, Beijing's land market ushered in the first shot of the New Year, 3 residential land attracted, including ocean, Mao source, Vanke more than 20 housing prices and complex participation. In the "limit the price, competitive price" rule, Fangshan District Xilu Street block and Pinggu Jinhaihu plots after dozens of quotations, both with 70% of the self-sustaining upper limit of residential area into the residential construction project investment stage, And Mentougou Tanzhe Temple plots were Jingtou, ocean, Longhu, Poly, the first to open the Commonwealth to 6.33 billion yuan in the bag, the land market heat can be seen.

In early 2017, land markets in second- and third-tier cities are equally "hot." On April 6, 2017, the centralized transfer of 8 parcels in the main city of Chengdu attracted more than 100 home-based enterprises. After 3 blows and draws, the "intense" soil shoot, which lasted 5 hours, finally ended in a floor area of ​​7 blocks.

It is noteworthy that, with a series of market regulation and control policies in 2017 promulgated and implemented, the Turkish film market from hot to cold. After more land slaughter in the first half of 2017, the land market was "calm down" in the second half of the year. Even some cities eventually ended the 2017 land rafting with "streaming".

Beijing land market in 2017 the last piece of land - Yanqing District, Beijing Yanqing New City YQ00-0300-0058 and other plots, as of December 28, 2017 the morning of the transfer of listing is still no one cares about, to end the stream . This is the second land auction on the Beijing land market in 2017 following the streaming of the Xiagezhuang plot in Pinggu on November 4, 2017.

In the "uproar" bid farewell to 2017 in Beijing more than one city. December 27, 2017 Taiyuan, a high-quality homestead only a real estate registration, but failed to escape the results of flow; December 29, Nanjing City, a mixed plot of commercial and commercial has no one is interested, and ultimately streaming.

Mergers and acquisitions as the main way to take

In 2017, with the overall sales growth of housing prices and the intensification of industry concentration, large-scale housing enterprises actively expanded their land reserves in order to maintain the lead in sales scale. Medium-sized housing prices in order to go to a new level, but also on the new land reserve performance. This makes the overall size of housing prices in 2017 year-on-year has seen significant growth.

For 2018 China's land market trends, Ke Xiaorui Research Center analyst Shen Xiaoling told Beijing Morning Post reporter, "the land market supply in 2018 will follow the real estate market changes, through the timely increase or decrease in supply, to maintain the basic stability of market supply and demand Cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, where land supply is unlikely to increase substantially, could push ahead with old projects and urban renewal, providing more housing for housing and supplementing the market demand.

"2018, enterprises will increase the concentration of land will take the lead in the sales of real estate prices will continue to expand, the market share continues to rise, is expected to increase the demand for land reserves will continue to grow.Some medium-sized housing prices proposed near In a year or two, the plan to achieve billions of billions will raise the target of 300 billions in three years, some to rise to new ones and some to prevent falling behind. Those enterprises that take more places this year will still be Land market, but the land market policies continue to tighten the case, the land transfer conditions will be more stringent, small-scale housing prices are easily rejected. "Shen Xiaoling said.

It seems in Shen Xiaoling, 2018, mergers and acquisitions will still be part of the main housing enterprises take the way. "At the moment when the auction price of the soil film market is high, the floor price of some plots has even exceeded the sales price of the surrounding properties. In order to effectively reduce the cost of land taken, some real estate enterprises will still look for opportunities in the M & A market." Shen Xiaoling said that in the context of intensified concentration and higher prices of soil rafts, some small and medium-sized housing enterprises are also facing a crisis of being eliminated and the reshuffle of the industry will continue. This also gives large-scale housing purchase and mergers and acquisitions opportunity.

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