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Experts expect this year's companies to increase the degree of concentration of the industry

Time: 2018-01-11         Source: Beijing Morning Post         Author: Beijing Morning News

In 2017, the land market opened higher and went lower. The premium rate of hot-spot cities declined and the “land king” almost disappeared. However, under the background of continuous tightening of regulatory policies, the overall size of housing enterprises has remained at a high level. Whether it is large-scale housing enterprises or medium-sized housing enterprises, the expansion of land reserves has been strengthened. Looking into 2018, is China's land market cold or hot? Will property companies get enthusiasm? According to industry experts, in 2018, the concentration of companies will increase, the industry reshuffle will continue, and large-scale housing enterprises will increase their M&A opportunities.

Increased land supply

According to the statistical data of the Keruiru Research Center and the China Index Academy, in the first 11 months of 2017, the 300-city land market in China had a turnover of more than 1.7 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase. However, there is still some distance from the peak of land sales in 2013.

According to Ma Qianli, an analyst at the Kelairui Research Center, “In the first tier cities, where supply is increased as much as possible in 2017, the third- and fourth-tier cities use in-city measures to avoid oversupply of land in high-stock areas. Up, but there is no explosive growth."

Due to the increase in land supply, the turnover of some urban lands has increased. Especially in Beijing, land sales in 2017 have increased substantially year-on-year. Statistics from the China Index Research Institute and Yahao Group show that the total amount of land transfer fees for Beijing in 2017 was as high as 279.6 billion yuan, which is more than 225% of the total amount of land transfer fees in Beijing in 2016.

Among them, there were 71 residential land transactions in Beijing in 2017, which is 56 more than the residential land transactions in Beijing in 2016. Judging from the transactions of residential land in various administrative regions, as of December 19, 2017, Daxing District had the largest number of residential land transactions, with 14 blocks, ranking first; Fangshan District had 8 residential residential land transactions, ranking second; Fengtai District There were six residential land transactions and ranked third.

Land auction market cooling

Under the background of "no housing to fry," the new policies of "selling prices, bidding for land prices," "fusing" and "shaking numbers" have emerged. Whether it is a first-tier city represented by Beijing or a hot second-tier or third-tier city, the overall land market shows a “cooling down” trend.

On January 19, 2017, the Beijing Land Market ushered in the first shot of the New Year. Three residential sites attracted more than 20 housing companies and complexes including Ocean, Wuyuan and Vanke. Under the rules of “restricted house prices and competitive land prices”, after several rounds of quotations, the Xiqiao street plot of Fangshan District and the Jinhai Lake plot of Pinggu District were entered into the residential construction project submission stage with a ceiling of 70% of the residential area. The Tantougou Tanzhe Temple land was captured by Beijing Investment, Ocean, Longhu, Poly, and the first open complex with a total of 6.33 billion yuan, which is evident in the land market.

In early 2017, the land market in the second and third tier cities was also “hot”. On April 6, 2017, the concentrated sale of eight parcels in Chengdu's downtown area attracted more than a hundred homeowners. After undergoing three blows and drawing lots, the five-hour "deep" earth auction finally ended with seven parcels of floor prices.

It is worth noting that with the promulgation and implementation of a series of property market regulation policies in 2017, the market for land auctions has turned from hot to cold. Following the “battle” of multiple field shoots in the first half of 2017, the land market was “cooled” a lot in the second half of the year, and even some cities eventually ended their 2017 land auctions with “shooting.”

The last piece of land in Beijing's land market in 2017, the Yanqing New Town YQ00-0300-0058 in Yanqing District of Beijing, remained unattended at the last minute of the listing and transfer as of the morning of December 28, 2017. . This is the second residential land auction on the land market in Beijing in 2017 after the Pinggu Xiagezhuang plot was taken on November 4, 2017.

There are more than one city in Beijing to bid farewell to the year 2017 in “Breakout”. December 27, 2017 A high-quality homestead in Taiyuan was registered by only one real estate company, but it was difficult to escape the flow. On December 29th, a mixed plot in a commercial office in Nanjing was left unattended and eventually flowed.

Acquisitions and acquisitions become the main way to get land

In 2017, with the increase in the overall sales scale of housing enterprises and the increase in industry concentration, large-scale housing enterprises actively expanded their land reserves in order to maintain their leading edge in sales scale. In order to reach a new height, the medium-sized housing enterprises have also performed positively on new land reserves. In this way, the overall scale of housing enterprises in 2017 has seen a significant year-on-year growth.

Regarding the trend of China's land market in 2018, Shen Xiaoling, an analyst at the Keerrui Research Center, told the Beijing Morning Post that “the land market supply in 2018 will closely follow the changes in the real estate market and maintain the basic stability of market supply and demand by increasing or reducing supply in time. The cities where land supply is difficult to increase significantly, such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, can vigorously promote old renovation projects and urban renewal methods, provide more residential housing, and supplement the gap in market demand."

“In 2018, the concentration of enterprises will increase. The sales scale of leading real estate enterprises will continue to expand, and the market share will continue to increase. It is expected that the demand for new land reserves will continue to grow. Some medium-sized housing enterprises have proposed Within a year or two, the plan for achieving 100 billion yuan will be put forward. In the three years, 300 billion yuan will be proposed, some to rise to a new echelon, and others to prevent a fall behind. These enterprises that have won more land this year will still be the next year. The fierce power in the land market, but in the case of land market policies continue to tighten, the conditions for land transfer will be more stringent, small housing enterprises are easily rejected.” Shen Xiaoling said.

According to Shen Xiaoling, in 2018, mergers and acquisitions will still be the main way to get housing for some housing companies. “At the current auction market, the auction price has remained high, and some of the land prices have even exceeded the sales price of the surrounding real estate. In order to effectively reduce the cost of land acquisition, some housing companies will still look for opportunities in the M&A market.” Shen Xiaoling said that in the context of increased concentration and higher prices for land auctions, some small and medium-sized housing enterprises are also facing a crisis that has been eliminated. The industry reshuffle will continue to proceed, which also gives larger-scale housing enterprises to receive mergers and acquisitions. opportunity.

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