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The report suggests that housing stocks account for the largest real estate tax in major cities.

Time: 2018-01-05         Source: China Economic Net         Author: China Economic Net

Economic Daily - China Economic Net Beijing January 5 (Reporter Ma Changyan) On January 4, the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center released the "2018 China Macroeconomic Financial Outlook" report (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") in Beijing. In view of the real estate tax, the report believes that although it is difficult to complete the real estate tax legislation in the short term, it can be divided into batches and sub-projects to gradually land and implement differentiatedly, and key cities with growing stocks ratios can start to levy or raise tax rates.

Regarding the trend of the real estate market in 2018, the report believes that with the strengthening of “domestic housing and non-fried” orientation and the acceleration of “tenant purchases and acquisitions” construction, the real estate market transaction growth rate will continue to decline in 2018.

Among them, the monetization resettlement effect of the shed change is not faded, and the target number of shed change in 2018 will be 5.8 million sets, and the proportion of monetized resettlement will continue to increase. The report estimates that the monetization of the shed change in 2018 will also result in sales of commercial housing of at least 300 million square meters.

The gradual withdrawal of the destocking policy will have a greater impact. Three or four-tier cities that account for more than 60% of the sales area will gradually withdraw from various destocking incentive policies, and commercial housing transactions will lose important support.

Overall, the sales area of ​​commercial housing grew at a rate of -10%~-5% year-on-year. Among them, the sales force in the third and fourth-tier cities has weakened, and the growth rate will once again fall below the first and second-tier cities. The "chain logic" between commercial housing sales and development investment remains unchanged. The slowdown of transactions and tightening of funds will still restrict the follow-up development. The new start-up and land transaction growth rates are not expected to slow real estate investment growth. , Or can achieve positive growth within 5%.

The report believes that in 2018, the four-in-one strict control of “restriction of purchase + limited loan + limit price + limited sales” will continue, and the long-term mechanism will be accelerated with the focus on “merger and acquisition”.

In advancing the "merchandise between hires and purchases," the report suggests that while increasing the supply of land for housing leases in cities where the pressure of population inflows is higher, the supply of land for commercial housing should be well controlled to prevent the formation of "disguised misappropriation" and inducing the rise in land prices and housing prices. The local housing management department should strengthen the cooperation with the Internet and information service companies on government and enterprises, and set up an official trading and service platform for housing leasing to provide basis for housing supply and transaction supervision. It is recommended that individuals apply for rental housing to provide reasonable incentives such as rental subsidies, individual tax credits, and housing fund payments.

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