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@大家人! The situation is grim! Your loan may not come down!

Time: 2017-10-10         Source: China Securities Journal         Author: Chen Yingying

China Securities Journal reporter recently learned that the regulatory authorities have launched investigations and strikes against the chaos of personal consumption loans and operating loan funds entering the real estate market. Guangdong and other places to establish a monthly monitoring mechanism for personal consumption loans, requiring commercial banks to submit monthly monitoring information on personal consumption loan products from October 2017.

Before the National Day holiday, Xiao Yuan, the director of the China Securities Regulatory Commission's Prudential Regulation Bureau, stated that it is necessary to crack down on the “down payment” and strictly investigate the misappropriation of consumer loan funds to prevent the risk of real estate bubbles.

The reporter learned that at present, individual banks have suspended the lending of personal consumer lending business. In addition, a number of banks require personal consumption loans, credit card cash loans and other stock customers to replenish capital consumption vouchers for re-inspection.

Supervised frequency ticket

Experts and brokerage analysts pointed out that the short-term loans of residents are mainly consumer credit. Under the strong performance of consumer credit, the growth rate of household consumption in August showed a downward trend. The main reason may be that some consumer loans were eventually used to purchase houses.

People in the banking supervision departments of Guangdong, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangxi and other places told the China Securities Journal that since the beginning of this year, personal consumption loans of some regions and financial institutions have grown rapidly, and some of the larger and longer-term consumer loans are obviously related to daily consumption. The attributes do not match and there is a risk that credit funds will be diverted into the real estate market.

In this regard, the regulatory authorities are required to comprehensively investigate various types of risk hazards, carry out special investigations on real estate bubble risks, and find out the bottom number. Among the administrative penalties announced by the China Banking Regulatory Commission in mid-to-late September, there are not a few banks that have been punished for misappropriation of personal loan funds. For example, the Zhejiang Banking Regulatory Bureau imposed an administrative penalty of RMB 650,000 on the Hangzhou Branch of China Postal Savings Bank. The main violation of the law (the case) was “the personal consumption loan funds were used to purchase houses”; Hainan Banking Regulatory Bureau The Haikou Rural Commercial Bank successively made administrative punishment decisions. The main violation of laws and regulations (the case) was that “the personal loan was not used to conduct an effective inspection and monitoring analysis of the use of the loan funds. The behavior of the borrower in violation of the contract should be discovered. Not found".

Experts and brokerage analysts predict that the structure and growth rate of personal consumer loans and other businesses will be the next verification focus of the regulatory authorities.

Individual banks suspend lending

Many bankers have admitted to China Securities Journal that this year, under the background of tightening public loan policies, such as state-owned enterprises and local financing platforms, various commercial banks have turned credit resources into personal loans and retail loans. In particular, personal consumption loans, personal credit loans, and credit card cash loans for civil servants, executives of enterprises and institutions have become the focus of competition among banks.

"After basically submitting the information, the loan will arrive within one week. Now not only is the consumer interest rate rising, but the loan time is also lengthened. At present, the interest rate we are giving is 50% of the benchmark interest rate, and more than 300,000 can only go. Entrusted to pay," said a person in charge of a national joint-stock bank.

A person from a city in Beijing said to reporters, "At present, consumer loans are still claiming to be done, but the loan is basically suspended. The head office can't do it." The bank's personal credit loan products could once be credited to 1 million, but at After the regulatory authorities successively issued the requirements for strict inspection of consumer loans, the head office immediately tightened the consumption credits of the branches.

The China Securities Journal reporter learned that most commercial banks are currently re-verifying and adjusting the stock and incremental personal consumption loans and credit loans: for loans that have been issued and not paid, they are required to submit proof of consumption (invoice) , invoices, transfer vouchers, etc., and return visits after the loan; for the stock loans that find doubts and problems after re-inspection, the bank will immediately collect loans, penalty interest, and so on. Bankers admit that it is almost impossible to fully identify the lender's true intentions or to fully control the flow of funds after the loan. “Unless the loan customer transfers funds directly from their own loan account and swipes the card to a developer's account, it is difficult for the bank to identify. As long as the customer withdraws the funds, the capital chain is basically broken. Not to mention that there are now intermediary companies that help loan clients to make money, they are too familiar with the bank's processes, and there are many ways to evade."

Be wary of high leverage in the residential sector

During the National Day, China Securities Journal reporters interviewed banking professionals in Jiangxi, Hainan, Shaanxi and other places and found that despite the over-regulation of regulatory policies, the bank's consumer lending business is still not deserted, reflecting the strong demand of the people.

Many people in the banking industry admit that "the amount of personal consumer loans and credit loans is generally 300,000 to 500,000 yuan. This money can be said to be a drop in the first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, but in many second, third and fourth places. Line cities can pay a down payment for a set or even a few houses."

The research report of Yiju Real Estate Research Institute shows that there are abnormal increases in consumer loans in many regions of the country. The monthly increase in personal consumption loans in Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Sichuan, Hebei and other regions has increased significantly since May. According to its estimated 370 billion yuan new abnormal short-term consumer loans, 90% of the new abnormal loans appeared in the above regions.

Jiang Chao, chief economist of Haitong Securities, said recently that the Chinese residential sector has increased leverage by 20 trillion yuan in the past three years. The total debt of the residential sector has reached 42 trillion yuan, and the proportion of resident debt to household income has exceeded 90%.

The National Financial and Development Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the National Balance Sheet Research Center's latest report on China's Leverage Process in the Second Quarter pointed out that it is necessary to be alert to the risks arising from short-term consumer credit or disguised housing loans. Due to the different nature of consumer loans and mortgage loans, their interest rates and risks are correspondingly larger than mortgage loans. At present, many consumer credits are offered in the form of cash loans to users, especially the unsecured and non-guaranteed The mortgaged credit loan magnifies the probability of future default, and the potential risks brought by it should be paid enough attention by the regulatory authorities.

CITIC Securities analyst Zhang Licong pointed out that since September, the regulatory authorities in Beijing, Jiangsu, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other places have issued a document requesting a strict inspection of consumer loans, and then consumer loans will be the focus of rectification, which will lead to a reduction in the real estate market inflows in the short term. More importantly, in the long run, there is little room for the increase in leverage in the residential sector. China's resident sector leverage has reached a high level after experiencing rapid growth, and it is more difficult for residents to continue to increase leverage.

Xiao Yuanqi previously stressed that the bank's development of consumer lending business must operate according to regulations, comprehensively and truthfully assess the repayment ability of consumers, and cannot push up the debt leverage ratio for business, and it cannot promote the bubble in the real estate sector.

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