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How high is the cost of private investment borrowing?
How high is the cost of private investment borrowing? Economic activity data for June showed that private investment has further slowed down. In June, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the public sector (including state-owned enterprises) further accelerated to 21.2%, while private fixed asset investment showed negative growth for the first time since 2010. In view of the structural disadvantages of private investment for a long time, it cannot fully explain the downward trend of its rapid growth this year, and the rise of the investment risk premium is difficult to quantify. The CICC report focuses on the analysis of the cost of private investment financing year-to-date. Variety.
Even with conservative assumptions, the annualization of private investment in the second quarter of this yearLending ratesIt may also be close to 10%. The year-to-date monetary policy has been more relaxed. The weighted average lending rate in the first quarter of this year has increased by 3 basis points to 5.3% (according to the central bank's monetary policy implementation report). On the other hand, fiscal policy has become more active, and the proportion of mortgages has risen significantly since the fourth quarter of last year. Due to public sector lending rates (3%-4%) andMortgage interest rate(4.5% or so) are significantly lower than the overall weighted average loan interest rate, a rough calculation can be concluded that the interest rate of private enterprise loans has risen significantly this year.
Specifically, CICC estimates that the interest rate of private enterprise loans in the second quarter of this year may have reached 9.9%. It is assumed that the weighted average loan interest rate in the second quarter is the same as that in the first quarter, and the average loan interest rate of the public sector is about 90% of the benchmark interest rate. . Considering that various new forms of public sector loans, such as policy bank loans and some PPP infrastructure investment loans, may have interest rates that are much lower than the benchmark interest rate for loans, this assumption is already conservative; although the public sector has sources of funds other than loans, it is private. Investment has always been funded by more funds, and the proportion of bank loans may not be the proportion of investment; in addition, due to the slowdown in the money supply and bank balance sheet expansion in the second quarter, and the increase in the average interbank lending rate, the second quarter weighted average The loan interest rate may actually have also increased.
Comparison of average loan interest rates between public and private investment
With the “punitive premium” of private investment loan interest rates rising, the public sector (including state-owned enterprises) investment has become the only increase in fixed asset investment in the whole society, and the proportion of private investment has fallen rapidly, which is worrying. The report estimates that the “punitive premium” of private investment interest rates has increased to 6 percentage points in the second quarter compared with the loan interest rates of the public sector and state-owned enterprises, which is 3 percentage points higher than last year. As a result, in a short period of six months, the proportion of private investment in total fixed asset investment has dropped by 4 percentage points. What is even more worrying is that public sector (including state-owned enterprises) investment in June has become the only growth point for fixed asset investment.
Faced with the sharp slowdown in private investment, the government urgently needs to take effective measures to reduce the financing and other costs of private investment in order to improve the efficiency of investment in the whole society and promote balanced economic development. The continued rise in the proportion of public sector investment will depress the efficiency and growth potential of medium and long-term investment.
The report believes that policies that help boost private investment growth include: reducing the financing costs and effective tax rates of private investment (including value-added tax, income tax or social security contributions), and relaxing the entry barriers for private investment in some emerging industries. On the other hand, more coordinated, coherent and market-oriented macroeconomic policy formulation and implementation will also help reduce the risk premium of private investment.
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