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How high is the cost of private investment borrowing?

Time: 2016-07-25         Source: Interface         Author: Ruo o

How high is the cost of private investment borrowing? June economic activity data show that private investment to further slow down. June fixed assets investment in the public sector (including state-owned enterprises) increased further to 21.2% year on year, while private fixed asset investment for the first time since 2010, the first negative growth. In view of the structural weaknesses of private investment, it has not been able to fully explain the declining trend of rapid growth this year, and the increase in investment risk premium is more difficult to quantify. CICC report focuses on the analysis of the cost of private investment financing since the beginning of the year Variety.

Even if the conservative assumptions, the second quarter of this year, the annual investmentLending ratesIt may be close to 10%. Year-to-date monetary policy is further easing - the weighted average lending rate in the first quarter of this year has risen by 3 basis points to 5.3% (according to the central bank's monetary policy enforcement report). On the other hand, fiscal policy has become more positive, and mortgage accounts have risen significantly since the fourth quarter of last year. Due to public sector lending rates (3% -4%) andMortgage rate(4.5% or so) were significantly lower than the overall weighted average lending rate, a rough calculation can be obtained this year, private enterprises lending rates rose significantly conclusions.

Specifically, CICC estimates that private sector lending rates have reached 9.9% in the second quarter of this year, assuming that the weighted average lending rate in the second quarter is flat with the first quarter and the average lending rate in the public sector is about 90% of the benchmark lending rate The This assumption is already conservative, given that the various types of public sector loans, such as policy bank loans and some PPP infrastructure investment loans, may be much lower than the benchmark lending rate. Although the public sector has a source of funds outside the loan, Investment has been more self-financing, the proportion of bank loans may be less than its proportion of investment; In addition, due to the second quarter of the money supply and bank balance sheet expansion slowed down, and the average inter-bank lending rate rise, the second quarter weighted average Loan interest rates may actually be up.

Comparison of Average Interest Rate of Public and Private Investment

With the "punitive premium" of private investment loan rate rising, the investment in public sector (including state-owned enterprises) has become the only increment in the investment in fixed assets, and the proportion of private investment has been declining rapidly. The report estimates that the "punitive premium" of private investment rates has increased to 6 percentage points in the second quarter compared with the lending rates of the public sector and state-owned enterprises, 3 percentage points higher than last year. The result is that within a short period of six months, the proportion of private investment in total fixed assets investment has dropped by 4 percentage points. And more worrying is that in June the public sector (including state-owned enterprises) investment has become the only growth point of fixed asset investment.

In the face of the sharp slowdown in private investment, the government needs to take effective measures to reduce the financing and other costs of private investment in order to improve the efficiency of investment in the whole society and promote the balanced development of the economy. The continued increase in the proportion of public sector investment will reduce the long-term investment efficiency and growth potential.

The report argues that policies that help boost private investment growth include reducing the cost of financing and the effective tax rate (including VAT, income tax or social security contributions) for private investment and relaxing the access threshold for private investment in some emerging industries. On the other hand, more coordinated, coherent and marketable macroeconomic policy formulation and implementation will also help reduce the risk premium of private investment.

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