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Loose monetary policy is the civil usury "curse"

Time: 2012-12-28         Source: melt 360 original         Author: Li Jing

September 29, 2011, for the emergence of the boss of Wenzhou, "running tide", Wenzhou municipal government issued "on the stability of the financial order to promote economic restructuring and development of the views" (hereinafter referred to as "opinions"), ")," "On the one hand asked the bank" not pumping, not pressure loans "Lending ratesFloating up to a maximum of 30%, to ensure that the beginning of the year to achieve the new target of 100 billion. On the other hand, "the business owners to go, to urge them to return as soon as possible, organize the disposal; to continue to avoid, public security, labor and other departments to be a strong intervention, thorough investigation; Go out, leave the bankruptcy, to strict treatment.
There is no doubt that Wenzhou has emerged the situation of civil usury financial collapse. In fact, this situation as early as expected, whether it is Inner Mongolia or Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the past few years, the winds of civil society intensified, almost out of control. OrdosPrivate lendingThe interest rate is 30%, Wenzhou is also more than 24%. If it is clear from the final outcome, it is easy to conclude that "the government's currency is leading to a civil financial break", so many people call for "the government can not stick to the line of monetary contraction, and immediately adopt a loose monetary policy." But if you look at the beginning of the game, the conclusion is just the opposite, it is precisely because the past monetary easing led to some areas of civil financial break. This is like a drug addiction, detoxification is very painful, it was said that this pain is because there is no continued drug abuse caused.
How does monetary easing promote large-scale civil usury? Looking back on Chinese history, about the beginning of 1993, there has been a wave of usury in China. At that time, Shenzhen and other citiesBank deposit rateTo more than 25%, the loan interest rate of more than 30% is common, and today's civil usury almost almost. At that time not only the city credit cooperatives can be high interest rates, trust companies, securities companies are actively involved in them, and even many commercial banks have joined the ranks, many commercial banks branch out of business, the country also appeared in Wuhan, Haikou And other funds trading center, member units are the country's commercial banks and non-bank financial institutions. Its lively degree is worse than it is now.
Why did you get usury at that time? From the demand side of funds, mainly in 1992, the loose monetary policy led. In 1992, after the small Pingnan tour, the country launched the "Great Leap Forward" wind, money and credit soared, regardless of investment growth rate or money, credit growth rate of more than 35%, so, 1 year after the obvious currency Expansion, to June 1993 began to macro-control, introduced 16 measures. Of course, the main measure is to tighten the credit gate, rectify and standardize the financial order. Money and credit in the loose after the sudden tightening, there must be financial constraints, many cities appeared "flats", the most typical representative of Hainan and Guangxi Beihai City, these "flats" until ten years later Clean up In the early days of monetary tightening, businesses and individuals are often not prepared, and are expected to remain in a state of rising bubbles, so raising money at all costs becomes their common choice.
The root cause of the usury boom in 2011 can also be explained by the loose monetary policy in 2008. The central bank to take monetary stimulus, must create "hot industry" and "cold industry", such as real estate that rely on large-scale capital industry is hot industry, and those who rely on self-accumulation, such as family retail industry is cold industry. "Hot industry" in the production of access to capital costs cheap, but in the sales side is not necessarily costly cheap, because the buyer is not just to see the mortgage interest rate is low, and there are such a threshold limit down payment. The higher the price there is a high real estate is expected, but the threshold will become high, so you need a lot of private financing to enter this area, which is equivalent to improving the conditions of capital formation. In the process of financing the financing, the private interest rate will be due to the high real estate speculation is expected to be significantly raised, and ultimately evolved into usury.
Therefore, that monetary tightening to engage in small and medium enterprises is a fallacy, it is monetary easing to create a civil usury disaster. The same time as

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